Week 11 Early Value NFL Picks to Turn the Odds in Your Favor

Kevin Stott

Monday, November 16, 2015 1:04 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 16, 2015 1:04 PM UTC

Without haste, here are the Week 11 Advanced numbers along with recent series results, Trends and some NFL picks for you, Sportsbook Review readers.

Thursday, November 19, 2015
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -1: The Tennessee Titans (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS; vs. Panthers Sunday) head to Everbank Field in Jacksonville next Thursday night in Week 11 to face the Jaguars (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS; at Ravens Sunday), in a low-key AFC South battle between Titans Rookie (Oregon) QB Marcus Mariota and Jaguars QB Blake Bortles and a game many may pass on watching while many other will watch this affair simply because they wagered on it. That’s how it works these days. At the time of this writing, 5Dimes holds the Jags as a -1 point favorite. Last year when these two teams played here in Jacksonville, the Jaguars won 21-13 and covered the 4-point spread while in the first meeting in Nashville, the Titans won 16-14 but Jacksonville again covered ATS, getting 4 points. The Jaguars are 7-1-1 ATS the L9 overall against Tennessee and Jacksonville is 4-1-1 ATS the L4 here at EverBank Field. The Jags are 3-5 both SU and ATS on Thursdays while the Titans are 2-6 SU and 4-4 ATS in their Thursday affairs. Jacksonville Overs are 6-2 in Jacksonville games an 5-3 in Titans games this year but the L3 games in this series have gone Under (34, 20 and 36 total combined points scored). Disciplined gamblers will probably avoid this game for their NFL picks.


Sunday, November 22, 2015
Washington Redskins vs. Carolina Panthers -8½
: The Washington Redskins (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS, vs. Saints Sunday) head south to Charlotte next Sunday to dance with Cam Newton and the possibly still unbeaten Carolina Panthers (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS, at Titans Sunday) in this inter-divisional NFL tilt from Bank of America Stadium. The last time these two teams played, the Panthers won 21-13 in Landover, Maryland as 3-point underdogs in 2012 while the last meeting here in the Tar Heel State saw the Redskins cover as 5-point dogs in a 20-17 Panthers victory back in 2009. The Redskins are 4-1 ATS the L5 against Carolina in this every-third-year NFC series.


Oakland Raiders -1 vs. Detroit Lions: This exciting Week 11 game from Ford Field in Detroit next Sunday afternoon sees QB David Carr and the Oakland Raiders (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS; vs Vikings Sunday) heading east three Time Zones (PST to EST) to face the Detroit Lions (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS; at Steelers Sunday) in this Week 11 inter-conference game which will only matter to electric Rookie (Alabama) WR Amari Cooper the Silver and Black. When these two last played in 2011, the Lions won 28-27 in Oakland as 3-point favorites, giving the Raiders the ATS cover while the last meeting here in Motown (2003), the Steve Mariucci-coached Lions won 23-13, covering as 3-point underdogs. The Raiders are 5-2 ATS the L7 in this series.

Free NFL Pick:  Raiders -1


Dallas Cowboys No Line vs. Miami Dolphins: Tony Romo may be returning in Week 11 for the visiting Dallas Cowboys (2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS, L6; at Buccaneers) who resume their Florida 2015 Tour at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens in Week 11 against the Dolphins (3-5 ATS, 3-5 ATS, at Eagles Sunday) next Sunday. when these two teams last met, the Cowboys won 20-19 in Big D but failed to cover as 7-point favorites in 2011 while the last meeting here in South Florida saw Dallas roll to a 37-20 win in 2007 as a 3½-point favorite. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year had the Dolphins lined as 2½-point chalks in this game.


Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons -3½: Indianapolis Colts (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS, Open Date) QB Andrew Luck will reportedly miss 2-6 weeks with a Lacerated Kidney, so here at the Georgia Dome next Sunday against the fading Falcons—Atlanta has lost to Buccaneers and 49ers back-to-back—we’ll more than likely be seeing Matt Hasselbeck dueling Matt Ryan in this inter-conference game. The Colts lost 31-7 getting 6½ in Indianapolis the last time these two met in 2011 while in the last meeting here in Hotlanta, the Colts won 31-13 and covered ATS as 13½-point favorites in 2007. The Colts are 4-1 ATS in the L5 in this series and a perfect 3-0 ATS the L3 here at the Georgia Dome. But that was with a healthy QB like Peyton Manning, so heading in without Luck in a must-situation for both sides will makes this a tough handicap.


