Pass On Chiefs' Tempting Odds ATS, Go High In Raiders' Mismatch

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, November 29, 2018 4:36 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 29, 2018 4:36 PM UTC

The oddsmakers have installed the visiting Chiefs as enormous road favorites over the Raiders but despite the disparity in talent, the point spread is just too high to lay it but not enough to take it. We’ll pass on the side and instead turn to a total that looks absolutely tantalizing!  

Chiefs (6-3 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) vs. Raiders (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS)Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)If You Must Bet: OverBest Line Offered: Bookmaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3452846, "sportsbooksIds":[93,19,999996,169,1096], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

The NFL odds board, across all the best online sportsbooks, is offering the Kansas City Chiefs as anywhere between 14 ½ and 16 point favorites – on the road! That’s right, the gap between worst and first in the AFC is that vast but it’s even a bit much for us to swallow as we are no doubt tempted to lay it on the Chiefs and watch them bust up the Raiders. However, it could get ugly early and the fourth-quarter could see KC roll out the second and third stringers which would invite a backdoor cover by Oakland. Therefore, we will abstain and instead focus exclusively on the total which is being dealt at 55½ pretty much across the board as of this midweek writing.

We know the Chiefs can ring it up, averaging 318 passing yards per game (No. 3) which contributes mightily to their 36.7 points per game, trailing only New Orleans in points scored. Surprisingly, the Raiders aren’t terrible against the pass, checking in as the No. 15 pass defense but are ranked 30th of 32 teams in points allowed (29.7 PPG). Patrick Mahomes should be moving the chains early and often but when he hands the ball to Kareem Hunt it will be smooth sailing as the Raiders stop the run the way a tennis racket catches water. Oakland’s run-stop unit is ranked dead last, surrendering over 151 yards per contest!

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

The #Chiefs return to the field this Sunday against the Oakland Raiders in the first meeting between the AFC West foes this season.

Here’s more on the Chiefs’ classic rival. pic.twitter.com/r3dF2DT6rK

— Matt McMullen (@KCChiefs_Matt) November 29, 2018
\n\n"}[/]

Now before these stats having you frothing at the mouth to include the Chiefs in your NFL picks this Sunday, understand that Kansas City’s pass defense is 17 notches below the Raiders’ and dead last in the league, allowing a stunning 297 yards per contest. There is no doubt that Oakland’s Derek Carr has been off this season and looked dazed and confused in last week’s 34-17 loss to the Ravens but even he should get a piece of this moribund KC secondary. This is all shaping up as a shootout with the Chiefs being far and away the top gun in this mismatch but points will be scored and we will cash a ticket on the over because of it. Want more reasons to go over? Here you go:

  • Over is 7-1 in Chiefs last 8 road games.
  • Over is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Oakland.
  • Over is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games in Week 13.

Final Score: Chiefs 45 Raiders 31

comment here