Week 12 Early Predictions & NFL Public Betting Trend Report

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, November 19, 2014 3:34 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2014 3:34 PM GMT

Our early NFL betting report for Week 12 analyzes odds trading across sports betting platforms and gives you an insight into general public betting trends for each and every game.

Which Teams The Public is Backing At Early Doors
We look at various online sportsbooks to gauge a sense of which teams the public is backing at early doors based on early NFL odds currently in swing. Where the public is betting can tell us which games on the week's schedule are consensus bets (Sure Thing), fairly certain bets and complete tossups.  Also we track any significant NFL line movements. So let's get started.

Revisit last week's report on Early Predictions & NFL Public Betting Trend Report

SURE THING BABY

Kansas City Chiefs over Oakland Raiders: Opening -6
The Kansas City Chiefs opened as the 6-point favourites at the weekend for their upcoming clash with the Oakland Raiders. Since the sports betting exchanges opened however that line has steadily climbed to 7-points at most online shops, while some, such as 5Dimes, are trading on 8-points already. Predictably, the hot Chiefs, who are after beating the defending champions 24-20 at Arrowhead, have the lion's share of public betting. Just a few days into public trading and the Chiefs have 70% of the market share.

 

Packers -9.5 over Vikings
Somewhat shockingly, the earliest NFL Lines recorded for this matchup were delicately set on 6-points across sports betting exchanges. Following the second straight torching at Lambeau Field by the Packers on Sunday however, this time the Eagles were the victims, the NFL odds swelled up to 9.5-points. Some sportsbooks are trading at 10-points even. Quite fittingly so, it would seem. The 53-20 lambasting of the Eagles marked the second straight 50-plus account by the Packers. Earlier this season, the Packers beat the Vikings 42-10. As things currently stand, Packers have 63% claim on all bets on this game. One would think their current form on the season would encourage a larger share. Then again this is a road game and the  Vikings have shown some spirit at home behind Teddy Bridgewater.

 

Patriots -6.5 over Lions
The New England Patriots are the hottest team right now in the league, if not the most popular NFL picks. Early reports reveal 67% of the public is backing the Patriots at the expense of the Lions. Last week, Patriots' backers were rewarded when they came through as the 3-point road pups at the expense of the Colts. At the Foxborogh the Patrriots are 5-0 this season, 3-2 ATS with a 17-point margin of victory. Yet, the Patriots are installed only as the 6.5-point home chalk. That's down to the Lions, namely on the defensive side of the ball, receiving respect from bookies. Deservedly so, even, given their solid season. Overall, the Lions are only 5-5 ATS with a 3.2-point margin of victory and 2-2 ATS on the road with a 1-point margin of defeat. Overcoming the Patriots is a tough ask at the Foxborough. Can they stall the Patriots juggernaut or are the bookies underestimating Tom Brady and Company. Patriots are 14-0-0 since 2013 at home, 10-4 ATS with a 13.1 margin of victory.

 

Broncos -7.0 over Dolphins
There has been a lot of activity on this game. Opening around 8.5-point mark and at a 50-point total, the NFL lines on this game have moved against the Broncos, which is a rather astonishing outcome to say the least down almost exclusively to the one-off defeat to the St. Louis Rams in week 11 NFL betting. Now the Broncos are trading at a lowly 7-points and the total has whittled down to 49-points, both significant downgrades when one considers this game is at Mile High where the Broncos are 14-1-0 SU and 9-5-1 ATS with a 15.1-point margin of victory. This looks to be a steal NFL pick and 61% of the public agrees while 39% of the public is backing the Dolphins as the 7-point underdogs.

 

FARILY SAFE

Colts -13.5 over Jaguars
As far as straight up betting goes, this one is the most straightforward of the week's NFL odds board. Against the spread, it's another matter entirely. So it would seem with the public divided by this absurdly high spread of 13.5-points (some online sportsbooks are trading at 14-points even). Clearly, there are those NFL bettors (49% stake) that feel the Jaguars could keep this game closer than the NFL odds would suggest even though the Jaguars are 1-3-1 ATS on the season with a 15.8-point margin of defeat. The remaining 51% of the bets are firmly with the Colts, where they probably should be so long as this game remains on a two-touchdown spread.

 

Niners -9.0 over Redskins
San Francisco Niners haven't made a habit of covering huge spreads this season. They are just 6-4 ATS, 2-2 ATS at home this season, with a 0.1-point margin of victory. So a 9-point spread seems a bit grand. It has everything to do with the Redskins falling out of NFL betting favour, behind suspect performances from RGIII and Company. That their in-fighting, finger-pointing and public tongue-lashing's are making headlines this week only takes the shine off them further. The public is disenchanted by the Redskins, wholeheartedly behind the Niners at early doors with 62% of the money backing a the convincing win at Levi Stadium.

