Week 14 Betting Trends & Angles: Home Field Favors Rams Over Eagles

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, December 5, 2017 2:55 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2017 2:55 PM UTC

Our Week 14 NFL betting trends and betting angles uncovers a highly profitable home-field advantage situation for the Rams, likes Matt Ryan and the Falcons to stun the Saints, favors the Chiefs against AFC West rivals, and is banking on a shootout in the Redskins-Chargers clash.

Matt Ryan Steps Up as Home Underdog

The Falcons (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) crossed the fence from favorites to underdogs in early wagering for their home date vs. the Saints (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) Thursday night. Oddsmakers opened Atlanta -2 following Week 13 action last Sunday, adjustments moving New Orleans to 1 to-2.5 point chalk across these best-rated online sportsbooks as of Tuesday. If Atlanta goes off as the underdog, watch out. Quarterback Matt Ryan is historically good in this spot.

The Falcons are 8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS catching points at home with Ryan under center. They have won and covered seven of eight when handicapped a field goal or less. Versus NFC South opponents, Ryan is 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS overall. The four-time Pro Bowler lights up his rivals for 365.8 yards, 2.0 TDs and 0.4 INTs on 37.8 passes.

Favor Home Team in Week 14 When Top Winners Clash

The Rams (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) and Eagles (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) are two of four teams in the NFC with 9 victories or more. A top winner’s angle suggests favoring L.A. at Memorial Coliseum in this much-anticipated showdown.

In Week 14, the home side is 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS since 1990 when two teams clash sporting a winning percentage of 75 percent or better. It is covering a -3.0 spread by 7.9 points per game, winning by double digits in eight.

This late-season, home-field advantage angle isn’t confined to just Week 14, either. Not including the playoffs, it is 26-8-1 ATS after Week 11 over the last 27 years. As chalk, the home team is 23-4 SU and 21-5-1 ATS.

Chiefs Own Division Rivals

After beginning the season 5-0 SU and ATS and topping many NFL power rankings, the Chiefs (6-6 SU & ATS) have lost and failed to cover six of their last seven games. The lone victory in this losing stretch came against the Broncos (29-19) in Week 8. It was also their last played vs. an AFC West rival.

K.C. is 15-2 SU and 12-5 ATS against division foes dating to December 2014. It lost at Oakland 31-30 in Week 7 after Raiders quarterback Derek Carr found Michael Crabtree for a 2-yard touchdown pass on the final play of the game. One has to go back to Week 2 of the 2015 season vs. Denver to uncover the other defeat. It was another late-game stunner as the Broncos' Bradley Roby returned a Jamaal Charles fumble 21 yards for a touchdown with 27 seconds remaining to complete a 31-24 comeback win.

The Chiefs have won every other Arrowhead Stadium contest by 6 points or more in this situation. The Raiders are an ideal opponent to turn K.C.’s season back on the right foot if its dominance over the AFC West continues.

Cousins, Rivers Destined for Skins-Chargers Shootout?

The ‘over’ is 17-5-1 when Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins is under center as a road underdog in his career. A combined score of 51.3 points is 4.1 greater than a 47.2 average total under these conditions. Washington posts 23.5 points per game, Cousins averaging 1.7 TDs and 7.5 yards per passing attempt.

Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, meanwhile, has played to the ‘over’ in all five games hosting an NFC East opponent in his career. The Chargers put up 29.0 points per game, scoring more than their projected team total in each. Rivers has thrown for over 1,000 yards in his last three games, attempting greater than 30 passes in each. The Chargers offense is rolling:

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