Week 13 NFL Picks of the Day

Darin Zank

Sunday, November 30, 2014 1:14 PM GMT

This handicapper is hoping Week 13 trends chalky, because four of the five free NFL picks we conjured up for Sunday are favorites. Here's a handful of picks; take 'em for what they're worth.

 

Ravens -6/46 vs. Chargers
Baltimore hosts a San Diego team coming cross-country to play a game that will start at 9 am Charger-time. Both teams have won two games in a row, and both teams are part of a five-team tie for the AFC wild-card race at 7-4. But one thing sticks out for us in this match-up; the Ravens can run the ball, and San Diego can't. So far this NFL season teams that have outrushed their opponents have covered the spread 68 percent of the time. So we like Baltimore for our NFL picks, especially at less than a touchdown.

Free NFL Pick: Ravens -6 at Heritage

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Bills -3/42 vs. Browns
Buffalo looked great for a team that had to pack up on short notice and play a “home” game Monday night in Detroit, although that was, of course, against the Jets, and everything is relative. But the Bills are 6-5, led mostly by their fourth-ranked defense and a reborn Kyle Orton, who owns a 12/3 TD/INT ratio. Cleveland, meanwhile, may be 7-4 but it's been living dangerously. The Browns rank 21st in defense, they're getting outrushed by 19 yards per game and they've won four games, including last week in Atlanta, by a total of 10 points. And QB Brian Hoyer, while receiving some well-deserved recognition, has thrown four interceptions against one touchdown pass over the last three games. So we like Buffalo for the win and the cover.

Free NFL Pick: Bills -3 at Heritage

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Colts -9.5/51 vs. Redskins
Washington has started three different quarterbacks this season, gotten indifferent play from all three (a combined 13/13 TD/INT ratio) and yet it's 3-3 ATS on the road this year, and could be 4-2 or even 5-1. The Redskins can run the ball a little, and their defense hasn't been bad, ranking 10th overall, ninth vs. the run. Washington covered as a four-point dog at Philly earlier this year, won outright as a nine-point dog at Dallas and last week covered NFL odds at +9 at San Francisco. Meanwhile, the line on this game is probably tilted toward Indy, a public betting favorite playing at home.

Free NFL Pick: 'Skins +10 at Bovada

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Texans -7/42.5 vs. Titans
It doesn't really matter at the moment who Houston plays at quarterback; their guys are interchangeable. The Texans also supposedly get Arian Foster back this week, but that doesn't matter much, either, considering even as he missed time the running game still ranked third in the league at 137 YPG. Houston has outrushed opponents this season by 23 YPG; Tennessee has been outrushed by 56 YPG. And as mentioned above outrushing one's foes is a great way to cover spreads in the NFL. Also, Houston beat Tennessee in Nashville back in October 30-16, outrushing the Titans 212-36.

Free NFL Pick: Texans -7 at The Greek

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Rams -6/42 vs. Raiders
St. Louis owns victories this season over both of last year's Super Bowl entrants, and the 49ers, and last week it gave the Chargers a tough game out in San Diego. The Rams have outrushed three of their last four opponents. Oakland, meanwhile, ranks dead last in the league in both rushing and time-of-possession, and with ranks like that we almost find it hard to believe the Raiders are 6-5 ATS. Oakland might also be ripe for a letdown, after upsetting Kansas City last time out for its first victory of the season. Our pick on this game is more of a fade on the Raiders, than a play on St. Louis.

Free NFL Pick: Rams -6 at Bookmaker

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