NFL Week 12 Parlay Picks

After an exciting Thanksgiving slate, this Sunday has the opportunity to be even better. Here are our best NFL parlay picks for Week 12.

Between the Pittsburgh Steelers facing the Cincinnati Bengals, a big NFC clash between the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams, and a bottom-of-the-league battle, there are plenty of opportunities to find value this week. We have plunged into the Week 12 abbreviated Sunday slate and identified three games that could bring us a big return on investment. 

Here’s a look at my top NFL parlay picks for Week 12 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Week 12 Parlay Picks

Steelers +3.5 (-106) ????Rams -2 (-110) ????Texans -2.5 (-110) ???

Week 12 Parlay Predictions

Steelers +3.5 (-106) vs. Bengals

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

The Mike Tomlin betting trend is alive and well. Per BetLabs, when Pittsburgh is an underdog under Tomlin, they have covered at an absurd rate. Since 2018, they are 18-4 as an underdog against the spread. Since Sept. 19, 2019 they are 13-3 ATS, and this season they are 4-1 ATS.

The Steelers still managed to follow this trend last week against the Chargers, despite playing shorthanded. This week they will enjoy the return of star defensive end T.J. Watt and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Pittsburgh historically dominates the Bengals, having won 10 of the last 11 games coming into this season. In Week 3, Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh 24-10 in Pittsburgh, with Bengals wideout Tyler Boyd stating the Steelers “quit.”

Cincinnati (6-4) has enjoyed a solid season and is coming off an impressive 32-13 win at Las Vegas. However, in their two games prior they lost to the Jets and were blown out by Cleveland. Cincinnati is known in the public for having an explosive offense, yet only rank 21st overall in team DVOA, while the Steelers rank 22nd. The metrics and the talent don’t tell the same story.

I love getting the Steelers above a field goal in a historically profitable underdog spot under Mike Tomlin.

SEE ALSO: Top 3 Underdog Picks of NFL Week 12

Rams -2 (-110) vs. Packers

The Rams offense ranks among the NFL’s best, currently sitting at eighth overall in DVOA. Los Angeles is 10th in passing efficiency and seventh in rushing efficiency: one of the most balanced offenses in the NFL. The Rams offense took a hit when veteran wideout Robert Woods was placed on injured reserve with a torn ACL. Los Angeles signed wideout Odell Beckham on Nov. 12th and should have him fully included in the game plan at Green Bay.

Green Bay’s defense has improved over the past few weeks but still ranks 26th in run defense efficiency. Look for the Rams to skew run-heavy with Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel. Coming off their bye week, McVay stated the importance of running the ball to provide better offensive balance.

Per BetLabs, Sean McVay is 3-1 in his career with the Rams coming off a bye week, and 13-5-1 (72.7%) coming off a loss. Los Angeles is the much healthier team, as both Aaron Jones (knee) and Aaron Rodgers (toe) are limited with injuries. The Packers have their bye week after this game, and will likely be conservative in usage with any limited player.

In each of the Rams losses, their defense has allowed 150 rushing yards or more. Due to their stingy pass defense, Green Bay will have to find a way to gain yards on the ground. A.J. Dillon has been strong the past two weeks, and Green Bay fans should be encouraged by his six receptions last week. But if Green Bay is going to move the ball and compete with the Rams, they are going to need to pass the ball effectively and that’s where my concern is centered.

Los Angeles is the better all-around team, the healthier roster, and coming off their bye. Despite the majority of bets and money on Green Bay, as usual, I’m backing the reverse line movement and laying the small number with Los Angeles.

Jets vs. Texans -2.5 (-110)

I do not understand what the Jets have done to be under a field goal road underdog against anyone. New York rookie quarterback Zach Wilson is rumored to start after a PCL injury in Week 7. On the season, Wilson has only four touchdowns and nine interceptions. He ranks dead-last among all starting quarterbacks in yards per attempt (6.5) and completes just 27.9% of his passes ranking an anemic 36th at the position.

The Texans pass rush has recently improved, averaging 2.3 sacks per game in their last three contests. On the road, the Jets are the worst pressure team in the NFL, averaging a league-bottom 1.0 sacks per game.

Houston is coming off an impressive 22-13 win against the Tennessee Titans. Veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor returned to his usual efficiency, rushing for two touchdowns with no turnovers. The Houston defense registered four interceptions, two sacks, and recovered a fumble.

The Jets are a league-worst 3-8 ATS, including 0-4 on the road. Houston is a respectable 5-5 ATS, including 3-1 at home.

I’m taking the better team in the Texans and laying the small number against a struggling rookie quarterback coming off an injury.

Combined Odds: +608

Picks made on 11/26/2021 at 1:14 p.m. ET.

SEE ALSO: All NFL picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.