NFL Week 11 Team prop picks
Our first prop this week is on a game that I am very keen on, as the Lions head into Pittsburgh. While the NFL Odds are somewhat low, I think the prop odds for this game are great. The battle on who will get to 10 points first has to favor the Lions, and I like the favorites here. At -125, the Lions’ offense should be able to cash this prop for us on Sunday, as the Steelers have been the worst NFL team at scoring in the first quarter this season.
The Steelers have a 1st quarter scoring percentage of only 10.6%, which is even worse than their offensively challenged rivals, the Ravens. The Steelers have also not scored in the first quarter since playing those same Ravens almost four weeks ago. In contrast, the Lions have been one of the better scoring teams of the first quarter this season. They have a 1st quarter scoring percentage of 28%, and on the road, their number is still solid at 20% 1st quarter scoring.
With a solid run defense, I think the Lions will be able to drop back a ton of guys and stop Ben Roethlisberger. If their pass rush can step up, they should get plenty of pressure on Big Ben, and if it comes down to a battle of the offenses, I’ll take the Lions any day. I see the Steelers coming out flat for the fourth week in a row, and for the Lions to come out and get to 10 points first.
My Pick: Lions 1st to 10 points (-125)
This game is set to be a defensive struggle, but instead of betting on a very low total, I have chosen to use this valuable prop bet from Bet365 instead. With a spread of -1, and a total of 40, the “no three unanswered scores,” prop should be great value here. If neither teams scores three unanswered times, the winner would cash a ticket of +120 for our NFL picks, and I think there is value for several reasons.
Leave out the fact that both of these offenses are bad, and that their defenses are pretty solid, but I think the weather is going to play a huge role in this prop having value.
There is a bunch of rain in the forecast in Buffalo this Sunday afternoon, and with 20 mph winds on top of the likely soggy field, I find it hard to believe that this is going to be an offensive shootout. I could easily see both of these teams scoring only a couple times each, and I will go out on a limb and say that one of these teams aren’t even going to score three times.
EJ Manuel is still rusty from his knee injury layoff, Geno Smith has been wildly inconsistent, and with both of these rookies going up against good defenses in bad weather, I doubt either one of these teams scores three unanswered times.
My Pick: ‘No 3 unanswered scores’ (+120)[gameodds]16/227016/?r-1=19-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]