Week 13 NFL Game-By-Game Totals Picks: Dolphins-Bills Among 'Overs'

Wednesday, November 28, 2018 2:11 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 28, 2018 2:11 PM UTC

The byes are complete and we will have our normal complement of 16 totals each week for the rest of the regular season. Last week the "unders" had an 8-7 edge, making the higher scores 88-87 after 12 weeks.

Note: The NFL odds for each contest are listed after the home team and are from YouWager.

Saints at Cowboys (o/v 53)

In spite of the points New Orleans is scoring, they are 6-5 "under" on the season. Also, when the total is 49.5 or higher and a team like Dallas just forced three or more turnovers, against an opponent who came up with four or more turnovers, the "under" is 25-6. Pick: Under

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Colts at Jaguars (o/v 47.5)

This will be a harder call because Jacksonville will have a new play-caller, a new quarterback and no Leonard Fournette, who is suspended for fighting. The NFL odds on the total appear rather close, but the "under" would seem the wiser choice with the Jaguars in flux. Pick: Under

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Chargers at Steelers (o/v 51)

After such a frustrating loss at Denver, expect Pittsburgh to be ready to go. They are 8-1 "over" as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points the last two seasons. Pick: Over

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Panthers at Buccaneers (o/v 56)

Carolina and Tampa Bay are in the top 10 in scoring this season. The Buccaneers' defense is giving up almost 31 PPG, and in the past three weeks the Panthers have permitted 34 PPG. Pick: Over

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Ravens at Falcons (o/v 48)

Baltimore scored 34 points last week, but two of their touchdowns came on a punt return and scoop and score. With Lamar Jackson expected to start again for the Ravens, this will be his first road test. Atlanta's offense has gone colder than "Matty's Ice's" nickname at 17.3 PPG. Pick: Under

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Browns at Texans (o/v 48)

The Cleveland offense has looked good the last three weeks under Baker Mayfield, but Houston can create havoc with defensive pressure from four guys and still play coverage. The Browns are 9-2 "under" off one or more "overs." Pick: Under

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Bills at Dolphins (o/v 40; tied for lowest total)

Buffalo has played three straight "overs" and Miami has played a trio of "unders." Though these AFC East rivals have mostly played "unders" in South Florida, because both can make mistakes, it's hard to overlook that the Dolphins are 15-5 "over" at home. Pick: Over

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Bears at Giants (o/v 45)

The lower score is the right play. What makes the situation more confusing is the Chicago defense, which has come up with turnovers that produce or lead directly to points. Sticking with the original thought, yet with trepidation. The Giants who are 22-10 "under" as an underdog the last three seasons. Pick: Under

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Broncos at Bengals (o/v 43.5)

Not sure how Cincinnati scores much at all with nearly all its offensive resources diminished. Also, when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and teams like the Bengals are off three or more consecutive losses and playing in December, the "under" is 33-11. Pick: Under

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Rams at Lions (o/v 55)

This NFC matchup is about tempo. The last three Rams games have been "overs." In Detroit's case, they are on a 4-1 "under" move. It would seem more likely Los Angeles would have a stronger case and they are 9-2 "over" after playing a game at home. Pick: Over

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Cardinals at Packers (o/v 44.5)

Logic would dictate an "over" with Green Bay at home. Yet, when you consider Arizona's offensive problems and the Packers hardly a robust offensive team, a 28-13 final score makes a great deal of sense. Pick: Under

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Chiefs at Raiders (o/v 56; highest total)

This total looks to be dead on. Maybe the easiest way to look at this for your NFL picks is using these AFC West rivals' scoring averages. Kansas City tallies 38 PPG and Oakland 17 PPG. Pick: Under

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Jets at Titans (o/v 40; tied for lowest total)

December road teams like the New York Jets off a setback of 10 or more points to a division rival are 35-11 "under" since 2009. Pick: Under

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Vikings at Patriots (o/v 48.5)

These clubs are 7-1 "under" in their past four contests. Look for both teams to move the ball with regularity but will have struggles once they reach the 25-yard line and have more field-goal attempts than anticipated. Pick: Under

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49ers at Seahawks (o/v 46.5)

The Seattle offense is clicking and with their ability to run, they have been scoring the points of late. As long as San Francisco reaches their road average of 20 points, the "over" is a solid play. Pick: Over

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Redskins at Eagles (o/v 43.5)

The Philadelphia defense has obvious weaknesses, particularly in the secondary. But does Washington have the ability to exploit those will Colt McCoy at quarterback? Probably not. Also, the Eagles are 8-0 "under" at home off a division contest the last three seasons. Pick: Under

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Check out SBR’s NFL game-by-game ATS picks.
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