Week 11 NFL Picks: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

philly-picks

David Schwab

Saturday, November 18, 2017 8:56 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 18, 2017 8:56 PM UTC

This Sunday’s NFL betting board at SBR Odds comes to a close with a classic NFC East clash between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys in an 8:30 p.m. kickoff from AT&T Stadium on NBC. The 8-1 Eagles come off a bye and the 5-4 Cowboys come off a bad road loss to Atlanta in Week 10.

 

Free NFL Picks: Eagles -5.5
Best Line is at the Greek

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Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Pointspread: Philadelphia -5.5
Total Line: 48

Philadelphia at Dallas Game Overview

The Eagles get back to work on Sunday night in pursuit of their first division title since the 2013 season. They have played to near perfection in their first nine games at 8-1 straight-up and they have been a bettor’s favorite at 7-2 against the spread. Heading into last week’s bye, Philadelphia had gone 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in its previous seven games. The total has gone OVER in six of its first nine games.

Given their 5-1 record ATS this season as favorites; the Eagles know that Sunday night presents a golden opportunity to create an almost insurmountable lead in the NFC East title race. A win would also keep them ahead of the pack for the top seed in the conference. Philly has not dropped the ball yet with a scoring differential of plus 104 points against its opponents so everything remains in place for another impressive victory against a bitter division rival.

Dallas is basically in a must-win situation to keep any chance of repeating as division champs in play. Last week’s 27-7 loss to Atlanta as a three-point road underdog put a major crimp in these plans in light of the gap that already exists in this race. The Cowboys have gone 2-2 ATS in four previous home games this season and this will be just the second time this year that they come into a game as underdogs.

If anyone doubted Ezekiel Elliott’s worth in the Cowboys’ offensive scheme, then Sunday’s loss to Atlanta should add an exclamation point to what he has contributed to his team’s success in his first 24 games in the NFL. He remains out of the lineup for Sunday night due to a league suspension and this makes second-year quarterback Dak Prescott especially vulnerable to the Eagles’ opportunistic defense. He was sacked eight times in last week’s loss while throwing for just 176 yards.

Philadelphia at Dallas Game Betting Trends

 -The Eagles have failed to cover in four of their last five games coming off a bye, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five division games. The total has gone OVER in 10 of their last 12 games against a team from the NFC East.

 -The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against a team with a SU winning road record and they have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 games overall against a winning team SU. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven Week 11 games.

 -Head-to-head in this NFC East rivalry, the road team has an 8-3 edge ATS in the last 11 games and the total has gone OVER in three of the last five meetings.

Philadelphia at Dallas NFL Pick

Everything leans towards the Eagles in this matchup in light of the current form with both of these teams. Dallas gains some credibility as a home underdog given just how important this game is to its postseason plans, but sometimes just because a team has to win a game does not mean it will. I would lay the 5.5 points at SBR Odds in this one with an NFL pick that Philly does go on to win both SU and ATS. This line was at 4.5 YEsterday and is now at 6 almost entirely across the board, with exception to the Greek where you can get it at 5.5.

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