St. Louis Rams -2 vs. Baltimore Ravens: Talk about Point Spreads you thought you’d never see a year ago, the Rams being favored in Baltimore...those St. Louis Rams (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, at Bears Sunday) and sensational Rookie RB Todd Gurley (Georgia) head to M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore in Week 11 to face the Ravens (2-6 SU, 1-6-1 ATS, vs. Jaguars Sunday). The last time these two played, the Ravens won 37-7 in St. Louis, easily covering as 5½-point chalks while the last meeting here in Crab City, the Ravens won 22-3 and got the butter as 9-point favorites in 2007. Baltimore and Joe Flacco may be worth backing +2 in this inter-conference tilt. Rams Unders were 6-2 heading into this coming Week 10.


New York Jets -2½ vs. Houston Texans: The New York Jets (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS; Lost to Bills on TNF) head to NRG Stadium next Sunday afternoon to play the Houston Texans (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, at Bengals Sunday) in this Week 11 AFC inter-divisional meeting from Houston and another game where it seems the host would have been favored a year ago. The last time these two played, the Texans won 23-17 in 2012 as 9½-point favorites at MetLife Stadium, failing to cover ATS while the last meeting here in the Lone Star State (2009) saw the Jets top the Texans, 24-7 in Week 1, winning outright as 4½-point underdogs as the old Reliant Stadium. The Jets are 5-1 ATS the L6 in this series.


Green Bay Packers -3 -120 vs. Minnesota Vikings: Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, vs. Lions Sunday) head across the state line to the Land of 10,000 lakes to face the Minnesota Vikings (6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS, at Raiders Sunday) in a huge NFC North game between two teams currently sitting on 6-2 records heading into Week 10. Last year when these two rivals locked horns, the Packers won here at TCF Bank Stadium, 24-21 but failed to cover as 7-point favorites. With Jordy Nelson out, Eddie Lacy and Rodgers both not playing well and Teddy Bridgewater coming off a nasty elbow to the helmet in Week 9, this game will be without many players performing at their peak but this one here will undoubtedly be the biggest game in this Black-and-Blue division so far this season.

Free NFL Pick:  Packers -3 -120


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles -8: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS; vs. Cowboys Sunday) and Rookie (Florida State) QB Jameis Winston head to Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia next Sunday to face the Eagles (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS; vs. Dolphins Sunday ) in an NFC inter-divisional game and important meeting for the hosts. The last time these two met, the Eagles won 23-21 in Tampa in 2012 but failed to cover as 7-point favorites while the last meeting here in the City of Brotherly Love (2009), Philadelphia won 33-14 and covered ATS as 15½-point favorites. The Eagles are a dismal 4-9-1 the L14 in this series. Lean DeMarco Murray and the Home team.


Denver Broncos -6½ vs. Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS; at Rams Sunday) welcome Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos (7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS; vs. Chiefs Sunday) to Soldier Field in Chicago for this Week 11 thriller and big game for both teams. The last time these two played, the Broncos won 13-10 in Denver in 2011, pushing the 3-point line under now Bears Head Coach John Fox, while the last time these two met here in the Windy City, the Bears won 37-34 in 2007 as 1½-point underdogs. The Bears are 6-1-2 ATS the L9 in this series overall and Chicago is 4-1 ATS the L5 here in Chitown, although Denver’s Defenses weren’t as strong as this current unit.


Kansas City Chiefs PK -120 vs. San Diego Chargers: Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS; at Broncos Sunday) head to beautiful San Diego and Qualcomm Stadium to face Philip Rivers and the Chargers (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS, Open Date) in an AFC West showdown which will prove to be a tough Loss for the eventual loser. Last season, the Chiefs won 19-7 in Week 17 as a 3-point favorite, covering ATS, while in this meeting in San Diego, Kansas City also won by 3, this time as 3-point underdogs. San Diego will be coming in off its Bye Week while the Chiefs will be coming on off a tough game against the Broncos in Denver. The walking wounded Chargers are 0-3 ATS the L3 overall in this series and just 1-3 ATS the L4 here in San Diego. The Westgate Las Vegas NFL Games of the Year had the Chargers as 2-point chalks, so you can see what the Bolts poor start has done to both NFL odds and bettors perceptions. Keep that in mind when placing your NFL picks with your sportsbook of choice.


