Week 11 Recap: NFL Betting Trends, Results and More

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, November 19, 2014 3:32 PM GMT

We round up week 11 NFL betting up to Sunday Night's thrilling showdown between the Patriots and Colts. Find out how the winners and losers performed & what overriding trends to emerged.

Week 11 NFL Betting In Review
Week 11 was a mixture of expected results and massive upsets by underdogs, the latter of which included the Broncos succumbing to the Rams, the Bengals upending the Saints for a second straight home defeat and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finally stopping the bleed in Washington.

 

NFL Week 11 Betting Results
By the numbers, in Week 11 betting on the money line, the favourites went 7-6 SU but were crushed 5-8 ATS. Home teams emerged 7-6 SU and ATS against road teams. Finally, the over had one of the poorest turnouts of the season, going just 3-10 overall in total betting.

 

NFL Overall Betting Results
For the season, the favourites are 105-54-1 against the underdogs in straight up betting. Against the spread, favourites and underdogs are almost neck-and-neck:78-76-4. Home vs. away NFL betting trends reveal a 91-66-1 edge in SU betting and a 77-78-3 record in ATS betting. Finally, the over-under betting trends through eleven weeks of NFL betting sits at 79-78-3.

 

Thursday Night Football
A third straight UNDER was recorded last Thursday after the Dolphins and Bills settled on a 22-9 score in Miami. Overall, Thursday over-under betting trends reveal a 7-4 split.

Miami Dolphins win over the Bills (opening around 6.5-points before whittling down to 4-points, or thereabouts depending on your sportsbook of choice) set the tone for home teams in week 11 going 7-6 SU and ATS.

 

Home Sweet Home
The biggest home favourites to cash in week 11 were the Green Bay Packers, who opened around 6-points but closed at 4.5-points, in a convincing 53-20 win over the Eagles. It was the second straight 50-point-plus account by the Packers at Lambeau, improving to a perfect 4-0-1 record at home. And it was their ninth high-scoring game of the season, improving to 9-1-0 record overall in over-under betting this season.

Another home favourite that came through for bookies was Chicago. The Bears snapped a four-game losing streak when they beat the Vikings 21-13, spoiling the party for sharp bettors jumping on the Vikings, who opened around the 4-point mark only to close as the nominal 1-point road pups.

The Cardinals opened as the mere 1-point favourites at home to the Detroit Lions, but on the heels of Carson Palmers injury and the Lions receiving the weight of public support, bookies jumped the fence, closing the books on the Cardinals as the 1-point home pups and the -103 SU bet. Cardinals defied all and sundry in a gritty 14-6 win over the Lions.

Similarly, the Kansas City Chiefs opened as the 2-point home faves (or thereabouts) only to close as the 1-point home pups. Nonetheless, they proved the sharp NFL bet when they beat the Seattle Seahawks at home 24-20.

Chiefs and Cardinals are now the hottest teams against the spread with an 8-2-0 ATS mark on the season. Indianapolis (7-3-0) and Green Bay (6-3-1) are third and fourth, respectively, ahead of week 12 NFL betting.

 

Road Favourites Pull Through
San Francisco Niners came through with a second straight road win when they beat the New York Giants 16-10. Last week, the Niners covered as the 5.5-point road pups in New Orleans. This week they covered as the 3.5-point road favourites.

The Falcons beat the Panthers on the road, marking their second straight road win in as many weeks. Falcons opened as the 1.5-point road pups or thereabouts only to close as the 2.5-point road faves.

 

Underdogs Punching Above Weight Class
Hold the front page: the Rams or the Bengals mastermind the biggest upset? Rams proved the sharpest NFL bet of the week, opening as 9.5-point home underdogs to the Broncos, they were steadily bet down to 8-points. Tale told, they cashed not only against the spread but also in SU betting  as the +375 underdogs en route to a whopping 22-7 win over the Broncos.

Bengals take the honours for biggest road dogs to cash when they crushed the Saints 27-10 at the Superdome. Bengals opened as the 7-point road pups but late public betting coming down the wire saw the NFL lines swell up to 8.5-points when the shops closed.

On the flipside of the coin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened as the 9-point road pups (or thereabouts) only to whittle down to 7-points. Nevertheless, they emerged winners in SU and ATS betting in a 27-7 win over Washington.

Oakland Raiders were the biggest underdogs to cash despite a loss. The Raiders covered as the 11.5-point road pups (bet down to 10-points at closing time) in a narrow 13-6 loss in San Diego.

Finally, the New England Patriots proved their worth as the underdog NFL pick both SU and ATS in a convincing 42-20 win over the Colts. Although the Patriots were dubbed the 3-point road pups, many pundits had the Colts as the sharp NFL pick at home with NFL betting trends falling heavily in line with the Patriots from the off. The win marked the Patriots fourth straight win as underdogs this season – they are a perfect 4-0-0 ATS and SU as the underdogs both home and away this season. Most impressively, that run of form includes a whopping 21.2-point margin of victory.

 

Total Round Up
Overall, the UNDER ruled in week 12. Only three games went OVER preset total lines, the largely unexpected game to do so was Kansas City at home to the defending champions. Chiefs recorded a rare OVER in their 24-20 win over the Seahawks that was set to a mere 42-point total. That the Patriots and Packers delivered in OVER betting was largely expected with overwhelming consensus NFL picks.