Week 11 NFL Picks: Take 49ers at Value Price of +13.5 vs. Seahawks

Teddy Covers

Saturday, November 21, 2015 8:13 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 21, 2015 8:13 PM UTC

We preview the NFC West clash between the 49ers and the Seahawks on Sunday afternoon and review the NFL odds to help you make the selection with more value.

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

The 4-5 Seahawks have only two point spread covers against the NFL odds in their first nine games, a consistently overvalued commodity.  Seattle’s two ATS wins have come against the Bears with Jimmy Clausen at quarterback and the San Francisco 49ers on a short week against an inexperienced coaching staff in Colin Kaepernick’s last home game as the starter.

The Seattle Seahawks needed an incorrect referee decision to sneak past the lowly Lions, lucky to escape with a non-spread-covering four point win.  Their other win came by a single point at Dallas with Matt Cassel at quarterback, another non-spread covering victory.  The markets continue to view the Seahawks as elite contenders who have suffered more than their fair share of tough losses this year.  I’ve been making money on a weekly basis betting AGAINST that opinion, and there’s no reason to stop here!

On offense, the Seahawks OL has been a massively underachieving unit all year.  Russell Wilson has been sacked more than any QB in the NFL her in 2015.  Marshawn Lynch is averaging only 3.8 yards per carry, nearly a full yard per carry less than last year; ranked #25 in the NFL in rushing after finishing in the Top 7 in the NFL in each of the previous four seasons.  Seattle’s offensive line woes are very real, and they’re not going away any time soon.

Seattle’s defense is still loaded with ‘name’ players, but this stop unit has declined dramatically, not nearly as good as recent editions.  We’ve seen teams run on Seattle, like the Bengals did in their come-from-17 points-behind win over the Seahawks.  We’ve seen teams pass on Seattle, like both Arizona and Carolina did to them when they won SU on the Seahawks home field.  Their overall numbers are buoyed by the games against Detroit, Chicago and San Fran, but this defense has failed repeatedly; particularly during crunch time.

Rested NFL teams coming off the bye are 16-4 ATS this year when facing an unrested foe, an under-the-radar ATS angle that has been a significant and consistent moneymaker here in 2015; not some ancient trend based on BS numbers from decades ago.  They were embarrassed by the Seahawks in the first meeting; a legitimate motivator for a squad that could have significant motivational issues down the stretch.

I have no hesitation taking a team with a first year head coach following their bye week.  That extra time really allows the first year staffs to clean up some messes, something that more experienced staffs are better at doing on the fly, week by week.  And, much as it pains me to write this, the 49ers got solid QB play from the widely disrespected Blaine Gabbert in their upset win over the Falcons prior to the bye.  The markets hate Gabbert so much that this line is legitimately inflated, offering tremendous value on San Fran for your NFL picks as a double digit underdog.  Take the 49ers at 5Dimes.

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