Week 13 NFL Picks: Game-By-Game Against The Spread Predictions

SBR Staff

Tuesday, November 27, 2018 4:15 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 27, 2018 4:15 PM UTC

Here's an NFL Week 13 betting cheat sheet. Each week of the season, you will find the entire slate with picks ATS and each capper's quick-hitting reasoning. SBR also will have full previews of each week's prime-time and marquee games.

Opening NFL Spread: New Orleans -7.5Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

SAINTS

Rainman: Saints will overwhelm Dallas’ mediocre pass D. Their own pass D has improved in terms of opp. QBR. NO also ranks second in opp. YPC and will limit Zeke. NO is 5-0 ATS on the road and 9-0 ATS L9.

Kevin Stott: Cowboys 14-0 when Zeke gets 140+ yards from Scrimmage, so expect Dak to feed him, but Brees (5-0 ATS on Road in 2018) and the Saints score like they’re playing Arena Football (37.2 ppg).

COWBOYS

Matthew Jordan: Perhaps stupid to bet against Saints, who have covered 9 in row, but me thinks Ezekiel Elliott can be productive against the NFL’s No. 1 rush D. Cowboys 4-1 SU in past 5 on Thursday.

Swinging Johnson: Saints look invincible at 10-1 and cashing in 9 of those contests but laying a TD to a playoff team at home that has limited opponents to 18.8 PPG over their last six? I say, no way!

Doug Upstone: New Orleans has covered nine in a row and looks all but unbeatable, but at some point they will lose one against the spread, right? Let's take a shot with them at Dallas on the hook (+7.5).

Opening NFL Spread: Baltimore -2.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

RAVENS

Rainman: Falcons’ offense is still underachieving under Sark. It’s failed to exceed 20 points in 3 straight. Ravens secondary stacked with depth and ranks second in opp. QBR. Atlanta won’t score enough.

FALCONS

Matthew Jordan: Atlanta actually drove up and down the field last Thursday in New Orleans but kept turning the ball over. Ravens have lost six straight on the road after back-to-back home games.

Swinging Johnson: The Ravens had punt & fumble return for 2 TDs vs. Oakland but won’t be as lucky this week as the Dirty Birds get their offense back in gear and win this one by double digits.

Doug Upstone: Atlanta is in free fall at 0-3 SU and ATS. Lamar Jackson and Baltimore have beaten two bad football teams at home. Can the Ravens manufacture a similar result on the road vs. angry Birds?

Kevin Stott: A Hitchcockian Birds showdown at The Benz with both the Dirty and Blackbirds sort of getting crapped on in this 2018 season. One of those matchups that looked great on schedule in Summer.

Opening NFL Spread: Denver -3.5Best Line Offered: BookMaker

BRONCOS

Rainman: Bengals are conceding 30+ points in four of their past five games. They were allowing 212 YPG before they focused on Chubb last week, only to get torched through the air. Denver will run over them.

Swinging Johnson: Cats are in such disarray that they made Browns look like the Saints last week. Dalton & Green banged up while Denver playing best ball of the season. Square biz play on Broncos.

Doug Upstone: Cincinnati has injuries but are also lifeless and a coaching change is more than due. Denver has played well vs. good teams all year and takes a step down in class and should cover.

Kevin Stott: Broncs 1-3 ATS L4 vs Bengals but 2-1 ATS L4 in Queen City. Denver has W2 straight as Road Dog after losing 6 in a row in role. With Dalton (Thumb) hurt and Cats down, Orange Crush should win.

BENGALS

Matthew Jordan: Not that I think much of Cincinnati, which won’t have Andy Dalton, but Bengals are 13-4 in their past 17 following consecutive losses. Denver 4-11 ATS past 15 on road.

Opening NFL Spread: LA Rams -10Best Line Offered: BetOnline

RAMS

Doug Upstone: Big spread for the Rams to cover on road. However, Detroit changed coaches and remain the same old Lions. Why should the results be any different if they could not beat C. Daniel?

Kevin Stott: Footballs will be flying around with Stafford and Goff with LA playing for NFC Home Edge and Detroit looking for Courage like the Cowardly Lion in The Wizard Of Oz facing the NFL’s best team.

LIONS

Matthew Jordan: Previewed this here at SBR and took Lions at +10.5. Rams might be flat off epic MNF win and then bye week. Plus, early start time & Detroit 6-1 in past 7 when hosting West Coast team.

Rainman: Rams’ 27th-ranked pass defense matches up poorly with pass-first Lions. Lions will be able to keep up by slinging it. Plus, they have consistently surprised against strong opponents at home.

