Week 11 NFL Picks: Early Jump Start on the Winning Bandwagon

Kevin Stott

Monday, November 16, 2015 7:55 PM GMT

It’s Week 11 of the NFL Season and the Point Spreads & Totals for most of the week’s 14 games are now out, so let’s take a look at games where the early numbers give some small edge.

Thursday, November 19, 2015
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -3 
Rookie Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans (2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS) head to Everbank Field in Jacksonville on Thursday night to face Blake Bortles and the Jaguars (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS) in a low-key AFC South battle maybe not meant for Primetime? On Sunday in Week 10 play, the Titans lost and failed to cover ATS against the Panthers in Nashville, 27-10, while the Jaguars were the beneficiaries of a Facemask Penalty with no time remaining and used the mistake to connect on a game-winning FG and upset the Ravens in Baltimore, 22-20. Last year when these two teams played here in Jacksonville, the Jaguars won 21-13 and covered the 4-point spread while in the first meeting in Nashville, the Titans won 16-14 but Jacksonville again covered ATS, getting 4 points. The Jaguars are 7-1-1 ATS the L9 overall against Tennessee and Jacksonville is 4-1-1 ATS the L4 here at EverBank Field. The Jags are 3-5 both SU and ATS on Thursdays while the Titans are 2-6 SU and 4-4 ATS in their Thursday affairs. Jacksonville Overs are 6-2 in Jacksonville games an 5-3 in Titans games this year but the L3 games in this series have gone Under (34, 20 and 36 total combined points scored). The Advanced Line on this game from the SuperBook here in Sin City was (Jacksonville minus) -1. Lean Jaguars here as the Titans are a miserable 7-19-8 ATS in their L34 games overall (26.9%) and Jacksonville is 3-0-1 ATS in the L4 meetings with Tennessee.

NFL Pick: Jaguars -3 at Bookmaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837136, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Sunday, November 22, 2015
Washington Redskins vs. Carolina Panthers -7, 45½
The Washington Redskins (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) head to Charlotte and Bank of america Stadium on Sunday to face Cam Newton and the still unbeaten Carolina Panthers (9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS) in this competitive Week 11 inter-divisional tilt. The Panthers knocked off the Tennessee Titans in Nashville on Sunday, 27-7 as QB Cam Newton (21/26, 217, TD) had another workmanlike day for the winners, TE Greg Olsen (8 receptions, 80 yards, 10.0 ypc) and Ted Ginn, Jr. (4 receptions, 45 yards) had solid receiving games, RB Jonathan Stewart (22 rushes, 91 yards, TD) led the Panthers Rushing attack and invaluable LB Luke Kuechly (8 Tackles) again led the underrated Carolina Defense in Tackles. The last time these two teams played, the Panthers won 21-13 in Landover (Maryland) as 3-point underdogs in 2012 while the last meeting here in the Tar Heel State saw the Redskins cover as 5-point dogs in a 20-17 Panthers victory back in 2009. The Redskins are 4-1 ATS the L5 against Carolina in this every-third-year NFC series. Carolina was 8½-point favorites on the Advanced Line, while the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook re-opened Carolina as 7-point chalks (-7½, Pinnacle).

NFL Pick: Panthers -7 

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837140, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Oakland Raiders -1½, 47½ vs. Detroit Lions
This Week 11 game from Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday afternoon sees QB David Carr and the Oakland Raiders (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) head east three Time Zones (PST to EST) to face the Detroit Lions (2-7 SU, 2-7 ATS) in this inter-conference game which will only matter to electric Rookie (Alabama) WR Amari Cooper and the Silver and Black. In Week 10 play on Sunday, Adrian Peterson (203 yards) and the upstart Vikings went into Oakland and plundered the Raiders, 30-14, grabbing the lead in the NFC North after the Packers lost to the Lions and Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson in Green Bay, 18-16. When these two last played back in 2011, Detroit won 28-27 in Oakland as 3-point favorites, giving the Raiders the ATS cover while the last meeting here in Motown, the Steve Mariucci-coached Lions won 23-13 in 2004, covering and winning outright as 3-point underdogs. The Raiders are 5-2 ATS the L7 in this series. The Advanced Line was (Oakland minus) -1.

