Week 13 Player Prop Odds & Predictions: NFL Picks

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, December 1, 2013 3:02 PM UTC

Sunday, Dec. 1, 2013 3:02 PM UTC

My prop picks are back once again to start the turn into the home stretch of the NFL regular season. Only six weeks of football remain until the start of the playoffs, every ounce of value has to be extracted with our NFL picks.

Follow along and see if you think these two touchdown props have as much value as I think they do. While both are somewhat of a long shot, even a one unit bet on both might turn into healthy profit on Sunday. All of these NFL odds come from Bet365.

TD Scorers

The first name on here might shock you a little bit, but as a one-unit value play, it might be a great prospect. Brent Celek only has 19 receptions on the season for the Eagles. He is splitting time with rookie Zach Ertz, and neither one of the TEs seem too involved in the normal passing game.

However three of Celek’s 19 receptions have gone for touchdowns this season, and he still creates a lot of mismatches in the red zone for the Eagles. Nick Foles threw two of Celek’s three touchdowns, and I haven’t even gotten to the best part.

The Eagles welcome in the Cardinals from all the way across the country, so not only do they lose several pressure hours in travel, but they are statistically the worst team in the NFL defending the tight end position. The Cardinals have given up 11 touchdowns to opposing tight ends, two more than the next team, and more than double the league average of five this season.

Celek scored last week, and his touchdown price this week is at NFL odds of +225, more than enough to put a flier unit or even half of a unit on it. Take a calculated risk on Celek to find the end zone for a second straight week.

I also really like Celek’s receiving yards total of 27 ½ to go over as well. This is priced at -120, and is also at Bet365.

Be sure to check out our:

NFL Picks: Week 13 Fades & Games to Avoid

NFL Picks: Week 13 Value Picks 

My Pick: Brent Celek TD Scored (+225)

It seems to be the week of the tight end in Week 13, as my next guy also happens to play the position, and plays it well. Martellus Bennett has found the end zone five times this season, including one last week with Josh McKown under center. While Cutler looked for Bennett early in the season in the red zone, McKown has reestablished a rapport with the Black Unicorn over the last few games. The Bears have to throw the ball because of how bad their defense is, and Bennett is benefiting.

Not only is Bennett more than capable of finding the end zone against the horrible Vikings, only the Cardinals have given up more TDs to the tight end than Minnesota. The Vikings have given up 9 touchdowns to tight ends this season, and at +140, the value is there with Bennett to score this week. 

Although the Vikings haven’t given up a touchdown to a tight end in the last two weeks, they played two teams with no tight end to speak of, either by choice or injury. The Packers and Seahawks may not have tight ends, but the two weeks before, Jason Witten and Jordan Reed dominated the Vikings’ defense to the total tune of 17 receptions for 188 yards and three touchdowns. This sounds like the type of defense I am going to try and exploit with a touchdown prop in the NFL Odds. 

My Pick: Martellus Bennett TD Scored (+140)
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