Week 11 NFL Picks - Best 1st Half Bets

Chicago Bears players

Jay Pryce

Thursday, November 17, 2016 7:26 PM GMT

Thursday, Nov. 17, 2016 7:26 PM GMT

There are 14 games played in week 11 of NFL season. Here's a look at some valuable 1st half bets worth playing from a capper's perspective.

 

Chicago Bears vs N.Y. Giants

Chicago’s -8.2 average scoring margin is better than only the Browns (-12.6) and 49ers (-10.7) in 2016. Head coach John Fox has come out the gates competitive against opponents with a negative differential, however, covering three of four 1st-half spreads. Last week’s 36-10 loss to the Buccaneers was the only the time this season not staying within a field goal through the first two-quarters, going into halftime trailing by a touchdown. Tampa’s strong safety Chris Conte returned a rare pick-6 in the first quarter of that one.

The Giants, meanwhile, have yielded 10 or more 1st-half points in their last seven games. In four games against teams with a .500 record or worst, they have sported a lead into the locker room in every contest, but only one by more than 4 points (21-16 vs. Redskins).

The difference-maker for the Bears will be getting to Eli Manning. Chicago’s pass rush is picking up steam with 11 sacks over its last three games, led by rookie linebacker Leonard Floyd. Manning is notoriously bad under pressure. In 2016, his passer rating in a clean pocket is 93.5 versus 72.5 under pressure. Look for the Bears to rattle him early. If they can compete throughout the entire contest is another story.

 

1st. Half NFL Pick: Bears +4.5Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers

The Patriots take their frustration out on opponents after losing outright, going 14-6 ATS in their last 20 after a defeat. Moreover, they take no mercy on losing opponents. Head coach Bill Belichick enters every game with a well-scripted and efficient game plan exploiting opponents’ weaknesses, often jumping out to a big lead—and the 49ers have many flaws.

Since the start of 2015, not including a Week 17 loss last year to the Dolphins where much of the first team rested, the Patriots have taken a 10-point lead or more into the half against foes with a negative point’s differential in seven of 10 games. They are 3-1 ATS in the 1st half on the road in this situation.

San Francisco has given up two touchdowns or more in the 1st half in seven of nine games. The Patriots, meanwhile, have yielded more than a touchdown once out of five games against opponents putting up less than the NFL average of 23.5 points per game entering the contest.

 

1st. Half NFL Pick: Patriots -7Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns

The combined score has stayed under 24 points in the 1st half in 9 of the Browns’ last 11 games against division foes when kicking off as home underdogs. Although the Steelers defense has been in the spotlight for their poor play of late, the offense hasn’t shown much away from Heinz Field this season, scoring a grand total of 32 points in their last three road games—only 11 in the first half combined.

 

1st. Half NFL Pick: Under 23Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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