NFL Pick: Raiders -1 at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837145, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins -1, 47½
Tony Romo (Probable) may be return here in Week 11 for the visiting Dallas Cowboys (2-7 SU, 2-7 ATS) who travel to Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens in Week 11 to face the Dolphins (4-5 ATS, 4-5 ATS) on Sunday afternoon. On Sunday in week 10 play, the Cowboys lost their 7th straight game, falling to the Buccaneers in Tampa, 10-6. When these two teams last met, the Cowboys won 20-19 in Big D but failed to cover as 7-point favorites in 2011 while the last meeting here in South Florida saw Dallas roll to a 37-20 win in 2007 as a 3½-point favorite. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year had the Dolphins lined as 2½-point chalks in this game.

 

Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons -6, 47½
Indianapolis Colts (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS, Open Date) QB Andrew Luck will reportedly miss 2-6 weeks with a Lacerated Kidney, so here at the Georgia Dome on Sunday against the fading Falcons (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS)—Atlanta has lost to Buccaneers and 49ers back-to-back—we’ll be seeing Matt Hasselbeck dueling the Falcons Matt Ryan in this inter-conference game. The Colts lost 31-7 getting 6½ points in Indianapolis the last time these two met in 2011 while in the last meeting here in Atlanta, the Colts won 31-13 and covered ATS as 13½-point favorites in 2007. The Colts are 4-1 ATS in the L5 in this series and a perfect 3-0 ATS the L3 here at the Georgia Dome. But that was with a healthy QB like Peyton Manning, so heading in without Luck in a must-situation for both sides will makes this a tough handicap. Both teams come in off their Open Dates and 13 Days Rest. The Advanced Line from the SuperBook was Falcons -3½, so you can see what the news Luck is definitely out has done to the Point Spread. You can dance if you want to and add them to your NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Colts +7 at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837138, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

St. Louis Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens -1, 42½
The St. Louis Rams (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) and sensational Rookie RB Todd Gurley (Georgia) head to M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Sunday here in Week 11 to face the Ravens (2-7 SU, 1-7-1 ATS). Both teams lost on Sunday in Week 10 play but in different manners as Baltimore fell victim to a Facemask Penalty with no time left, then lost on a FG to the Jaguars, 22-20 while the Rams were blasted by Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, 37-13. The last time these two played, the Ravens won 37-7 in St. Louis, easily covering as 5½-point chalks while the last meeting here in Crab City, the Ravens won 22-3 and got the money as 9-point favorites in 2007. Baltimore and Joe Flacco may be worth backing -1 this inter-conference tilt and will be in a very foul mood after the way the Jacksonville game ended. Rams Unders are 6-3. The Advanced Line from the SuperBook actually had the Rams as 2-point favorites, so you can see how the Bears blowout in St. Louis affected perceptions of this Point spread, actually flipping the favorite, if just barely.

 

New York Jets -2½ vs. Houston Texans
The New York Jets (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) head to NRG Stadium this Sunday afternoon to play the Houston Texans (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, at Bengals on Monday Night Football;  NFL odds: Bengals -11, 47, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) in this Week 11 AFC inter-divisional meeting from Houston and a game where it seems the hosts from the Lone Star State would have been favored a year ago. The last time these two played, the Texans won 23-17 in 2012 as 9½-point favorites at MetLife Stadium, failing to cover ATS while the last meeting here in the Lone Star State (2009) saw the Jets top the Texans, 24-7 in Week 1, winning outright as 4½-point underdogs as the old Reliant Stadium. The Jets are 5-1 ATS the L6 in this series. The Jets will be coming in off a nice 9 Days rest after losing to the Bills at MetLife on Thursday Night Football while Houston will be coming in off its Bye Week and will have had 13 Days Rest. New York starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was reportedly planning on having Surgery on his Left Thumb on Friday and is currently listed as Questionable here while Texans workhorse RB Arian Foster is out for the year.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles -6, 46½
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) and Rookie QB Jameis Winston head to Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia on Sunday to face the Eagles (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) in an NFC inter-divisional game between two teams with the same surprising SU Record (4-5) heading into Week 11. In Week 10, host Philadelphia fell to the Dolphins 20-19 in a game in which Eagles QB Sam Bradford (Left Shoulder, AC Joint Sprain) and RB Ryan Mathews (Head) suffered injuries, while the Buccaneers defeated Dallas, 10-6 in Tampa as WR Mike Evans (8 receptions, 126 yards, 15.8 ypc) rebounded from a drop-infested Week 10 to help the Buccaneers to the victory. The last time these two met, the Eagles won 23-21 in Tampa in 2012 but failed to cover as 7-point favorites while in the last meeting here in the City of Brotherly Love and Cheesesteaks, Philadelphia won 33-14 and covered ATS as 15½-point favorites in 2009. The Eagles are a dismal 4-9-1 the L14 in this series. The Advanced Line here was (Eagles minus) 8.

