Week 13 NFL Trends To Beat the Books: You’re Gonna Need A Bigger Bankroll

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, November 27, 2018 3:06 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 27, 2018 3:06 PM UTC

You’re gonna need a bigger bankroll if you miss these "Jaws"-inspired NFL Week 13 betting trends and angles. Bounty up.

You’re Gonna Need A Bigger Bankroll

The Saints have covered the spread in nine straight games, nipping the number (-13) with a 31-17 win over the Falcons on Thanksgiving. Since the introduction of the NFL salary cap, only seven road favorites have kicked off when covering seven or more in a row. They are 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS, coming up 8.5 points shy of an average -4.6 line. None has won by more than five points. Tread carefully backing the Saints -7.5 at the Cowboys Thursday night, or you’re gonna need a bigger bankroll.

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Cardinals To Take Flight

Since 1990, underdogs losing by more than 30 while catching points in their previous effort are 72-37-6 ATS (66.1 percent) next time out. The Chargers routed the Cardinals 45-10 as a two-touchdown favorite in Week 12. The same handicap applies to Arizona in its trip to Lambeau Field to take on Green Bay Sunday.

Andy Reid Alert

Signal the Andy Reid alarm. The Chiefs are an eye-opening 15.5-point road favorites over the Raiders in Week 13. Reid is an amazing 23-6 SU and 20-8-1 ATS against AFC West rivals since December 2013. K.C. is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS gifting double digits two other times (Chargers 2015, Raiders 2014) in this stretch.

Raiders Rout Imminent?

Since 1989, home underdogs catching more the two touchdowns on the NFL oddsboard are 1-14 SU and 5-9-1 ATS (35.7 percent). They average a lowly 13.6 points per game. Only one of eight teams has covered the spread when the total is north of the 42.0 league average in this span, suggesting a high-powered attack from the visitors is too much to handle. The pups are losing by a 22.1 average margin, yielding 37.2 points per game. Yikes.

This Was No Boat Accident

The Giants are 6-22 SU (13-15 ATS) since the infamous boat photo in which Odell Beckham Jr. and the rest of the then-wide receiving corps flew to Miami to party following a 2016-17 playoff birth. Spotted less than a touchdown at MetLife Stadium in this span, and the G-Men are 2-9 SU and ATS, losing by an 11.5 average margin. The red-hot Bears are 4.5-point favorites for their Week 13 visit.

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So OBJ, Sterling Shepard, Victor Cruz, and Roger Lewis flew to Miami last night, went clubbing, and are on a boat. Living life. #Giants pic.twitter.com/SE6QqfuYfT

— Justin Witmondt (@JustinWitmondt) January 2, 2017
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Light Chalk Equals Brady Bucks

New England is a 6-point favorite hosting the NFC North Vikings at Gillette Stadium Sunday. Canton-bound QB Tom Brady is a lucrative 34-14-3 ATS (70.8 percent) all-time going off a home favorite of less than a touchdown, including a 20-6 run since 2007. Free money folks.

It’s Not Luck Y’all

Colts QB Andrew Luck is 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS as road chalk in his career, leading Indy to 30.3 points per game. This includes a 42-28 rout over the Raiders as a 3.5-point favorite in Week 8. For those dabbling in the proposition market, Luck averages 272.8 yards, 2.2 TDs, and 0.8 INTs on 36.5 passes under these conditions. The Colts are 4-point favorites at the slumping Jaguars.

Streaking Texans Signal 'Under’

The Texans became the first team in the Super Bowl era to win eight straight after starting 0-3 SU to begin the season with a 34-17 romp over the Titans on Monday night. Since 1989, the "under" has cashed 61.0 percent of the time (31-19-1) in the regular season next time out for teams on an eight-game run. At home, the mark is 17-7-1 overall (70.8 percent). Houston hosts the Browns as 4.5-point chalk on Sunday.

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This Shark, Swallow You Whole … Not

Dolphins are loveable, cute mammals — not ferocious fish. They lack the viciousness, cunning and danger of sharks. Consider this an applicable metaphor to Miami laying points to AFC East rivals. The NFL Dolphins are 30-43-3 (41.1 percent) in this situation since the introduction of the league salary cap. When returning home from a road effort, the record slips to 14-28-2 (33.3 percent) overall. Miami is laying 5 points to the Bills at Hard Rock Stadium following a 27-24 defeat at Indianapolis last week.

Heinz Field Highlights

The "over" is 24-13 (64.9 percent) when Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is hosting an opponent at Heinz Field with a higher winning percentage. Pittsburgh puts up 28.4 points per game in this spot. The over/under margin trends north by a 7.6 average. Big Ben is also 21-14-2 ATS (60.0 percent) overall.

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