Week 11 NFL Picks Influenced by Home vs. Away Trends

Nikki Adams

Friday, November 14, 2014 2:39 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 14, 2014 2:39 PM UTC

We examine relevant home and away trends that impact the NFL odds for week 11 matchups. How should NFL bettors interpret those and where are the value NFL picks as a result.

Last week home teams went 6-7 SU and ATS, pushed into negative territory after the Panthers succumbed to the Eagles on Monday Night Football. On the season, home teams are 85-61-1 SU but 71-73-3 ATS on the season. So it's fitting to consider home vs. away trends when looking ahead to upcoming week 11 games.

In this column, we've selected a couple matchups that boast overriding home vs. away trends that you should spot.


Saints -7.0 and ML -320 over Bengals
Surprisingly, this game opened on a 5.5-point spread, despite the nigh indomitable home record of the Saints, which received its first blemish last week in a 27-24 overtime loss to the Niners. Prior to that hiccup, the Saints were undefeated in 11 domestic meetings.

As it stands, they are 11-1-0 SU and 9-3-0 ATS at home since the start of the 2013 season, highlighted by a 15.2-point average margin of victory. Tipping the balance further towards the Saints is Cincinnati's less than convincing road form over the same span. Bengals are 4-7-0 SU since 2013, which includes a 1-2 SU record on the road this season and a 15.3-point average margin of defeat. The most glaring statistic of the lot, the Bengals have the worst ATS away record in the league over this stretch: they are 3-7-1 ATS on the road. It doesn't help the Bengals either that they lost their last two outings (43-17 to the Patriots and 27-0 to the Colts) and are behind a lacklustre 24-3 defeat to the Browns.

NFL Picks: Saints -7.0 and ML -320 at Bet365

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Vikings +3.0 and +140 over Bears
Chicago Bears are the equivalent of a welcome mat at home, rolling over 1-9-1 ATS against the opposition since the start of the season, marking one of the worst records against the spread behind home advantage in the league. Their domestic woes this season are compounded by a 0-3 SU and ATS record that includes a 12.3-point margin of defeat per game (5-6 SU since 2013). Twice the Bears entered a home game as the favourites only to come up short each time (0-2 SU and ATS with an 8-point margin of defeat). Those instances involved the Bills and Dolphins, two defensive-minded outfits. Minnesota boast the fourth best passing defense (213.6 yards per game), smack in between Miami and Buffalo on the defensive charts.

The Vikings have punched above their weight class this season, particularly since Teddy Bridgewater got the start. They are 5-4 ATS on the season, 3-2 ATS away. While they are 2-3 SU on the road, they did win their last outing in Tampa and backed it up with a second straight win at home to the Redskins.

NFL betting shops are recording a 55% market stake in a Bears win against the Vikings. An interesting stat to make note of here is the fact that the Bears are 6-0 SU at home after back-to-back losses when hosting the Vikings. This game could become the exception to this trend given the current demoralising climate in the Bears' camp, the lack of belief in Jay Cutler and the utter shambles on defense. The Vikings could be the sharp NFL pick as a result.

NFL Picks: Vikings +3.0 and ML +140 at The Greek

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