 

Denver Broncos -2½ vs. Chicago Bears
Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) welcome the Denver Broncos (7-2 SU, 5-3-1 ATS; vs. Chiefs Sunday) to Soldier Field in Chicago on Sunday for this Week 11 thriller and big game for both teams. The last time these two played, the Broncos won 13-10 in Denver in 2011, pushing the 3-point spread under now-Bears Head Coach John Fox, while the last time these two met here in the Windy City, the Bears won 37-34 in 2007 as 1½-point underdogs. The Bears are 6-1-2 ATS the L9 in this series overall and Chicago is 4-1 ATS the L5 here in Chitown, although Denver’s Defenses weren’t as strong as this current unit. ESPN reports Monday that Broncos QB Peyton Manning has a torn Plantar Fascia in his Left Foot, so backup Brock Osweiler will be in for Denver here while RB Matt Forte will likely still be out for Chicago. The Advanced Line here from the SuperBook was (Denver minus) 6½, so you can see the combined effect of what Denver’s embarrassing Loss to Kansas City combined with Chicago’s upset of the Rams in St. Louis and Manning’s Injury did to perceptions of the number.

NFL Pick: Bears +2½ 

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837143, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Kansas City Chiefs -3, 45½ vs. San Diego Chargers
Alex Smith and the neurotic Kansas City Chiefs (4-5 SU, 4-5, W3) head to beautiful San Diego and Qualcomm Stadium to face Philip Rivers and the Chargers (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS) in an AFC West meeting from Southern California. On Sunday, the Chiefs shocked the Broncos in Denver, 24-13 for their third straight Win to move to 4-5 and a tie with the Raiders (4-5) for 2nd Place in the division. Last season, the Chiefs won 19-7 in Week 17 as a 3-point favorite, covering ATS, while in this meeting in San Diego, Kansas City also won by 3, this time as 3-point underdogs. San Diego will be coming in off its Bye Week while the Chiefs will be coming on off a tough game against the Broncos in Denver. The walking wounded Chargers are 0-3 ATS the L3 overall in this series and just 1-3 ATS the L4 here in San Diego. The Westgate Las Vegas NFL Games of the Year had the Chargers as 2-point chalks, so you can what the Bolts poor start has done to perceptions. Two fantastic Skill Position players, Chargers WR Keenan Allen and Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles are both done for the season. The Advanced Line here was (Chiefs) Pick ‘em -120. San Diego is awfully beat up heading in here.

NFL Pick: Chiefs -3 at Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837148, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings -1, 45
This game’s starting time was moved from 1 p.m. EST to 4:25 p.m., so, maybe more eyeballs and more money bet on this NFC North Game of the Year between Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) and Louisville product Teddy Bridgewater and the Minnesota Vikings (7-2 SU, 7-1 ATS). Bridgewater, RB Adrian Peterson and the upstart Vikings went into Oakland on Sunday and made the Raiders walk the plank, 30-14, grabbing the lead in the NFC North after the Packers and Rodgers lost to the Lions at Lambeau Field, 18-16. In Minnesota’s Win, Bridgewater was 14/22 for 140 yards—using 9 different Receivers—and a TD, but veteran workhorse RB Adrian Peterson (26 rushes, 203 yards, TD) went off in the Win against the Raiders at O.co Coliseum, including a thrilling 80-yard TD scamper while Cordarelle Patterson had a 93-yard KO return for a TD for the Vikings. Last year when these Upper Midwestern rivals locked horns, the Packers won here at TCF Bank Stadium, 24-21 but failed to cover as 7-point favorites. With Jordy Nelson out, Eddie Lacy (Questionable) and Rodgers both not playing well and hobbled and Green Bay so desperate, this is one of those games probably best just watched. We’ll have a focus on the Total in this game here in this space later in the week on Friday. The SuperBook Advanced Line here out last Wednesday saw the Packers lined at -3 -120, so you can see how much the Loss to the Lions by Green Bay affected Oddsmakers’ perceptions.

