Our Last Chance Value Picks have been beating the books week after week and we did it again last Sunday. Let’s pounce on those teams where the lines have drifted too far and catch all of that value in our NFL picks!
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, November 22, 2020 – 1:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Superdome
If you snagged the Falcons as 7.5 point underdogs at the opening number then you locked in plenty of value. It was soon discovered Drew Brees would not be suiting up, due to a collapsed lung suffered in last week’s game. The number dropped to about 5.5 when it was assumed that Jameis Winston would be getting the nod. However, it was soon revealed that the versatile Taysom Hill would be doing the honors, and the NFL odds on this matchup fell even further to where it now stands, as low as Saints -3 (-125) over at Intertops.
The Falcons are generating quite a bit of buzz entering this meeting with their divisional rivals after winning three of their last four. However, the last time I checked, New Orleans was a Super Bowl contender. As good as Drew Brees is, there have to be loads of talent all over the field for a team to be considered as such. Let’s go for the value and grab the favorable number on the home chalk here.
New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, November 22, 2020 - 1:00 PM ET at NRG Stadium
The Texans went from field-goal favorites to two-point home dogs within a matter of days. As bad as the Texans have been in some instances this season, the Patriots are far removed from their dynasty days as evidenced by their 4-5 record. Let’s also not forget that New England is hot off the heels of a stunning win over the Baltimore Ravens. That could cause them to lose focus against one of the dregs of the league.
Houston battled Cleveland tooth and nail last week. If their offense had clicked just a bit more than it did, the Texans would have come out of their 10-7 loss with a victory. However, after two consecutive weeks on the road, they will return to NRG Stadium and are getting a couple of points to boot. Let’s take what the bookmakers are giving us and bet the Texans in our NFL picks on Sunday.
Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, November 22, 2020 - 4:05 PM ET at Empower Field
The public is falling in love with the Dolphins, and why wouldn’t they? The Fish have won and covered the number over their last five straight games and head into this clash with the Broncos after a 29-21 victory over the Chargers.
Conversely, the Broncos have been fading from contention in losing three of their last four and failing to cover the number in just as many. However, before we jump on the Miami party bus, we should know that this number has soared from a pick to four points, which means it has broken the magical plane of three and onto another critical number of four.
There are a few things at play regarding this line. First, the status of Denver’s starting quarterback, Drew Lock, is up in the air. However, head coach Vic Fangio said after Friday’s practice: "He (Lock) was a little sore (Friday) morning but that's the be expected since he hadn't really done much since the game on Sunday.''
If Lock plays then that’s a bonus for us because otherwise, we will see the untested Brett Rypien under center. This is why the line has drifted as high as it has. Broncos’ tight end, Noah Fant, is another questionable starter after he sustained a rib injury, but the late word is that he will go on Sunday which is great news for Broncos and their backers.