San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks -11: Russell Wilson and the the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (4-4 SU, 2-5-1 ATS; vs. Cardinals on Sunday Night Football) welcome the San Francisco 49ers (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS, Open Date) to CenturyLink Field in the Emerald City next Sunday afternoon for this NFC West date and big game for TE Jimmy Graham and the hosts. When these two met last season, the Seahawks won 17-7 and pushed as 10-point favorites in Seattle while in this meeting in The City By The City By The Bay (Santa Clara), Seattle rolled to a 19-3 Win as 1-point underdog. You read that right, brother. The Seahawks are a splendid 8-0-1 ATS the L9 meetings overall in this series and Seattle easily defeated the gutted 49ers, 20-3 earlier this season at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara as 7-point favorites making Seattle 4-1 ATS now in its L5 games in Frisco. The Westgate Las Vegas NFL Games of the Year had the Seahawks as 8½-point favorites here. The Niners will be coming in off their Bye Week and off 13 Days Rest and may be going with backup QB Blaine Gabbert again here over their usual embattled starter Colin Kaepernick.

Free NFL Pick:  Seahawks -11


Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals -3: Now we’re talking. The game of the week, this baby in rightfully plopped in primetime now where we can salivate and see what’s up between two of the current best five teams in the NFL. Here at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Carson Palmer, future NFL Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald and the host Arizona Cardinals (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS; at Seahawks Sunday Night Football) welcome Andy Dalton, AJ Green and the possibly still unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals (8-0 SU, 7-0-1 ATS; vs. Texans on MNF) to the desert for a huge game for the visitors in the context of Cincinnati possibly losing a shot at the NFC Home-field advantage with a Loss in the Sonoran Desert where the Prisoners wear Pink. The last time these two teams played, the Bengals won and covered laying 4 points in 2011, 23-16 -4, while in the last meeting here in suburban Phoenix (2007), the host Cardinals won 35-27 and covered s 3-point chalks. The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS the L3 meetings here but those were significantly worse Bengals teams and 13-year Head Coach Marvin Lewis (101-95-10 ATS) and this current Cincinnati team can definitely march in here and pull off the upset, especially with Arizona coming off a rugged Week 10 clash with their rival Seahawks in Seattle. Arizona is a woeful 4-14 ATS at Home at UoP Stadium on Sunday nights, while Cincinnati is 2-8 ATS on the Road under the Sunday spotlights, so you can see how much these two teams have improved over the years.

Free NFL Pick: Bengals +3


Monday, November 23, 2015
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots -9½
: The Buffalo Bills (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS; beat Jets on Thursday Night Football) head down to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts next Monday night to face the defending Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots (8-0 SU, 5-1-2 ATS; at Giants Sunday) and QB Tom Brady (72-48-6 ATS at Home) in a massive AFC East showdown and what could be a very exciting primetime game with the Bills and Head Coach Rex Ryan feeling good and coming in on a 2-game Win streak. When these two met last year, the Bills won 17-9 in this meeting here in New England in Week 17 as 5-point underdogs but it’s important to note that the Patriots had already clinched Home-field advantage in the AFC and that Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick (156-114-7 ATS) called off the dogs. In the meeting at Ralph Wilson in Buffalo, New England rolled 37-22 as a 1-point underdog and that’s closer to the type of game we may see here, Over and all. The Patriots are 8-12 ATS under the Sunday night lights at Home, while the Bills are 7-7 ATS on the Road. The Westgate Las Vegas NFL Games of the Year had the Patriots installed as 6½-point favorites in this contest, so you can see a fairly significant change in perceptions.

NFL WEEK 11 OPEN DATES: Cleveland Browns, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL WEEK 11 ADVANCED LINE PICKS: Raiders -1 over Lions, Packers -3 -120 over Vikings, Seahawks -11 over 49ers, Bengals +3 over Cardinals (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

comment here