 

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks -11½, 39½
Russell Wilson and the the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (4-5 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) welcome the San Francisco 49ers (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) to CenturyLink Field in the Seattle on Sunday afternoon for this NFC West date and now do-or-die game for TE Jimmy Graham and the hosts after Sunday’s night’s 39-32 Loss to the Cardinals in the Emerald City. When these two met last season, the Seahawks won 17-7 and pushed as 10-point favorites in Seattle while in this meeting in The City By The City By The Bay (Santa Clara), Seattle rolled to a 19-3 Win as 1-point underdog. You read that right brother. The Seahawks are a splendid 8-0-1 ATS the L9 meetings overall in this series and Seattle easily defeated the gutted 49ers, 20-3 earlier this season at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara as 7-point favorites making Seattle 4-1 ATS now in its L5 games in Frisco. The Westgate Las Vegas NFL Games of the Year had the Seahawks as 8½-point favorites here—so even as poor as Seattle has been, you can see the perceptions of the Niners are even worse—while the Advanced Line here was (Seattle minus) 11. San Francisco will be coming in off their Bye Week and off 13 Days Rest and may be going with backup QB Blaine Gabbert (Probable) again here over their usual embattled starter Colin Kaepernick. Seattle will be extremely Mad with a capital ‘M’ heading in here.

NFL Pick: Seahawks -11½ at Bet365

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837147, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals -3
Now we’re talking. The game of the week, this baby in rightfully plopped into Primetime now where we can all salivate and see what’s up between two of the current best four teams in the NFL—Carson Palmer and the host Arizona Cardinals (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) and Andy Dalton and the still unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals (8-0 SU, 7-0-1 ATS; vs. Texans on Monday Night Football; Odds: Bengals -10½, 47, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)—when the meet here at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale and possibly huge game for the visitors in the context of Cincinnati possibly losing a shot at the NFC Home-field advantage with a Loss in the Sonoran Desert where the Prisoners wear Pink (Carolina 9-0). Just having future NFL Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald (10 receptions, 130 yards, 13.0 ypc vs Seattle) and AJ Green on the same football field is one thing, but both of these teams are loaded with Skill Position players and could shock the world and win the Super Bowl this season. On Sunday night, Arizona demoralized the Seahawks, 39-32 in Seattle to take a stranglehold on the NFC West (again). The last time these two teams played, the Bengals won and covered laying 4 points in 2011, 23-16 -4, while in the last meeting here in suburban Phoenix (2007), the host Cardinals won 35-27 and covered s 3-point chalks. The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS the L3 meetings here but those were significantly worse Bengals teams and 13-year Head Coach Marvin Lewis (101-95-10 ATS) and this current Cincinnati team can definitely march in here and pull off the upset, especially with Arizona coming off a rugged Week 10 clash with their rival Seahawks in Seattle. Arizona is a woeful 4-14 ATS at Home at UoP Stadium on Sunday nights while Cincinnati is 2-8 ATS on the Road under the Sunday spotlights, so you can see how much these two teams have improved over the last decade. This one could rocket Over the Total.

 

Monday, November 23, 2015
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots -7, 48½
The Buffalo Bills (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) head to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts next Monday night to face the defending Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots (9-0 SU, 5-2-2 ATS) and QB Tom Brady (72-48-6 ATS at Home) in a massive AFC East showdown and what could be a very exciting Primetime game with the Bills and Head Coach Rex Ryan feeling good and coming in on a 2-game Win streak. On Sunday, Patriots WR Julian Edelman (Foot) suffered a Foot Injury and will be having Surgery and is likely out for the season—a huge hit for New England which lost RB Dion Lewis (Left Leg) for the year earlier this month. In the Week 10 game against the Giants at MetLife, Stephen Gostkowski connected on a 54-yard FG with just :01 second left in the 4th Quarter to give New England a 27-26 victory as Brady (26/42, 334 yards, 2 TDs, Interception), RB LeGarrette Blount (19 rushes, 66 yards, TD, 3.5 ypc) and TE Rob Gronkowski (5 receptions, 113 yards, TD, 27.6 ypc) all had big games. When these two met last year, the Bills won 17-9 in this meeting here in New England in Week 17 as 5-point underdogs but it’s important to note that the Patriots had already clinched Home-field advantage in the AFC and that Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick (156-115-7 ATS) called off the dogs. In the meeting at Ralph Wilson in Buffalo, New England rolled 37-22 as a 1-point underdog and that’s closer to the type of game we may see here, Over and all. The Patriots are 8-12 ATS under the Sunday night lights at Home while the Bills are 7-7 ATS on the Road. The Westgate Las Vegas NFL Games of the Year had the Patriots installed as 6½-point favorites in this contest, so you can see a fairly significant change in perceptions. The Advanced Line was (New England minus) 9½.

NFL Week 11 Bye Weeks: Cleveland Browns, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers