Week 12 Picks: Early Numbers Can Lead to Late Gains

philip rivers

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, November 21, 2017 5:32 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 21, 2017 5:32 PM UTC

As we enter almost the final quarter of the season, we have noticed that getting an early jump on what the NFL oddsmakers are dealing can be the difference between a loss and a cover. Let’s see what this Thanksgiving week holds in store.

Thursday: Vikings at Lions

This game opened at a pick'em, but clearly the public was impressed by the Vikings’ derailing of the LA Express, also known as the LA Rams, and has now pushed this line to Minnesota -3 at virtually all of the top online sportsbooks. The Lions had a nice win as well when they defeated the Bears at Soldier Field by the score of 27-24, but it certainly didn’t have the same cachet that Minnesota’s victory had over the high-flying Rams. If you feel there is value with this home dog in your NFL picks then get on over to Bovada, where they are charging just -105 on the Lions +3.

Thursday: Chargers at Cowboys

The NFL odds makers made a boo-boo when they began dealing the Cowboys as early 4-point favorites because the sharps and public have swarmed the books with Chargers dough. The Cowboys’ 37-9 destruction at the hands of their NFC East rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles, coupled with the LA’s prolific 54-24 win over the Bills has turned heads and changed spreads. Books like 5Dimes, Heritage, and Intertops are all offering the Boyz at +1, while the rest of the majors are standing solidly at a pick either way.

Dolphins at Patriots

You could see an influx of money on the steamrolling Pats no matter what the oddsmakers dealt for an opening line. The public will be sending it in on New England in droves after the Pats' dominating performance last week at a neutral site over the Raiders. Meanwhile, Miami has lost four straight and failed to cover the number in five of its last contests. New England opened as 16-point home chalk but that number has risen to as high as 17½ at 5Dimes. Most of the others are offering Bill B’s crew at a solid 17, while Bookmaker and YouWager are sitting at a modest 16½.

Jaguars at Cardinals

Once the laughingstock of the league, the Jaguars have vacated the NFL’s version of the Comedy Connection, leaving just the Browns and 49ers to entertain the masses. This line opened at Jacksonville -3½, but that number has risen to as high as five at Bookmaker, BetDSI and Bovada. Most of the other majors are dealing the road favorite at 4½, so if you like the Jaguars' chances in the desert then get on over to Pinnacle, 5Dimes, and BetOnline. However, if you feel there is value with the Redbirds then check out those books giving Arizona a 5-point head start.

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