Week 12 NFL Picks: Bills (+7) Provide Big Betting Value vs. Chiefs

Joe Catalano

Saturday, November 28, 2015 8:12 PM GMT

Saturday, Nov. 28, 2015 8:12 PM GMT

The Bills must face the Chiefs (5-5) and there's a log jam at 5-5 in the AFC between several teams and this game is crucial. See who we like as our NFL pick in what is a huge game for both teams.

Rex Ryan and the Buffalo Bills (5-5) had a major opportunity at Gillette Stadium to put themselves in a wild card position and in the end, the Patriots held on for a 20-13 victory.  

Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday, November 29th at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. According to 5Dimes, the Chiefs are a massive 7 point betting favorite and the total for the game is listed at 41.5 on the NFL odds board. This should be a defensive battle as Coach Ryan prides himself on his defense, but I definitely don't agree with such a large betting spread. These are two 5-5 teams and the Bills gave the Patriots a run for the money. This game will be close.

Rain is expected in the forecast and that should benefit the team with the better ground game. While the Chiefs have filled the void of Jamaal Charles with Charcandrick West, the Bills have LeSean McCoy and McCoy has been spectacular. Please check the weather report in Kansas City before game time as I'm not a weatherman and I'm just providing a hypthetical situation on the possibility of showers.

 

Fired Up
I hate to keep focusing in on Rex Ryan, but any game that he particaptes in, he's a huge factor. I expect Ryan, who is a player's coach, to have his team fired up. Although the referees have done a poor job on blown calls like they did with the accidental whistle that cost Danny Amendola a 70 yard touchdown, Ryan is not afraid to get in the referee's face and sometimes pressure from the head coach, puts pressure on the referees to favor the aggressor; 

 

"The Real McCoy"
After seeing the pain that quarterback, Tyrod Taylor, had to endure, I don't think he can go an entire game, leading with the pass. Taylor doesn't want backup E.J. Manuel to take his job and once he hurt his shoulder in the Patriots game, he was very ineffective throwing the long ball. He has Sammy Watkins at his disposal and completely underused him.

If Watkins is involved in this game with Taylor at the quarterback position, it's going to be short dump off passes to McCoy and litte 7 to 10 routes for Watkins, who loves to go deep. If Manuel gets in this game and that's a possbility, look for him to throw the long ball to Watkins and get the star receiver involved.

Nonetheless, the Kansas City defense will need to focus on LeSean McCoy as the Bills rank 29th in the NFL in passing and 5th in running. McCoy is averaging a over 100 yards combined on the ground and through the air and has something to prove after the Eagles got rot rid of him. He's Buffalo's go to guy offensively.

 

Is West the Best?
The Kansas City Chiefs are a team that does not like to throw to the wide receiver position despite possessing Jeremy Maclin. This is a team that mirrors Buffalo in that they look to run the football and where passing is concerned ;they're conservative. However, quarterback, Alex Smith, who is not a quarterback that will take risk, likes to look for those short passes to his faovrite target, tight end, Travis Kelce. Kelce, who is one of the better tight ends in the NFL and has 620 yards receiving along with 3 TD's. This coming from a QB in Alex Smith who has only thrown 10 TD's all season long.

I think this game comes down to the effectiveness of Charcandrick West against the Buffalo defense. While West has been serviceable, he's no LeSean McCoy and 7 point are way too many to give to Buffalo with our NFL picks. I love Buffalo getting the 7 points and think that they have a chance of winning the game.

NFL Picks: Bills +7 at 5Dimes

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