Week 13 Trends: History Indicates Shootout in Superdome

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, November 28, 2017 3:35 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 28, 2017 3:35 PM UTC

Our Week 13 NFL situational trends and angles are 'over/under'-centric. Check out which way you should wager in the Panthers-Saints and Browns-Chargers matchups. Also, have you been riding this home dog ‘unders’ train? Let us explain.

Home Underdog ‘Unders’ Cashing

The ‘under’ is 21-5-2 (81 percent) when home underdogs are catching more than a field goal on the NFL oddsboard this season. Offense is sputtering in this spot, the home team averaging 14.6 points per game. Four matchups trigger this situation in Week 13: Patriots at Bills (+8.5), Rams at Cardinals (+7), Eagles at Seahawks (+5) and Steelers at Bengals (+6). The Chiefs at Jets (+3) feature, too, if market adjustments go in favor of Kansas City.

Expect correction at some point, but some of these matchups look very favorable for the trend to continue this weekend. Take the Bengals-Steelers clash, for example. Cincy averages 16.8 points at Paul Brown Stadium hosting Pittsburgh in 14 years under head coach Marvin Lewis, never scoring more than 23 in a contest. The Steelers’ 17.5 points allowed per game entering the contest is slightly less than average (19.5) in this span.

Points Aplenty for Carolina, Cam Newton at Saints

The ‘over’ is 13-4 (77 percent) when Cam Newton leads the Panthers on the road in a game with a total above 47 points. Oddsmakers opened Carolina’s visit to the high-flying Saints at 48 with no adjustments as of Tuesday morning. If it creeps up, look out.

In 17 previous contests, the Panthers or their opponents have put up 30 points or more in all but two in this situation. Newton and his offense average 30.4 points per game, while the defense yields 32.0, respectively. The combined score (62.4) is soaring past a 49.9 average total by 12.5 points per game.

Five of these have come against the Saints where the two have tallied 51 points or more in each. At least one team has reached 41 points in every game as well, nearly covering the bet solo. The last matchup (2016) in New Orleans was a barnburner, the Saints winning 41-38 and sending the Panthers to a 1-5 start. You can bet Newton wishes to avenge the loss. The 2015 MVP has never been surlier in a post-game presser than after that defeat:

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

VIDEO: Cam Newton's entire 90 second presser after #Panthers 41-38 loss to the #Saints. Carolina 1-5 heading in to bye week #KeepPounding pic.twitter.com/PbmoYWKN3W

— Daren Stoltzfus (@DarenStoltzfus) October 16, 2016

Browns ‘Over’ Alert

Since 2015, the Browns allow 29.3 points per game on the road. The hapless defense has surrendered 24 or more in 20 of 21 contests, including 30 or more in four of five this season. Cleveland has allowed opponents to surpass their projected team total in all but one game in this span. It is about the most consistent trend in the otherwise unpredictable NFL.

Where this becomes most profitable is against teams in which Cleveland can compete. Versus those with a losing record, the ‘over’ is 10-1, surpassing a 43.8 average total by a touchdown per game. The Browns offense is the difference-maker. It averages 20.6 points per game in this spot, as opposed to 13.2 against winning teams. The L.A. Chargers enter 5-6 SU and 6-4-1 ATS overall.

comment here