Week 13 NFL Picks: False Favorites and Top Dogs

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, November 25, 2014 8:19 PM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2014 8:19 PM GMT

It is going to be a Lucky Week 13 with my NFL picks in search more winners against the betting odds. This week’s choices will involve three teams from the Midwest in various roles.

Last week I admitted it was more hit and miss with these picks, but I have a much more positive vibe as a NFL football handicapper with one false favorite and two top underdogs.

Take a look at Doug's Week 13 value picks

Brownies Banging Out Winners
Have to admit; with the Value Picks article I wrote here, I thought Cleveland might be ready to start tanking. I mean come on, how many times can a team find ways to win close games that appear to be almost certain losses? Yet after coughing up a 23-14 fourth quarter lead at Atlanta, the Browns kept their chin straps buckled and Brian Hoyer kept his poise and led his club down the field to a game-winning field goal.

Do I think Cleveland will ultimately win the AFC North, no, but when study Buffalo, I see a very similar squad to the Browns and the only edge the Bills have is being at home where they are 2-3 and 1-4 ATS.

Coach Mike Pettine has the Brownies believing, so why not take the points?

NFL Underdog with Bite Cleveland +2.5 at 5Dimes

 

Suspicious Line Could Mean Fading Vikings
The NFL odds have Minnesota favored by a standard three points in the land of nearly 10,000 frozen lakes. This number appears low when you consider Carolina has been torched for 34.4 points a game on the road this season and is yardage stats, allows 32 more yards per contest than the Vikings do.

Next, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and his teammates have done a far better job protecting the pigskin in the last five outings than Cam Newton and his Panthers pals, with four turnovers compared to Carolina’s sloppy total of 12.

I am not suggesting the Minnesota should be wildly more favored, however, I don’t think -3 is out of line here. I grabbed my shovel and starting digging and found teams like Carolina playing in November having lost five or more straight times are 14-3 ATS in next tilt. Ah, now it makes sense. Going to use sports pick on the ‘Cats.

NFL False FavoriteMinnesota -3 at BookMaker

 

No Value on Green Bay at Lambeau this Week
If this ends up being a Super Bowl preview the way New England and Green Bay are playing, my guess is there would be few complaints. Both the Patriots and Packers look almost as good as Kate Upton, not making it an easy choice for sports picks.

One wagering axiom I have tried to live by when breaking down teams, is if the two squads are virtually even, except for a possible home field advantage, it is better to take the points than give them. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are fantastic at home this season at 5-0 and 4-0-1 ATS record, nevertheless, since 2004 New England and Tom Brady are 14-5 ATS as non-division road underdogs, so make them part of your NFL picks.

NFL Underdog with BiteNew England +3 at BetOnline

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