 

Cowboys -3.0 over Giants 
Dallas Cowboys are coming off a bye week. They beat the Jaguars convincingly a few weeks ago in London, all while Tony Romo dismissed any concerns about the injury to his surgically repaired back. Given the state of affairs in the Giants camp following their fifth straight defeat, it's hardly surprising the public is behind the Cowboys as the 3-point road faves on the NFL odds board. The Giants can be unpredictable, however. One never knows when they might flip the switch – 28% of the public hasn't written them off their NFL picks, at least to cover as the 3-point home pups.

 

UPSET ALERTS

Browns +3.0 over Falcons
Online sports betting exchanges are recording an almost even split here, with 56% backing the Browns and just 44% backing the Falcons at home. Falcons are riding a two-game winning streak, including a narrow 19-17 win over the Panthers. The AFC South is in such a dire state that the 4-6 SU Falcons are in pole position to clinch the division title at the moment. Obviously, the 6-4 SU Browns are more consistent. deservedly gaining traction in the NFL betting markets as the 3-point road pups.

 

Titans +11.0 over Eagles
How quickly things can change in a week. On the conclusion of Mark Sanchez's successful debut as an Eagles starter at the expense of the hapless Panthers, NFL betting lines for the week 11 clash between the Packers and Eagles shortened significantly. By late doors, the Packers were trading as the mere 4.5-point favourites. (Beggars belief.) Tale told, Packers quickly set everything straight with a 53-20 win over the Eagles. Mark Sanchez enjoyed a forgettable outing and, in turn, the Eagles seemingly have fallen out of favour as only 37% of the NFL betting public is betting on the Eagles at home to the Titans on this generous -11-point spread (some books are offering a spread of 12-points). Monday's spirited account by Zach Mettenberger and the Titans over the Pittsburgh Steelers has something to do with this NFL betting trend as well. The Titans almost beat the Steelers, enough call attention. Clearly, avid NFL viewers watched and liked what they saw from the young rookie quarterback (63% stake on Titans to cover). That's an interesting and telling trend to come out of early NFL betting this week.

 

Rams +4.5 over Chargers
Obviously, NFL betting circles are reacting to the big win over the Broncos here. Almost 60% of the public is behind a second straight upset by the Rams, or at least to cover as the 4.5-point road underdogs in San Diego. That NFL betting trend gained traction following the Chargers rather lacklustre 13-6 win over the Raiders in week 11 NFL betting.

 

Cardinals +6.5 over Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals may not be receiving the respect from odds makers but NFL backers are buying what they are selling, even at the expense of the defending champions and the 12th Man. The Cardinals are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS this season, marking the best records in the league. Drew Stanton rose to the occasion last week with a win over the Lions to improve to 3-1 SU as a Cardinals starter. Seahawks are after a 24-20 loss in Kansas City Chiefs, a game many NFL bettors had the defending champions down as the sharp NFL pick. Tale told, it was another suspect account by the Seahawks. They aren't as good as they were last season, simple as that, and the public agrees with 61% behind the Cardinals and only 39% behind the Seahawks laying the points.

 

TOSSUPS
Texans -1.0 over Bengals

Given both the Texans and Bengals bounced back at the same time, during week 11 NFL betting, this game appears to be a bit of a tossup. Bengals are ever inconsistent, one day hot and one day not. Will the real Bengals please stand up? The Texans, by contrast, are trying out Ryan Mallet at centre. His first NFL career start proved successful as the Texans torched the Browns 27-7 in Cleveland. Predictably, this game is showing a 50-50 split on the sports betting exchange and the NFL lines continue to hop up and down from EVEN money to 2-points.

 

Bills -4.5 over Jets
Buffalo Bills have a shot at the playoffs still even though they lost to the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Primetime Football. Money coming down the wire is buying what they are selling as the 4.5-point home favourites. New York Jets (2-8 SU) finally snapped an eight game losing streak with a 20-13 win over the Steelers in week 10 NFL betting. They've raked in 38% of early money coming down the wire as the sharp NFL pick on the road.

 

Bears -5.5 over Bucs
This game is anybody's guess at the moment. Two of the toughest teams to get a read on collide in week 12 NFL betting. Sportsbooks show 56% of the public is flocking towards the Bears, largely down to their win over the Vikings last week. The Bucs, who upset the Redskins, are getting more love from the public the previously. After all, the covered as the hefty 8.5-point road pups at the expense of Washington.

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