Week 12 TNF Capper Court: Majority On Saints To Turn Falcons Into Turkeys

nfl week 12 falcons saints

SBR Staff

Monday, November 19, 2018 2:51 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 19, 2018 2:51 PM UTC

Welcome to the "Capper Court," where five of SBR's NFL handicappers will provide their opinions on Thursday night and Sunday night NFL games. The majority rules! It's Falcons-Saints on Turkey Night in Week 12. 

Atlanta (3-6 SU, 3-7 ATS) at New Orleans (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS)Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)Free Majority Pick: Saints -12.5 Opening LineBest Line Offered: BetOnline

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Matthew Jordan:

I’ll eat crow when necessary, and I need to on the Saints. I didn’t think they’d cover a 9-point spread Sunday against the Eagles, but New Orleans blew the defending Super Bowl champions off the field in a stunning display of dominance. The Saints scored at least 10 points in every quarter. That’s nine straight wins for Drew Brees & Co. How on earth did this team lose Week 1 at home vs. crappy Tampa Bay? Brees needs to start getting some MVP love – how on earth has he no won that award in his career? – as he threw for 363 yards and four scores Sunday without a pick. He has just one interception all season at age 39.

Any shot the Falcons had of reaching the playoffs probably went bye-bye Sunday in their 22-19 home loss to Dallas. Atlanta was able to rally from down 10 in the fourth, but then allowed Dallas to drive right down the field and kick the winning 42-yard field goal as time expired. Atlanta has lost four of its six games this year that have gone down to the wire, including three at home. On Sunday, the Falcons did get back their kicker, Matt Bryant, after missing three games due to injury. He was 4-for-4 on field goals and is 13-for-13 on the year. New Orleans beat Atlanta 43-37 in OT in Week 3. That one was back-and-forth all day. Brees threw for 396 and three scores and uncharacteristically rushed for two TDs – to tie it at 37-all and then win it late in OT. Matt Ryan threw for 374 and five scores. I see something like Saints 38, Falcons 28 here with a backdoor Atlanta cover. The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings.

Swinging Johnson:

The Falcons appeared to be righting their wayward ship, ripping off three consecutive wins before dropping their last two to Cleveland and Dallas. I keep waiting for the Dirty Birds to break out and start putting up prodigious numbers, but as of late their offense has fallen flatter than a CPA doing a standup routine at Chuckles Comedy Connection. We know their defense is abysmal but the hope was that their high-octane offense would outproduce their opponents. That hasn’t happened.

The Saints will be the public’s choice because they score tons of points and do another thing the Falcons fail to do – win football games. But despite the stark difference in results all we have to do is harken back to Week 3 when Atlanta lost 43-37 in overtime to the team they face on Thursday night, the aforementioned Saints. But here’s the deal, the Falcons are getting a boatload of points because the masses will be laying the lumber on New Orleans like they’re reading Friday’s newspapers, however, the Saints D is among the worst but do only one thing well defensively – stop the run. The Falcons won’t be worrying about running the ball because this will be a track meet and Matty Ice will be airing it out early and often. Expect a high-scoring game as the Falcons keep it close enough to cover the number. Grab the points with the big road pup.

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Tom Brady’s 2007 season might be the best ever for a QB—and Drew Brees’ 2018 numbers are looking better than that. @AlbertBreer on what is shaping up as an historic season in New Orleans: https://t.co/E6bi1E75CM pic.twitter.com/byG4Ztanwm

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) November 19, 2018
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Doug Upstone:

The oddsmakers have had enough. Having seen New Orleans win nine in a row and cover the spread eight straight times, you are now going to have to pay to back the Saints. Books are not only weary of New Orleans as a public team against the spread, but the Saints are also winning in parlays and teasers, which are cutting into their profits. At this point New Orleans appears unstoppable, while Atlanta is floundering. After getting back to .500, the Falcons have lost twice as favorites to Cleveland and Dallas and will probably need at least a 5-1 finish to make the playoffs.

At this point, it seems dumb to get in the of this New Orleans runaway truck that is barreling downhill on a six percent decline just like the highway road sign shows, without breaks. Conventional NFL betting wisdom says to take the double-digit points, but trying to make a hero pick on a team that is on an 8-0 ATS move and 10-1 ATS versus teams scoring 24 or more points a game does not make sense from this chair.

Kevin Stott:

After the turkey and stuffing have settled in your stomach and the tryptophan has kicked in, find your favorite spot and enjoy this Thanksgiving Night TNF special dessert from The Big Easy where they sleep when they want to, dance the Fais do-do, dig parades where purple, gold and green beads are thrown and bake little babies into King Cakes. Who dat? Dat dem Cajuns, gumbo breath. And Sean Payton (108-86-4 ATS) is the real mayor, cap.

The Trends show NO (8-2 ATS in 2018) to be 5-8 SU, 3-6 ATS and 1-2 ATS as Favorites on TNF while the recent series Trends back Brees (70-61 ATS at Home) — who just locked down the MVP on my TV — and NO who are 5-2 ATS L7 in Nawlins. Ryan (43-41 ATS on Road) and Atlanta are 3-5 SU, 2-5 ATS and 4-1 ATS as an underdogs on Thursdays, but have really struggled and head in with half the Confidence as Ingram, Kamara and the hosts (11-1 SU L12 Home) who should rightfully have the Homefield edge in the Playoffs in the NFC on their minds. Even with the Dirty Birds are desperate, the Saints should roll in this NFC South holiday date.

Rainman:

New Orleans looks unstoppable. Despite what the final score says, it pummeled the then-undefeated Rams and then pummeled both the Bengals and Falcons by a combined score of 99-21. The Saints’ scoring prowess has been insane with Drew Brees having an MVP-caliber season, throwing 25 touchdowns to one interceptions — an accomplishment that I can’t even achieve while playing Madden. One could argue that New Orleans has benefitted from playing low-quality pass defenses. Plus, the Bengals and Eagles were very much banged up on defense, the latter especially in their secondary. But, Atlanta’s defense is also banged-up and it ranks 29th in opposing passer rating, just ahead of Oakland.

One could counter that the Saints’ pass defense also ranks low in opposing passer rating. But New Orleans’ secondary has significantly improved with the acquisition of cornerback Eli Apple. In its last three games, the Saints are allowing an average 75.2 passer rating. Philadelphia’s usually prolific Carson Wentz mustered 156 passing yards off 19-for-33 passing with zero touchdowns and three interceptions in Sunday’s blowout. Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. The Saints have covered eight in a row.

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