Swinging Johnson: Rams juggernaut rolls on but D is invisible having failed to cover in 6 of last 7. Line inflated due to square $ pouring in on LA. Lions can score vs. weak defenses & keep it close.

Opening NFL Spread: Green Bay -14.5Best Line Offered: Bovada

CARDINALS

Matthew Jordan: Why are the Packers more than two TD favorites against anyone? Green Bay’s just not that good and 2-8-1 ATS in past 11 vs. NFC. Arizona won’t win but can hang within 14 or so.

Swinging Johnson: Look, I know the Cards got trounced last week and they’re a lousy team but freakin’ Packers are mediocre at best and 0-6 ATS in the last 6 when favored between 14.5-21 at home.

PACKERS

Rainman: Cardinals are overmatched against desperate Packers. As a Jags fan, I find it funny that an incompetent ex-quarterback (Leftwich) is Arizona’s OC. They’ve scored less than 20 in five of last six.

Doug Upstone: Green Bay is actually too large a favorite but what case can you make for Arizona? Packers are incredible 54-27 ATS as December favorites. Good spot for the Pack to pound Cardinals.

Kevin Stott: Rodgers (50-27 ATS at Home) and Cheeseheads have been Dr. Jekyll at Home (4-0-1 SU) but Hyde on Road (0-5 SU) so with this one in GB and Cardinals having NFC’s worst PD (-103), backing hosts.

Opening NFL Spread: Miami -5Best Line Offered: Heritage

BILLS

Rainman: I expect Buffalo to be underrated often after its start to the season. Its defense will shine especially as Josh Allen continues to develop and avoids turning it over. Bills rank fourth in opp. QBR.

Doug Upstone: Miami is 23-48 ATS as December fave. In spite of a shiny 4-1 SU and ATS home record this season, the Dolphins margin of victory is on +2.8. The Bills are making slow progress and cover.

Kevin Stott: The Bills (7-3 ATS L10 series) can win this from Hard Rock against a Fishy team running on fumes with a negative PD (-60). These two meet again in Week 17 in Orchard Park.

DOLPHINS

Matthew Jordan: Minor miracle the Bills have four wins with that ugly offense. Fins played quite well last Sunday at Indy and should have won. Miami 6-2 SU in past 8 at home vs. AFC East foes.

Swinging Johnson: Fish are 4-1 ATS at home this season while Bills may still be reveling in win over Jax last week. Miami Ball Hawks will up their season pick total, currently ranked No. 2 in NFL.

Opening NFL Spread: Chicago -4.5Best Line Offered: Intertops

BEARS

Swinging Johnson: Bears D may win this game itself with Mack & Co. swarming a fading star like Eli. Bears are 7-2 ATS as a fave and line is just low enough to make this road chalk worth playing.

Doug Upstone: Bears defense saved them at Detroit (so did Matt Stafford). Can Chase Daniel win two road games if needed? Tribusky and poor Giants coaching could mean another Chicago SU & ATS win.

Kevin Stott: Jints host New Monsters of the Midway, the Bears (1-3 ATS L4 series, 4-1 ATS L5 at NYG), #1 in Takeaways (+29, +14 TOs) and Points Off TOs, a team who may be without QB Trubisky again.

GIANTS

Matthew Jordan: Will Mitch Trubisky return for Chicago? Bears 1-5 in past six on road after wining previous road game. Giants have been very competitive of late and will only lose by field goal.

Rainman: Letdown spot for Bears after big division wins. Trubisky may miss this one. Giants were dominating Philly before Saquon went missing. NYG can score enough if it keeps giving the ball to Saquon.

Opening NFL Spread: Carolina -4Best Line Offered: JustBet

PANTHERS

Doug Upstone: Panthers defense has allowed 102 points in dropping three straight (0-3 ATS). Carolina hard to trust as a road favorite at Bucs, but they are 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS at Tampa Bay.

BUCS

Matthew Jordan: Have you seen Carolina on the road this season? Cats also 1-8 in past nine NFC South road games. Jameis Winston looked like a franchise QB again last Sunday in beating the Niners.

Rainman: Can’t trust Panthers on the road, where they’re 1-4 ATS. They yield an opposing QBR of 117 on the road! Famous Jameis boasts a number of high-quality wide receivers with which to take advantage.

Swinging Johnson: Tell me why Cats are favored? Bucs D finally showed up last week in win over 49ers and TB is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Kevin Stott: Even though Cats (8-3 ATS L11 series) sketchy on the Road (1-4 SU) and QB-Roulette Bucs have nothing to lose, backing Carolina (5-0 ATS) because I seem to get all Tampa games wrong no matter.

