A nice 40-yard catch from Mike Wallace was the only thing that kept us from two winning prop tickets for Sunday Night Football. However, we’ll settle for 1-1 thanks to Antonio Brown, because Monday Night Football has a very nice player prop from Bovada sportsbook.
James White O/U 24 ½ Receiving Yards
James White is seldom used in the run game, but his ability to break big plays on third down and passing plays makes him a special weapon out of the backfield for the Patriots. The problem for tonight on the road is the Dolphins’ defense doesn’t allow a lot of big receiving plays from running backs, and the game script might mean White is seldom used altogether.
Before last week where White’s 4 catch, 32-yard game got him back into relevancy, the three weeks prior to that, he caught just 4 passes for 13 yards. That could have been because the Patriots were blasting their opponents by a combined score of 109-41, but even with last week in hand, White still had a big game.
One of those three games prior to Week 13 was against the Dolphins at home, where the Pats won easily 35-17. If New England breaks out to an early lead in this one as -11 favorites on the road, there is a chance White takes a backseat to Rex Burkhead again.
Burkhead is also pretty competent in the passing game, but he and Dion Lewis also being in the mix hurts White’s chances of breaking off a long catch and run.
In games where White has posted nice games receiving, it was usually because of a long catch and run. In fact, in the six games where White had a receiving play of 16 yards or more this season, if you take those plays away, three of those games he would have finished with 12 or less receiving yards.
As long as Miami can avoid giving up one of those to White, I think the under is a much better NFL pick if the Pats are also winning this game easily.