It’s been a while since I released a teaser play for your NFL picks, but with a load of nice NFL Odds this week, and a great first half of NFL betting, I am back once again for another teaser.
Teaser Tips and Strategy
A teaser is where sportsbooks spot you NFL Odds in exchange for a lower payout, but a two-team, 6-point teaser pays the same as most sportsbooks payout straight wagers, so at times a two-team teaser can be even more valuable than a straight wager.
However, there are some rules to follow. Don’t be distracted by dropping a double-digit favorite down to a single digit one, and try as much as you cannot to cross zero. For instance, if a team is a -3½ favorite, it’s not usually a great move to make them a +2½ underdog on a six-point teaser. Instead look for favorites of -6 or -7 to move to a PK or -1, or even a +5 or +6 underdog and move them to +11 or +12.
Totals are also a nice way to get teaser value. Betting down or up a total in a teaser can always bring good value, but once again don’t get distracted by the high totals of 50 points. Use the same formulas for picking your normal NFL picks, and just extend your value by putting it in a teaser to hedge some. With that in mind, here is my teaser pick for Week 11.
Bucs vs. Eagles
Tampa has looked pretty good at times this season, and others they have looked pretty bad. However, this week as they head into Philadelphia for one of their first truly cold games of the season, they can rest a little easier knowing they are likely facing off against Mark Sanchez. While Sam Bradford hasn’t been great either this season, Sanchez might be a little worse, and the Bucs have done a pretty good job of getting to the quarterback this season.
Tampa has 20 sacks on the year, but even more impressive is they have 15 forced fumbles. Not all of those are off sacks, but they were able to recover nine of those fumbles, and along with their seven interceptions, the Bucs have been good at turning over opposing offenses. With that in mind this week, I think we can easily bank on at least one or two turnovers from the Sanchez-led Eagles offense, so I am teasing the Bucs from their current NFL odds of +5½, all the way up to +11½ for some great teaser value.
Colts vs. Falcons
The Colts will be without their star quarterback, Andrew Luck for the next several weeks, and as they try and salvage their playoff chances, the other teams in their division are cheering for a loss every week. They might get their wish this week against a Falcons team in their own playoff chase, but the better bet between these two high powered offenses might be teasing down the total and taking the over.
At just 47 points, this total is borderline too low for these two offenses, even with Luck sitting this one out. Teasing it down to 41 points, or 41½ is one f my favorite total plays of the week for teasers. Atlanta should decimate this Colts defense, and it would not surprise me to see Matt Hasselbeck lead the Colts offense well in this one.
Free NFL Picks: 2-team teaser: Bucs +11½ & OVER 41 Colts vs. Falcons (-110) at Bookmaker