Week 11 NFL Picks: Strong Value on Chiefs -3 vs. Chargers

Nikki Adams

Sunday, November 22, 2015 1:32 AM GMT

Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015 1:32 AM GMT

The Chargers look to snap a five-game winning streak when they host the surging Chiefs in week 11 NFL betting. Find out where the value NFL picks are to be had.

Chiefs (4-5 SU, 2-3 Away)
The Kansas City Chiefs are surging behind a three-game winning streak, underscored by a gauntlet throwing win over the Denver Broncos at Mile High in week 10 NFL betting. Chiefs had not beaten the Broncos on the road in several years and they were facing the Broncos after the debacle that was at Arrowhead in week 2, when they fritted away a lead to lose 31-24.

Looking ahead to week 11, the Chiefs are a win away from improving to .500 on the season and closing the gap on division leaders Broncos (7-2 SU) with six games left down the stretch. That’s quite the turnaround after an abysmal start to the season in which they went 1-5 SU in their first six games.

Overall, the Chiefs are 4-5 SU and ATS with a 3.2-point winning margin and a plus 2.6-point margin of differential against the spread. On the road, they are 2-3 SU and ATS with a -1.6-point losing margin and a plus 1.2-point margin of differential against the spread.  In the last three games, they’ve covered twice as the 3-point home favorites – over the Steelers and Lions, respectively. Against Denver, they came through as the 4-point road underdogs in a 29-13 win.

 

Chargers (2-7 SU, 2-3 Home)
The San Diego Chargers are riding a five-game losing streak into week 11 NFL betting. Things are really looking dire for Philip Rivers and company as the season hurtles towards the finishline. They are desperate to get back into the win column, if only for the sake of salvaging some pride. For one of the most expensive quarterbacks In the league to be in charge of a team that is sat at the bottom of a division is a bit embarrassing.

Since opening with a 33-28 win over the Lions, the Chargers have only won one of their last eight games – a 30-27 win over the hapless Cleveland Browns in week 4 NFL betting.  They’ve lost to quality opponents such as the Bengals, Vikings, Steelers and Packers. They also lost to suspect opponents Ravens and Bears in recent weeks, both of which were narrow losses.

There are so many things that aren’t working for the Chargers on both sides of the ball, but Rivers is still put up dizzying numbers. It just goes to show a quarterback can’t win games alone.

Chargers are 3-6 ATS this season with a 4.3-point losing margin and a negative 4.1-point margin of differential against the spread. They are 1-4 ATS at home with a 1.4-point losing margin and a negative 5.2-point margin of differential against the spread.

 

NFL Betting Verdict
Considering both these teams are headed in opposite directions in the AFC West division, it’s no surprise that the Chiefs are deemed the road chalk in this game. NFL betting lines opened at 3-points on the NFL odds board and have for the most part stayed put on that number. Some have moved up to 3.5-points such as Westgate.

Rivers and company can’t be taken lightly, they’ve lost some close ones over this poor run of form which means they’ve been in most games and competitive. That makes them tempting home underdogs. For our money, however, we’re sold on the Chiefs as the 3-point road chalk on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Chiefs -3 (-110) BetOnline

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