Week 11 NFL Premium Parlay with Peter Loshak

Peter Loshak

Sunday, November 17, 2013 12:49 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 17, 2013 12:49 PM UTC

For my NFL Premium Parlay Picks for Week 11, I wound up going with just two plays, both totals.

The Jacksonville Jaguars’ home underdog line was one I almost used, and the movement has me scratching my head a bit. I previewed the game initially with Brandon Shively from EliteSportsPlays.com, and he made a compelling case for backing the Jags at +6.5 on most NFL odds boards. But as we have seen, the line has actually increased significantly all the way up to +8.

But according to Brent from BetDSI, that movement was not caused by sharp action on Arizona. And in fact, he told me he did take sharp action on the game, but that it came in on Jacksonville. So I considered including the Jags in my parlay this week, but ultimately decided against it.

Another side that was both recommended to my be a handicapper and identified as a sharp side by Brent was Cincinnati. Troy West from AllPlaysWin.com told me he liked the Bengals at -5.5 in our video preview of the game, and then Brent told me that sharps came in on Cincy at -5 and -5.5. But now sitting at -6 and -6.5, I decided to leave it out of the parlay, although there are good indications that it is a side with some value.

Check out our BetDSI interview with Brent, head lines manager~

Another play I almost included was also recommended by Troy West, the over in Washington/Philly. Brent told me that the sharps came in on the over in that one, along with the expected huge action from the public, which is a situation that tends to cash more often than not. So with Troy, the sharps and the public all favoring the over, I almost included it. But possible less-than-ideal weather, along with the very high total, was enough to keep me off of it, at least for this parlay.

I wound up including two totals in the parlay, one an under that will hopefully get a boost with some inclement weather, and the other, a tail of a play recommended by Joe Duffy from OffshoreInsiders.com, who has already given us a winner this week with the over on the Thursday night game, which brings his ATS record in his NFL video previews with us this year to a very impressive 19-9 for our NFL picks.

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