Week 13 NFL Picks: Top Value ATS Plays

Nikki Adams

Saturday, November 29, 2014 7:58 PM GMT

Week 13 NFL betting serves up many stellar matchups from divisional clashes to spot pivotal contests with playoff implications for teams in the hunt. Find out which games we've highlighted for your NFL picks, either as straight up bets or parlays.

Broncos -1.5 over Chiefs
The divisional rivalry between the Broncos and Chiefs, marks the fourth meeting between Peyton Manning and Alex Smith in their respective colours. To date, Alex Smith is 0-3 SU against Peyton and the Broncos having lost 27-17 (at Denver) and 35-28 (at Kansas) last season and 24-17 in week 2 of this season. Both teams come into this game needing the win to keep their title hopes alive. Broncos are currently in pole position with an 8-3 SU record, underscored by a 39-36 win over the Dolphins at Mile High in week 12 NFL betting. The Chiefs trail with a 7-4 SU record, underscored by a shocking loss to the Oakland Raiders on the road as the 7-point chalk in week 12 NFL odds.

Bet on tonight's game props with SBR's Props Comparison

On balance, this clash cuts fine with divisional implications on the line. But when it comes down to backing a team on your NFL picks, the Broncos have the edge. When push comes to shove, the  Broncos are in a league of their own. Case-and-point, the way they bounced back last week against the Dolphins compared to the Chiefs loss to the Raiders. Indeed, last season, the Chiefs started to falter down the stretch, winning only two of their last seven games after starting 9-0 on the season. Could the loss to the Raiders be a sign the burden of expectation weighs heavily on their shoulders.

NFL Picks: Broncos -1.5 at BetOnline

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Dolphins -7.0 over the Jets
The Miami Dolphins might have lost last week, but they showed plenty of fight and gumption that augurs well for this matchup. Certainly, those adjectives can't be used to describe the Jets in their abysmal 38-3 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Jets are so off colour and off form, they cut a poor figure on the NFL betting floor. This season they boast a 2-8-1 ATS mark with a whopping 11.5-point margin of defeat, marking the worst performers against the spread this season. Miami Dolphins by contrast are 7-4 ATS with a 6-point margin of victory. Looking at just their winning accounts, each and every win was by double-digits. In other words, when the Dolphins win they win big. Few NFL bettors would consider backing the Jets to the victory in this game. Nothing about their current form suggests they're on the verge of such an upset. The quarterback brouhaha doesn't help their NFL stock either. Needless to say, the Dolphins practically leap off the page as the value NFL pick as the road chalk. Watch if they don't cover in a big way. Take the Dolphins as the 7-point faves on your NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Dolphins -7.0 at 5Dimes
Bonus NFL Picks: Two-team Parlay with Broncos at -1.5 and Dolphins at -7.0

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Patriots +3.0 over Packers
The NFL betting public is backing the Patriots over the Packers in a big way. Approximately 65% of the bets coming down the wire have been recorded with the Patriots as the 3-point road underdogs. That isn't surprising given the fact the Patriots are one of the hottest teams in the league, riding a seven-game winning streak which includes defying the odds on several occasions. In fact, the Patriots have been matched as the underdogs more times this season than they have been in recent memory. The glaring statistic, they are 4-0 SU and ATS when priced as the underdogs on the NFL odds board, all while boasting a startling 21.2-point margin of victory. As road underdogs, they are 2-0 SU and ATS with an 18.5-point margin of victory. Those are simply not stats to ignore. Granted the Packers are a perfect 5-0 SU at home and 4-0-1 ATS with a 26.8-point margin of victory at home. If there were one sticking point, it's the fact that they haven't quite been challenged by a team of the Patriots' undeniable quality or by a quarterback of Tom Brady's class. It remains to be seen which side of the coin triumphs on Sunday, but the money looks to be on the Patriots as the tempting 3-point underdogs.

NFL Picks: Patriots +3.0 at BookMaker
Bonus NFL Picks: Three-team parlay with the Broncos -1.5, Dolphins -7.0 and the Patriots +3.0

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