Every week we pick NFL games across the board and track our results. Join us as we analyse week 11's betting card and serve up our choice NFL picks for all 14 games.
Week 10 NFL Betting Recap SU
Last week we had one of our best weeks in SU betting, going 11-2 across the board, including predicting the Niners would win at the Superdome. We improved to 41-29-1 over the last 4 weeks. Let's see if we can keep the ball rolling with our week 11 NFL picks.
It's shaping up to be a rough round featuring more than a few close matchups on the NFL odds board that are tough to call. Already, half of the games on the week's slate reveal a near 50-50 split across sports betting shops, the public clearly divided on where the value NFL picks are to be had.
Bills +175 vs. Dolphins -210
This game is shaping up to be a must-see showdown between playoff hopefuls. The premium on the win couldn't be greater than it is now, when teams establish themselves down the stretch. Bills (5-4 SU, 3-1 away) enter this game at the disadvantage, matched at +175 NFL odds. Dolphins (5-4 SU, 2-2 home) have the edge on -210 NFL odds. Both are coming off disheartening losses last week. In a near must-win game, it cuts fine. Either side strikes a tempting pose on the NFL odds board. As things currently stand, 57% of the public is behind the Dolphins while 43% have stock in a Bills upset. We just can't resist the Bills at +175.
NFL Picks: Bills +175
Falcons -115 vs. Panthers -105
Atlanta Falcons stopped the bleed last week with pivotal win over the Bucs on the road. One road win isn't a sign of a turnaround. Clearly, it's something bookies have latched on to nonetheless as the Falcons emerge the marginal favourites at -115 NFL odds to win a second straight on the road. Despite playing Seattle and Cincinnati close and beating the Detroit Lions earlier this season, public betting faith in the Panthers is waning. The Eagles ripped them apart on Monday in a forgettable 45-21 loss at home. Falcons' offense is the only good unit. Cam Newton and the Panthers' O-line is struggling. Defense on both sides of the coin is atrocious. Sum total: this game is a complete tossup in straight-up betting, as evinced by the 58-42 split in NFL betting with Falcons nudged slightly ahead.
NFL Picks: Falcons -115
Bengals +260 vs. Saints -320
Nothing about the Bengals at the moment inspires any betting confidence. Since their week 4 bye, they've flopped to a 2-3-1 SU record. Saints might be coming of a shocking home defeat to the Niners, but one loss at home doesn't change the fact that they are a good home team. Since 2013, they've gone 11-1-0 SU at home which boasts a 15.2 win margin (last week ahead of the clash with the Niners they were a perfect 11-0-0 with a 16.8 win margin). You can't argue with those stats. Take the Saints on your NFL picks.
NFL Picks: Saints -320
Broncos -500 vs. Rams +375
Broncos have a solid 7-2 SU record on the season, which includes a 5-0 SU record at home and a 2-2 SU record on the road. Rams, by comparison, are 3-6 SU on the season (1-3 home and 2-3 away). Rams beat both the Niners and the Seahawks this season to raise a few eyebrows. Rare victories don't change the fact they are essentially a bad team, and Denver has a way of beating up on bad teams. Since 2012, Broncos haven't lost to a bad team going 11-0 SU, of which eight featured 20-plus margins of victory, including last week's 41-17 win over the Raiders.
NFL Picks: Broncos -500
Texans +150 vs. Browns -170
This is shaping up to be a very interesting game on week 11's NFL odds board. Cleveland is riding high atop the AFC North standings behind a 6-3 SU record (4-1 home) and is flush off a morale-boosting 24-3 win over the Bengals in week 10 NFL betting. Houston is 4-5 SU on the season (2-3 away). In a move to become more competitive down the stretch, the Texans bench Ryan Fitzpatrick in favour of a new starting quarterback Ryan Mallet – former understudy to Tom Brady. It remains to be seen whether this will kick start the Texan's season as they come off a week 10 bye. They haven't played badly, but they haven't been great either, struggling to close games with Fitzpatrick calling the shots. It's still not certain if Arian Foster will be fit for the game on Sunday, but, if he is, he's certain to give the Browns problems on the run. Browns are a good team, but we're going out on a limb here with the Texans for the upset.
NFL Picks: Texans +150
Vikings +145 vs. Bears -165
This is another clash on the NFL odds board that emerges as an almost 50-50 split in betting public opinion. Vikings boast a sneaky good defense while the Bears have none to speak of – well, none that anybody's seen do anything special of late. On the offensive-side of the ball, Teddy Bridgewater is handling the pressure as one would expect a rookie to, but the Bears offense has been simply atrocious of late. Bears are 0-3 SU at home this season, riding a three-game losing streak ahead of week 11 NFL betting. A big home win is exactly what would erase the memory of their latest defeat, a 55-14 evisceration at Lambeau field, and silence critics if only for the time being. But it's no secret the team doesn't have Jay Cutler's back, they're not confident in him and they are simply not playing like a team with a common goal and purpose. Undoubtedly, the Bears have the tools to be better. But if they don't believe in themselves, how can NFL bettors back them with any confidence at sports betting shops? Bears should win but the Vikings could win on your NFL picks.
