Week 12 NFL Picks: False Favorites & Dangerous Dogs

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 9:05 PM GMT

Thought the Buffalo Bills had more fight in them than what they showed at Miami, unfortunately they did not and I had my first losing week in a month here versus the betting odds.

Like you, I don’t care much for losing against the NFL odds with sports picks and I am determined to turn this around in Week 12 with two false favorites and a top underdog this Sunday. I will say this, any of my NFL picks for this article will either deadly accurate or decidedly incorrect.

 

New York Shuffle off to Buffalo and Cover 
Around eight years ago a Michael Vick taking on Kyle Orton matchup might have some national cache for fans and NFL football handicappers alike. Now these aging backups are only in the starting lineups because of how ineffective the original starters were and the head coaches had no choice but to turn to these aging, yet experienced signal callers.

Nobody figured Vick would supply any life into the Jets and while he’s not going to make New York a winner, Vick has stabilized the offense to this point. After playing well initially, Orton has reverted to what he is, a backup and rumors are circulating it might be time to give E.J. Manuel one last shot.

Gang Green was hammered 43-23 in New Jersey by the Bills four weeks ago and since then the defense has played better and the Jets have gone two games without a turnover. With New York 7-0 ATS on the road revenging a contest in which they surrendered 35 or more points, I’ll make them a live underdog.

Check out the In-depth odds analysis & pick for Jets vs. Bills

NFL Underdog with Bite – N.Y. Jets

Seahawks Causing Seattle Backers Sleepless Nights
Seattle football fans are finding out it’s not that much fun the next season after being Super Bowl champions. The gleeful ride to the pinnacle of pro football has a downside, which the team and fans are experiencing. Rest assured, conventional football wisdom like you find on all the TV pregame shows would suggest Seattle is home, backed into a corner and “has to win”.

I think we all agree that is true, but when the sportsbooks put a number next the Seahawks, that changes public perception and at last look, almost 60 percent are betting against favored Seattle versus the team with the best record in the NFL, Arizona. Seattle winning would not turn heads, however, the Cardinals have a solid run defense which they augment with run blitzes and the Seahawks pass-catchers are not better than the Arizona ball-hawking secondary.

Hey, Seattle might ambush Arizona and win by 20, but I am forecasting a more defensive struggle and call for a 23-20 outcome.

NFL False Favorite - Seattle Seahawks

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Philadelphia Too Heavy a Betting Choice
For Jets fans watching Philadelphia vs. Green Bay last Sunday, they saw that all too familiar look of Mark Sanchez being befuddled by the Packers blitz and throwing interceptions or fumbling the pigskin. If you watched the Monday night contest, Tennessee was relentless in blitzing Ben Roethlisberger and almost upset the Steelers with this tactic.

I think we can all agree that Sanchez does not handle the blitz like Big Ben and the Eagles offensive line remains a fluid situation. If Zack Mettenberger can hit a few more deep passes and the Titans defense can limit Shady McCoy, Philly could easily win by less than 10 points, especially with Dallas on Thanksgiving.

NFL False Favorite – Philadelphia

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