Week 13 NFL Picks: Packers Focused on Ending Lions' Winning Streak

Kevin Stott

Monday, November 30, 2015 8:01 PM GMT

The Detroit Lions host the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field in Motown on Thursday Night. Let's break down the NFL odds for this game and see what are our selected NFL picks for you to profit from.

After losing to the Bears on Thanksgiving in Green Bay, the Packers are now chasing the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North and in need of a Win here at Ford Field in Motown on Thursday night against Matt Stafford and the upstart Lions. When these two met just weeks ago at Lambeau Field, Detroit ended a 25-game winless run in Wisconsin, so the Packers will certainly have Revenge on their minds. Let’s take a look at the series Trends, recent scores, Injuries and any other relevant information for this game and try to come up with some solid picks for this Week 13 Thursday primetime game knowing the Yin and Yang of the NFL.

 

Odds Overview
Gree Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions: Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) head across Lake Michigan to Ford Field in Detroit on Thursday night to face the suddenly rejuvenated Detroit Lions (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS) in an NFC North affair which is now very important to the visitors and one on which they’ll have Revenge on their minds after being upset by the Lions in Green Bay in Week 10. Current (Monday morning) odds have the visiting Packers as 3-point favorites (Pinnacle) with the Total (Points) posted at 46 (Pinnacle). In the Money Line (Winner) marketplace, the Packers are -175 favorites with the host Lions priced at +150 on the takeback as Home underdogs (SIA). The Green Bay Packers Total Team Points has been set at 25 (Ladbrokes) while the Detroit Lions Team Team Points is at 22 (Ladbrokes) for this game.

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Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers (347 PF-212 PA) come into this game off a surprise Loss to their heated rivals, the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving Day night at Lambeau Field in Week 11 play, so with the Minnesota Vikings (8-3) win over the Falcons in Atlanta on Sunday, the Packers (7-4) find themselves in the rare position off chasing the NFC North divisional leaders. And in the forefront of Green Bay’s (24.9 ppg, #9 in NFL) mind here in Detroit will be the 18-16 setback the Lions handed the Packers in Week 10, putting them in this precarious position where a Wild Card berth may the only path to the Postseason with any Home-field Advantage may now be gone like Gary Busey. Here, expect Green Bay to try to establish RBs Eddie Lacy and James Starks to try to take some pressure off beleaguered QB Rodgers (33-29 ATS on Road) and use WR Randall Cobb, WR Davante Adams and TE Richard Rodgers when needed. If Green Bay falls behind by 7 or more, expect Head Coach Mike Holmgren (95-68-4 ATS) to then have to think “Pass first” with a Loss here making the rest of Green Bay’s Regular Season a potential nightmare with maximum Stress. One thing can’t be stressed enough: Losing Jordy Nelson was like losing a leg and there are few if any Injuries in the NFL that have affected the team as much as his. Besides Nelson (Knee), Green Bay (12/1 to win Super Bowl 50, Ladbrokes) has some Injury concerns with Rookie (Stanford) WR Ty Montgomery (Ankle), C Corey Linsley (Ankle), DB Micah Hyde (Leg), CB Damarious Randall (Knee) all G Bryan Bulaga (Ankle) all listed as Questionable for this game while WR Jared Abbrederis (Ribs) is expected to return early December, so it’s about time. Also for Green bay, S Sean Richardson (Neck), TE Andrew Quarless (Knee), DT Josh Boyd (Ankle) and LB Sam Barrington (Ankle) are all still stuck on the Injured-Reserve List with Kansas State-product Nelson. For the Packers, having Bulaga in this one to help the overworked OL will be needed to expect him to do everything to be ready here.

 

Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions (230 PF-288 PA, W3) will be ready for this game like no other and ever since new Offensive Coordinator Jim Bob Cooter came to Motown, the Lions Offense seems to be free like the Hippies were in the Sixties. Leading that charge has been QB Matthew Stafford (19-26-1 ATS at Home) with heavy Passing doses of star WR Calvin Johnson (921 yards), WR Golden Tate (553 yards) and surprisingly, RB Theo Riddick (503 Receiving yards, 9.2 ypc, 3 TDs). The Lions rank #7 in the NFL in Passing (270 ypg) but are dead last (32nd) in the NFL rushing the football despite the presence of RB Riddick (84 yards) and Rookie Ameer Abdullah (347 yards). On the Injury tip for the Lions (350/1 to win Super Bowl, 10Red), S Glover Quin (Ankle), WR Lance Moore ( Ankle), G Larry Warford (Concussion), T Corey Robinson (Ankle), DT Gabe Wright (Ankle) and CB Alex Carter (Ankle) are all listed as Questionable for Thursday’s game while CB Rashean Mathis (Concussion), CB Josh Wilson (Knee), DT Andre Fluellen (Undisclosed), LB DeAndre Levy (Hip), DT Tyrunn Walker (Ankle), RB Zach Zenner (Chest), C Darren Keyton (Knee) and CB Alex Carter (Ankle) remain on the Lions Injured Reserve List.

 

Recent Series Trends and Best Betting Approach
As mentioned, when these two last played, the at Lambeau Field in Green Bay in Week 10, the Packers were upset by Detroit, 18-16, losing outright as 10½-point favorites, the first Win for the Lions in Wisconsin in 25 meetings so there’s no doubt that The Packers will be focused, especially after losing to the Bears, also at Home, on Thanksgiving Day night in Week 12 in their last outing. You know something’s wrong in Brown County when the Lions and Bears are beating the Packers in Green Bay. And I’m not sure if Nostradamus talked of this in his Quatrains but best beware, brother. Cheese has always been more powerful than Felines on this planet—just barely—but perhaps the worm is turning Bubba Gump. Coming in here, both teams will strangely get the normal 6 Days of Rest after both playing on Thanksgiving in Week 12 last Thursday and in this meeting last year here in the Motor City, Green Bay lost 19-7 in Week 3 getting 1½ points.
Because of the Lions upset Win at Lambeau and because the Bears just did a number on the Packers, expect a focused performance from the Packers for all 60 minutes fearing what this Lions team can do to their collective psyches and potential Record (6-5) by sweeping the season series. And Detroit has nothing left to play for and would love nothing more than to be the Fly in the Packers’ proverbial Ointment. Green Bay was made a 6-point chalk in the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year odds released late Spring and the Advanced Line here was also Packers -6, so you can see what the Lions thrashing of the Eagles and the Bears upset at Green Bay on Thanksgiving did to the number. Although it seems the value may now be on a desperate Green Bay side, the Lions can Win this with guys like Johnson, Tate, Riddick, Abdullah and TE Eric Ebron (348 yards, 3 TDs) all clicking, the Packers are 6-3 ATS the L9 in this series and fueled by Fear and Revenge and Expectations should find a way to top the Lions here and end their impressive 3-game Win Streak. Hey, please give that Cooter boy a raise.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Green Bay Packers 31 Detroit Lions 23
NFL WEEK 12 FREE PICKS: Packers -3 -120 (5Dimes), Over 46½ -128 (Bet365)

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