NFL Picks: Vikings -145
Seahawks +115 vs. Chiefs -135
This promises to be one of the NFL betting games to spot on your NFL picks this weekend. This is a huge game for Kansas City Chiefs. Arrowhead is just as intimidating and loud as the 12th man and the fans will be out to prove it on Sunday. The Chiefs aren't getting enough respect on the NFL betting floor, 61% of money coming down the wire is going towards the defending champions. Blithely disregarding some of the excruciating games Seattle have played thus far-- Panthers and Raiders gave them a run for their money while the Giants played them close last weekend before a costly Eli Manning throw turned the game on a dime. Let's not forget, the Chargers, Cowboys and Rams have beaten them this season. Simply put: Seahawks haven't impressed. This is going to be a tougher game than most expect. The Chiefs are the value NFL pick as the nominal home faves.
NFL Picks: Chiefs -135
Niners -200 vs. Giants +170
Niners came through as the road pups last week when they beat the Saints at the Superdome 27-24 in overtime. This week they are the road favourites across sportsbook platforms, and NFL bettors are buying what they are selling. Giants continue to struggle. They'll be looking to avoid a fifth straight loss as the +170 home underdogs in week 11 NFL betting. The Giants played well for almost three quarters against the Seahawks, but they are too inconsistent to prove the smart NFL pick. The Niners defense is simply too good and if Colin Kaepernick plays well the Niners respond.
NFL Picks: Niners -200
Buccaneers +260 vs. Redskins -330
The NFL betting market on this game is utterly ridiculous. The 3-6 SU Redskins have no business being -350 favourites to win straight up, even against the hapless Bucs. Redskins have yet to win a game behind RGIII and a fortnight ago they slipped to a 29-26 defeat to the Vikings behind RGIII. This is another tough matchup to call in straight up betting, the public is split down the middle. The only explanation for such absurd favouritism shown towards the Redskins is the Bucs are worse. This game is the least appealing on the week's NFL odds page as a standalone bet. For the purpose of serving an NFL pick on this game, we're backing the Redskins as the home favourites. For angles for profit, this is a good game to add to a teaser.
NFL Picks: Redskins -330
Raiders +450 vs. Chargers -600
While the Raiders have yet to launch, Chargers are trending down. This is another lopsided market, which stands in stark contrast to the outcome of their earlier meeting that resulted in a narrow 31-28 win by the Chargers in Oakland. In spite of this overwhelming lean towards the Chargers by the bookies, 47% of the NFL betting public is investing in Raiders' stock as the +450 road pups. That's a significant market share worth noting. Could this be the game the Raiders record their first win on the season? If you are backing the Chargers, this is another one for the teaser list. For our money, heck, it's worth tickling the Raiders at +450 NFL odds, particularly seeing how badly the Chargers were beaten in Miami just a fortnight ago.
NFL Picks: Raiders +450
Lions +100 vs. Cardinals -120
Another tough nut to crack on the NFL betting page as the Lions and Cardinals are delicately nestled on a tight NFL betting line. Predominantly, public betting trends are leaning towards the Lions in this game now that Carson Palmer is out for the season. But is Drew Stanton really a downgrade? He's 2-1 SU with the Cardinals this season after covering for Palmer earlier this season after all. Cardinals' defense is no slouch either, easily they can hang with the gritty Lions. That said with Calvin Johnson back for the Lions, they do look to be that little bit better.
NFL Picks: Lions +100
Eagles +210 vs. Packers -250
Mark Sanchez assuaged any fears last week when he led the Eagles to a convincing 45-21 win over the Panthers on Monday night. This game is going to be the real test for Chip Kelly and the Eagles: how will Mark Sanchez measure up to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at Lambeau Field. Eagles' defense though is fast and furious, somewhat underrated in our opinion, not unlike the Packers defense which is also underrated by and large. Problem is Rodgers is on a 15-game winning streak at home, undefeated this season at Lambeau. If he's on top form, the Packers are going to be tough to beat.
NFL Picks: Packers -250
Patriots +140 vs. Colts -160
Since the humiliation at Arrowhead, Tom Brady and Company (7-2 SU) are hot on the trot, in a league of their own, stringing together a five-game winning streak. In week 9 NFL betting, Brady and Gronkowski were phenomenal against the Broncos all while delivering a gauntlet throwing 43-21 win at home. The Colts have been solid this season behind a 6-3 SU record and Andrew Luck has been posting some incredible numbers. Betting against him isn't a good idea normally, but when a sure-fire Hall of Famer is set on underdog odds, NFL backers pay attention. As it stands, 62% of money is piled on top of the Patriots as the +140 road pups. The Patriots have come through each and every time they were dubbed the underdogs this season and they have every chance of doing so here again.
NFL Picks: Patriots +140
Steelers -240 vs. Titans +200
This has to be the least exciting game on the NFL odds board. NFL backers were frustrated by Big Ben and the Steelers last week when they lost 20-13 to the New York Jets on the road. Another loss to a hapless team they wouldn't be able to live down. Big Ben is simply not going to lose to Zach Metteberger and the Titans who have lost the will to compete. Take the Steelers on your NFL picks.
NFL Picks: Steelers -240