Week 11 NFL Picks: False Favorites & Dangerous Dogs

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, November 11, 2014 8:07 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2014 8:07 PM UTC

After three weeks in a row of 2-1, as an NFL football handicapper I want to beat the betting odds for a complete sweep and I confidently feel I have the right three games to do so.

Three games have hit our map for this week's edition, as we have located two false favorites and one top underdog that deserve a look for your Week 11 NFL Picks

Buffalo Traveling Well and Covers in Miami
Both the Bills and Dolphins had ample amount of chances to win their last games and failed to do so. This means the loser of this AFC East encounter would have a real uphill battle to make the postseason because the AFC has so many teams with winning records. This matchup features two strong defensive teams with Miami 4th in total defense and Buffalo 6th.

Each offense prefers to run the ball to set up play-action passing.  Both Kyle Orton and Ryan Tannehill have their moments of brilliance, yet the facts point out Miami is 30th in red zone scoring touchdowns and Buffalo is dead last. The numbers emphasize these teams as evenly matched, with Buffalo 3-1 SU and ATS on the road this year while Miami is 12-30 ATS as home favorites since 2004.

Add it up against the NFL Odds and the Bills are a live road dog!

NFL Underdog with Bite – Buffalo[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290710, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Green Bay Modestly Overvalued versus Philadelphia
Both Green Bay and Philadelphia engineered domineering blowouts on Sunday and Monday evenings. However, because the Packers came first and was in more spectacular fashion, those making sports picks have elevated Green Bay to -5 or -5.5. In looking at this contest, the teams talent-wise are fairly similar and have a few holes that have to be disguised to be effective. Clearly, Aaron Rodgers is the superior choice over Mark Sanchez, yet the former Jets top pick looks very comfortable in the fast-paced offense where he doesn’t have to make a number of reads and just plays.

While moving Clay Mathews inside helped Green Bay against Chicago, the Pack was able to dictate the game building such an overwhelming lead. This week versus a more cohesive offense that plays fast, this will be a better test of where Green Bay really is on defense.

For my taste the sportsbooks original release of four made more sense and I have the Pack as a bit of a false favorite here.

NFL False Favorite – Green Bay[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290712, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Check also our Week 11 Early Predictions & NFL Public Betting Trend Report

New Orleans Getting Too Much Credit as Average Team
After losing to San Francisco 27-24 in OT, several New Orleans players ignored their 4-5 record and declared themselves as a “dangerous team”, while playing in a pathetic division. The Saints could turn it around and win seven straight and all would be forgiven, but losing four times with leads in the fourth quarter is not the hallmark of a top level club.

Cincinnati by any measure is equally as underachieving as New Orleans and what is most disturbing about the Bengals is their three losses have been by 24.6 PPG. Both teams have more than enough talent to win their respective divisions which is why New Orleans being a touchdown favorite really seems like a stretch. What cemented it for me is this: When two clubs who have a plus/minus score differential of three or less, eight or more games into the season and the underdog scored 14 or less points in last contest, the favorite is 4-12 ATS.

The Saints might win, but not by a touchdown.

NFL False Favorite – New Orleans[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290716, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

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