Week 12 NFL Trends To Beat The Books: There’s No Crying In Betting!

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, November 20, 2018 3:38 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 20, 2018 3:38 PM UTC

There's no crying in baseball, and there's certainly no crying in NFL betting. Check out these peachy Week 12 NFL trends, including a few Turkey Day angles. 

There’s No Crying in Betting!

Are you crying because your team can't cover the spread? Home teams failing to top the number in two or more games straight headed into their Week 12 matchup are 27-58 ATS (31.8 percent) since the institution of the NFL salary cap (1994). The Buccaneers, Eagles, Jets, Panthers, and Ravens fall under this scenario Sunday.

Don’t Let Garrett Carve the Turkey

The Cowboys are 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS on Thanksgiving Day behind head coach Jason Garrett, falling 6.6 points shy of a -2.4 average line. The defense surrenders 27.2 points on 396.2 yards per contest.

Bears to Feast on Lion for Thanksgiving Dinner

Lions QB Matt Stafford is 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS as Thanksgiving Day starter. He is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS laying points on the holiday, outscoring opponents 33.8 to 13.5. When going off the underdog, the results turn sour. Stafford is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, losing by a 31.2 to 20.2 average score line. The defense has surrendered 27 points or more in every game. The Bears are 4-point chalk as of publication.

Lay Off the High Ones!

Saints QB Drew Brees is 29-17 ATS (63.0 percent) all-time under center at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome with a game total higher than 50 points. The ‘over’ has cashed at a similar rate, going 29-15-2 (65.9 percent). The over/under 59 for this weekend’s NFC South clash with Atlanta is currently is the second highest in Brees’ career.

Well, I’m a Peach

Falcons QB Matt Ryan’s record as a road underdog in divisional clashes is not so peachy. He is 3-12 SU and 4-11 ATS as a starter catching points in this spot, coming up 3.9 points short of a 5.2 average line. The 13-point difference against the Saints is the longest yet for Ryan.

Back to the Mean

Since 1989, road teams in Week 12 have covered the spread in two-thirds of games (40-20-3) when allowing opponents to surpass their projected team total by double digits in their last outing. The Titans, which yielded 38 to the Colts last Sunday, and Patriots, which surrendered 34 to Tennessee prior to their bye in Week 10, trigger this situation.

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Fly Low in Giants-Eagles Clash

Since 1994, the ‘under’ is 84-59-4 (58.7 percent) when home favorites in divisional matchups fail to reach 10 points in their previous effort. The Eagles, 6-point chalk hosting the Giants, were plucked 48-7 by the Saints last Sunday night.

Week 12 Road Gold

Since 1989, when two teams with a losing record square off in Week 12, the road team is 49-26 ATS (65.3 percent). When the home squad is returning from travel, the record improves to 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent). The Giants, 49ers, and Jaguars are in this spot Sunday.

Steelers Under

The ‘under’ is 30-13 (69.8 percent) next time out when Ben Roethlisberger leads the Steelers to a road chalk victory in his career. Pittsburgh topped the Jags 20-16 as a 4.5-point favorite last week.

Ravens Pacific Plunder

Baltimore is 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS all-time hosting teams from the Pacific time zone. The Raiders are traveling from Arizona where they topped the Cardinals 23-21 as 4-point underdogs.

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