Week 11 NFL Picks: Bet Raiders & Lions to Go 'Over' 50

Teddy Covers

Saturday, November 21, 2015 6:59 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 21, 2015 6:59 PM UTC

In this article we preview the Detroit Lions vs. Oakland Raiders game and explain why you should play the total with your NFL picks this Sunday.

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Oakland Raiders vs. Detroit Lions
On a yards per play basis, the Lions vs. Raiders game is the single worst matchup on defenses in the NFL this weekend.  It’s also the highest posted total as I write this, and for good reason, especially with a blast of wintery weather hitting numerous sites this weekend….but not the enclosed dome at Ford Field!

The Raiders have been NFL laughingstocks for more than a decade, but things are clearly, finally looking up in Jack Del Rio’s first year on the job.  Oakland has developed a big play passing game with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree providing quick strike TD potential on every catch.  Derek Carr is avoiding interceptions, throwing only six picks on 316 pass attempts.  RB Latavius Murray should feast on a Lions defense that’s struggled repeatedly against the run this year.  Off back-2-back losses, expect an inspired performance from this offense this week, against a D that is not poised to stop them.

Carr has a QB rating of 101.5 this year, among the league’s elites.  Meanwhile the Lions defense has allowed opposing QB’s to notch a 105.7 QB rating against them, truly dismal numbers.  They’ve allowed opposing QB’s to throw for 16 touchdowns against them, while intercepting only four passes all year.  Overall, Detroit ranks #28 in yards per play allowed; bad news against a Raiders offense that hung 37 on San Diego and 35 on Pittsburgh in their last two road games, both of which flew Over the total.  In fact, the Raiders have only cashed two Under tickets all year; a consistent moneymaker for those who have bet them Over.

Detroit has cashed four Overs against the NFL odds in their last five games while allowing 28+ in all four of those Over cashes.  But the Lions offense can be expected to step it up a notch or two this week as well.  They’ve scored 56 in their last two home games; more than they’ve scored in their last four road tilts, a team with a clear home/road dichotomy offensively.  Detroit isn’t going to kill much clock with their running game, because they don’t have one.  That means an ample supply of Matthew Stafford drop-backs, looking downfield for Megatron, Golden Tate, Lance Moore, Eric Ebron or any of their other potent stable of receivers.

The Raiders pass defense is not good, lacking elite pass rushers (especially with Aldon Smith getting suspended) and shutdown cornerbacks (only safety Charles Woodson has more than one INT this year).  The better passing teams in the league have feasted on this Oakland secondary. Oakland has allowed more than four TD’s in more than half of their games this year, including three of their last four.  Expect a shootout in the Motor City when placing your NFL picksTake the Over at Bovada.

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