Opening NFL Spread: Indianapolis -4Best Line Offered: SportsBetting

COLTS

Swinging Johnson: Oh how the mighty have fallen! Bortles is out and the immortal Cody Kessler in. It’s like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Jax D still decent but Colts offense in overdrive.

Doug Upstone: Hard to imagine Jacksonville was 15 minutes from playing in Super Bowl after seven consecutive defeats. The Jaguars have not covered a closing spread since September, why would they now?

Kevin Stott: AFC South teams with polar opposite mindsets from this time last season with QB play a big reason why. Bortles 6 TDs/7 INTs in Jags 7-game Losing Streak while Luck near peak form.

JAGUARS

Matthew Jordan: The Blake Bortles era might be over in Jacksonville, which probably makes this team better immediately. Perhaps the change at OC also helps. Colts are 0-6-1 ATS past 7 in series.

Rainman: Tricky spot for a young Colts team that may be looking ahead to showdown with Texans. I like Kessler more than Bortles since he’s naturally more of a game manager, accurate and ball-secure.

Opening NFL Spread: Houston -5Best Line Offered: GT Bets

BROWNS

NONE

TEXANS

Matthew Jordan: Cleveland is going to be good perhaps as soon as next year and this will be close, but I say Texans escape at home on short week. Our first Baker Mayfield-Deshaun Watson NFL duel.

Rainman: Browns will get love after demolishing Cincy away. But Houston is an altogether different beast. It ranks fifth in opp. YPC and boasts a dominant pass rush, which the Browns have struggled against.

Swinging Johnson: Texans proved they are the class of the AFC South with a win over the Titans while Cleveland proving they are better this year but not good enough to hang with the soaring Texans.

Doug Upstone: Would not be shocked at all if Houston gets off to a slow start vs. Cleveland. But their defense hangs in there keeps it close and the Texans end up covering in the fourth quarter.

Kevin Stott: Browns improved but still live in AFC North and are still Dogs on board. With Hopkins (8 TDs) and Houston rolling and 4-0 ATS L4 in series, 4-0 ATS L4 at The Dawg Pound, taking Texans.

Opening NFL Spread: Tennessee -10Best Line Offered: BetPhoenix

JETS

Matthew Jordan: Titans should win, but with Marcus Mariota a bit banged up and on short week off big one in Houston … well, New York will cover. Titans 6-15 in past 21 with a late-afternoon start.

Swinging Johnson: Riddle me this. Which team scores an average of 17 PPG yet nearly a double-digit fave this week? Titans - make sense? Ah, no. Jets not great but I’m guessing they can score 10 points.

Doug Upstone: This a tough call given the spread, but Tennessee knows unless they have a miracle finish they are not going to playoffs. Hard to back Titans at 17.7 PPG to cover a spread of this size

TITANS

Rainman: Titans should bounce back at home where they’re 6-1 L7 ATS. They still boast one of the top scoring defenses. Jets will lack the weapons to score enough and are even prone to giving ball away.

Kevin Stott: Titans can’t score so they have to try to play great Defense. Against Sam Darnold And The Goblet of Jet, Tennessee hasn’t done so well, going 2-8 ATS L10 and 2-5 ATS L7 in Dollywood. Don’t care.

Opening NFL Spread: Kansas City -15Best Line Offered: Betmania

CHIEFS

Rainman: Andy Reid is notoriously successful after a bye. Raiders’ D is abysmal, ranking 30th in opp. QBR. Chiefs’ batch of weapons will be fresh and will take advantage. KC is 6-0-1 L7 ATS away.

Swinging Johnson: Is there a number that we don’t bet on a well-rested, PO’ed Chiefs team after losing a shootout to LA vs. a motley crew that allowed 34 to the Ravens? That answer is a resounding NO!

Doug Upstone: Not sure what "Raiders Week" means to Kansas City this time. The Chiefs are 17-9 SU and ATS at Oakland, talk about ownership. Oakland mistakes enough for K.C. to beat this huge spread.

Kevin Stott: Chefs (12-4 ATS L16) score at will while Silver & Whack (17.0 ppg, #30) score at won’t. Mahomes boy Pat still mad about L’s? Need mo laughs? This line was once OAK -2½ before season began.

RAIDERS

Matthew Jordan: Needless to say, who wins this game isn’t in doubt. However, a home team getting this many points? Chiefs perhaps a bit flat off big Rams. Sorry Raiders with backdoor cover late.

Opening NFL Spread: New England -6Best Line Offered: Skybook

VIKINGS

Rainman: I think the Patriots are favored so heavily purely because they’re the Patriots. The problem is, they haven’t looked like the Pats of old lately. Minny’s D rediscovered itself and will limit Brady.

Swinging Johnson: Pains this homegrown Boston boy to back the road pup against my beloved Pats but dynamic duo of Thielen & Diggs should have a party with Cousins exploiting a suspect NE secondary.

PATRIOTS

Matthew Jordan: Super Bowl preview? Were this in Minneapolis, the Vikings would be the call, but New England has won 12 straight at home by an average of nearly 15 points. Pats now healthy too.

Doug Upstone: We know Minnesota is capable of making this a close game with New England. But I have a system about home faves playing out of conference off a win by 10 or more points that is 29-6 ATS.

Kevin Stott: No matter how beat up Pats are, Purple People Beaters having trouble scoring and this one is at The Razor where Winds will whip now indoor-accustomed Minnesota. Vikings should embrace the Cold?

Opening NFL Spread: Seattle -10Best Line Offered: Sports Interaction

49ERS

Rainman: This is a classic let-down spot for Seattle which is coming off a big, dramatic, comeback win on road against fellow playoff contender Carolina. The 49ers are still playing competitively.

SEAHAWKS

Matthew Jordan: I would buy this number down under 10. Pete Carroll might be doing his best coaching job this season in Seattle. Seahawks have won past 9 in series by average of just over 11 ppg.

Swinging Johnson: Seattle quietly climbing standings and cashing for their backers at 5-1-1 ATS over last 7. Meanwhile, the Nick Mullens era appears to be over before it ever began. Who saw that coming?

Doug Upstone: With four of last five at home, this is where Seattle makes a playoff push. Seahawks are 16-6 ATS off a road game in which both teams tallied 24 or more points. Seattle win by 13.

Kevin Stott: Where have you gone, Jim Garoppolo, our city (By The City By The Bay) turns its lonely eyes to you. Seattle used to crush the Niners in the Emerald City. Last year? (SEA) 12-9. Mo crush plz?

Opening NFL Spread: Pittsburgh -3.5Best Line Offered: YouWager

CHARGERS

Rainman: No Gordon? No problem. Austin Ekeler is one of the league’s better backups. Besides, Rivers is playing on another level. The key is the return of Joey Bosa, who finally gives L.A. a pass rush.

Doug Upstone: Chargers are 5-1 (4-2 ATS) away from their orphaned home. As over a field goal underdog, the Bolts are 31-14 ATS in road games in weeks 10 through 13 and worth strong consideration.

STEELERS

Matthew Jordan: The Chargers not having star RB Melvin Gordon changes the outlook for this game, and Bolts just 1-5 SU in past 6 night games. Pittsburgh has covered its past six following a loss.

Swinging Johnson: Gordon is out for the Bolts, taking away most lethal weapon, which means Steelers can now match LA’s offense and own a pass defense at No. 7 that will cause problems for Rivers.

Kevin Stott: Big Ben will play with “players on the field” and run (scurry) when he can -- great thing for winning QBs to do. Against Brees (38-22 Road Dog) and SD, Steel Curtain will show it’s sorta back.

Opening NFL Spread: Philadelphia -6.5Best Line Offered: BetCris

REDSKINS

Rainman: Philly should not be laying this many points to anyone. They could've easily lost to the Giants if they hadn’t inexplicably stopped giving Saquon the ball. Eagles’ tackling has looked awful lately.

Swinging Johnson: Should Eagles really be laying close to a TD to anyone? Colt McCoy makes Skins backers wary but he’s a veteran playing against a subpar team. Don’t worry, grab the points and cash.

EAGLES

Matthew Jordan: Stick a fork in the Redskins are they are done with Colt McCoy under center as he showed on Thanksgiving with 3 interceptions. Washington just 3-7 ATS in past 10 vs. NFC East foes.

Doug Upstone: Washington will have a chance, but ultimately do not have the players on offense at this time to exploit the Eagles defensive injuries. Redskins are also MNF failures are 10-23 ATS.

Kevin Stott: Are you ready for some Colt McCoy? Mark Sanchez? Thought not. Some games' worth are seen in their bet-ability, and this may be one of them with the Iggles motivated to get back in race.

Season ATS records: MJ (95-77-4), RM (78-93-5), SJ (86-87-3), DU (86-79-11), KS (84-88-4)

Survivor Picks: MJ (SEA), RM (GB), SJ (KC), DU (SEA), KS (KC)

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