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NFL Week 12 Updated Odds, Line Moves and Picks

NFL Week 12 Updated Odds, Line Moves and Picks
Aaron Donald #99 of the Los Angeles Rams. Photo by Harry How / Getty Images via AFP.

With Thanksgiving football upon us, this week’s updated odds, line moves, and picks come a little sooner than usual, but there have still been some notable changes from the opening lines.

Two of the games that opened with a one-point spread have now flipped to favor the other side by one. There were four games that opened with a one-point spread this week.

Here’s a look at Week 12 NFL updated odds, along with my picks based on the updated lines (Odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Updated NFL Odds, Line Moves and Picks for Week 12

Tennessee Titans (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, 6-5 O/U) vs. New England Patriots (7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS, 5-6 O/U)

Opening Line: New England -5.5
Current Line: New England -6.5 (-115)

Opening Total: 44.5
Current Total: 44 (-110)

The Titans lost to Houston in Week 11 and lost in overtime against the New York Jets in Week 4, but also won six straight between those two results. The Patriots are peaking now, but the Titans have been strong enough overall this season to expect that they can give the Pats a tougher test than they have received in recent weeks.

PICK: Tennessee ★, Under ★★★

New York Jets (2-8 SU, 2-8 ATS, 6-4 O/U) vs. Houston Texans (2-8 SU, 5-5 ATS, 4-6 O/U)

Opening Line: Houston -3
Current Line: Houston -2.5 (-114)

Opening Total: 44.5
Current Total: 44.5 (-110)

QB Zach Wilson has been cleared to return to the Jets lineup. Is that a good thing? He had four touchdowns and nine interceptions in five-plus games before getting injured and he returns to a lineup missing rookie running back Michael Carter. If the Texans can beat the Titans on the road, they should be able to handle the Jets at home.

PICK: Houston ★★, Under ★★

Philadelphia Eagles (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS, 6-5 O/U) vs. New York Giants (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS, 3-6-1 O/U)

Opening Line: Philadelphia -3
Current Line: Philadelphia -3.5 (-110)

Opening Total: 46.5
Current Total: 46 (U -114)

The line nudged towards the Eagles after the Giants were overwhelmed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night. Eagles corner Darius Slay is in concussion protocol and if he can’t go that would really help open up the field. While the Eagles have been playing well recently, the Giants can at least keep it close at home.

PICK: N.Y. Giants ★★, Over ★★

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U) vs. Indianapolis Colts (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS, 7-4 O/U)

Opening Line: Tampa Bay -3
Current Lines: Tampa Bay -3 (-114)

Opening Total: 51.5
Current Total: 53 (-110)

The Bucs looked good Monday night against the Giants, ending a two-game losing skid, but they don’t get an easy matchup here. The Colts have gone eight games without losing in regulation, with OT losses against Tennessee and at Baltimore, so they could be a handful, especially if Tampa Bay can’t keep Colts rusher Jonathan Taylor under wraps.

PICK: Tampa Bay ★★★, Over ★★

Atlanta Falcons (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS, 2-8 O/U)

Opening Line: Atlanta -1
Current Line: Atlanta -2.5

Opening Total: 46.5
Current Total: 45.5 (-110)

One of the least appealing games on the schedule, the Falcons have a worse scoring differential (-110) than the Jaguars (-103) so their better record is not terribly convincing.

PICK: Jacksonville ★, Over ★★

Carolina Panthers (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 4-7 O/U) vs. Miami Dolphins (4-7 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 4-7 O/U)

Opening Line: Carolina -1
Current Line: Carolina -2 (-110)

Opening Total: 42.5
Current Total: 41.5 (-110)

With three wins in a row, the Dolphins at home may be easier to trust, even without some of their top receivers, than a Panthers team that is still trying to find its way with QB Cam Newton running the offense.

PICK: Miami ★★★, Under ★★

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4-1 SU, 4-6 ATS, 3-6-1 O/U) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS, 4-6 O/U)

Opening Line: Cincinnati -3.5
Current Line: Cincinnati -4.5 (-110)

Opening Total: 45.5
Current Total: 45 (-110)

The Steelers should be getting some defensive reinforcements, as corner Joe Haden, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, and pass-rusher T.J. Watt are all expected to be in the Week 12 lineup, and while both teams have had uneven performances recently, the Bengals appear to have a higher ceiling.

PICK: Cincinnati ★★★, Under ★★

Los Angeles Chargers (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS, 4-6 O/U) vs. Denver Broncos (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 2-8 O/U)

Opening Line: Los Angeles -2.5
Current Line: Los Angeles -2.5 (-118)

Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 47.5 (O -112)

Chargers rookie corner Asante Samuel Jr. is still in concussion protocol. There are some statistical oddities in this game, like both teams are better on the road than at home so far this season and while the Chargers have a better record, the Broncos have a better point differential (+17 to -5).

PICK: Denver ★★★, Over ★★

Minnesota Vikings (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS, 5-5 O/U) vs. San Francisco 49ers (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U)

Opening Line: San Francisco -3
Current Line: San Francisco -3 (-120)

Opening Total: 48.5
Current Total: 49 (-110)

Weirdly, the 49ers are 1-4 at home so there may not be much of a home-field advantage for them in Week 12. The Niners have won three of the past four games but the Vikings have been playing well, too, with one regulation loss in the past six games.

PICK: Minnesota ★★, Over ★★

Los Angeles Rams (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS, 5-4-1 O/U) vs. Green Bay Packers (8-3 SU, 9-2 ATS, 3-8 O/U)

Opening Line: Green Bay -1
Current Line: Los Angeles -1 (-110)

Opening Total: 48.5
Current Total: 47 (-110)

The line has switched to favor the Rams, perhaps on news that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has a broken toe, and he will be trying to evade Aaron Donald behind a dinged-up offensive line. The Packers are hoping that Aaron Jones could play this week, but it still seems too soon to say.

PICK: Los Angeles ★★, Under ★★

Cleveland Browns (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS, 6-5 O/U) vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U)

Opening Line: Baltimore -4
Current Line: Baltimore -3.5 (-114)

Opening Total: 46.5
Current Total: 45.5 (-110)

The Ravens are getting QB Lamar Jackson back from the illness that kept him out of their Week 11 win against Chicago and the Browns hope to have rusher Kareem Hunt back in the fold. This could be a grind and Browns QB Baker Mayfield is battling multiple injuries going into Week 12.

PICK: Baltimore ★★, Under ★★★

Seattle Seahawks (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS, 1-8-1 O/U) vs. Washington Football Team (4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-5 O/U)

Opening Line: Seattle -1
Current Line: Washington -1 (-110)

Opening Total: 46
Current Total: 46.5 (-110)

No matter how much hype has followed the return of Russell Wilson from his broken finger, the Seahawks have not been able to move the ball in his first two games back. Washington has won back-to-back games and at least deserve to be favored at home.

PICK: Washington ★★, Under ★★★

SEE ALSO: All NFL picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

NFL opening lines made 11/25/2021 at 12:10 a.m ET