Let's hotfoot over to the coming week's NFL betting slate and gauge the early market reactions: how is the public betting and is the early money in line with odds makers expectations?
EARLY BIRD TAKES THE WORM
As the saying implies, value NFL picks are perhaps best found in early betting markets. So we look at where the public is putting its money on each and every game. Based on the percentage of bets in each matchup, we make assumptions about which Week 11 NFL matches the public feels are sure bets, fairly safe bets and complete tossups.
SURE THING BABY
Broncos -9.0 over Rams
Week 11 offers up hardly any matchups that have the appearance of a sure bet, save for the clash between the Broncos and Rams. The Broncos are riding high with a 7-2 SU and ATS mark through nine turns on the NFL betting trading floor. As such, the public is heavily backing their 9-point NFL odds on the spread. Early market reports reveal 69% of the public is behind a convincing win by the Broncos. Where there seems to be absolute consensus is in total betting: 97% of the public is backing the OVER 50.5-point total currently trading. Seeing that the OVER has cashed in Denver's last six games, this does seem to be a safe NFL picks.
Niners -4.0 over Giants
Perhaps, this game should be in the 'fairly safe' category, but NFL betting action reveals a one-sided slant so far. Although both teams can flatter to deceive, the Niners are 5-4-0 ATS, which includes a cover in week 10 NFL betting at the expense of the Saints at home. As a result, the public fancies the Niners as the 4-point road chalk in this game. Largely down to the Giants' negative run of form in recent weeks, only 33% of the public is backing the Giants to turnaround their fortunes at home. What's most surprising about early betting trends on this Week 11 game is the OVER 43.5-point has raked 100% of the action. Clearly, the public feels this total is too low, despite the Niners boasting one of the best defenses in the league, not to mention they lack on the offensive side of the ball as well.
Steelers -5.0 over Titans
All things being considered, this NFL betting line seems way too low. Over 70% of the public has pounced on the Steelers as the 5-point favourites on their NFL picks. Their lacklustre 20-13 defeat to the Jets clearly dismissed as a one-off, an anomaly that could be chalked to the hangover behind three-straight, big wins at home. Of course, it helps that the Titans are abysmal behind a 2-6-1 ATS record and 2-7 SU record on the season.
FAIRLY SAFE BETS
Chargers -10.0 over Raiders
One would assume the Chargers would be an almost lock NFL pick at the expense of the winless Raiders. It so happens, though, they aren't. The NFL betting public is divided on the hefty 10-point spread with 53% backing the Chargers and 47 % piling onto the Raiders. Chargers are 5-4-0 ATS while the Raiders are 4-5-0 ATS on the season. Week 9 saw the Chargers humiliated by the Dolphins in a 37-0 defeat. Understandably, NFL bettors aren't sold on them entirely in this clash even after a bye week to lick their wounds. Raiders remain winless on the season but they are 4-5-0 ATS ahead of week 11, with a famous cover at the expense of Seattle in week 9 NFL betting. Where there is unanimous agreement is in total betting with the OVER 44.5 garnering 100% of the action coming down the wire.
Saints -6.5 over Bengals
Since the Bengals have come crashing down to earth in week 5 NFL betting, they've been a disappointment on the NFL betting catwalk. They are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games and just 2-3-1 SU. Although the Saints lost narrowly to the Niners at home, the betting public has put very little stock in the result. Instead, 67% of early money is on the Saints to return to winning form at home and cover as the 6.5-point favourites. What's more, 61% of early money is also on the OVER 50.5-point total set across online sports betting exchanges.
Packers over Eagles
After the convincing performance by the Packers at the expense of the Bears on Sunday night, few NFL bettors would consider going against them at Lambeau Field, surely. Packers have improved to 5-3-1 ATS on the season, 3-0-1 ATS at home. Eagles are still testing the waters with back-up quarterback Mark Sanchez. They are after a convincing 45-21 win at home to the Panthers, covering as the 6-point home faves handily. It was the perfect introduction to Mark Sanchez at centre against a team that is struggling something huge. Extending that form at the expense of the Packers however is going to be a tough ask. Will NFL bettors buy into that notion or will they back the Packers wholeheartedly?
GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN
Patriots +2.5 over Colts
New England Patriots have defied the odds on numerous occasions this season, twice when they were matched as the home pups this season and once as the road pups. Understandably, the public sees value in the Patriots as the nominal 2.5-point road underdogs on week 11's NFL betting board. Patriots are 5-4-0 ATS this season, which includes a 1-0-0 ATS mark as the road pups on the season. Money coming down the wire at early doors has recorded 61% on the Patriots and just 39% on the Colts, despite the hosts boasting a 3-1-0 ATS mark as home favourites and 7-2-0 ATS overall this season. Does the public have it right or will the bookies clean up?
Seahawks +1.0 over Chiefs
Seahawks are feeling the public's love in week 11 as already early betting markets are pushing the NFL lines in their favour. Seahawks opened as the 1.5-point road underdogs or thereabouts depending on your sportsbook of choice but have been steadily shortening on the odds board. They've been whittled down to Even odds with 66% of bets now recorded in their camp. Chiefs, meanwhile, have attracted just 34% of the market. The public is clearly reacting to Seattle's lastest convincing win over the Giants. But does the public know the Chiefs are 19-6 SU against the Seahawks in their last 25 meetings? The way the NFL odds are moving at the moment, the Chiefs could emerge the savvy NFL pick, especially if they jump fence, over to underdog territory. Overwhelmingly, the public is vested in the OVER 42.5-point total even though trends point towards the UNDER in this clash.
Lions +1.0 over Cardinals
That the public is backing the Lions isn't overly surprising. Carson Palmer's season-ending ACL injury practically made certain this trend would emerge this week. In fact, this NFL line is gradually moving towards the Lions, already down to Even money at some sportsbook exchanges. It wouldn't be surprising if this NFL betting outlook reverses completely, with the Lions closing as the marginal favourites on the road. It's a similarly indecisive split in over-under betting for this matchup with 58% backing the OVER and 42% backing the UNDER at early doors.
Texans +3.0 over Browns
Cleveland Browns are a legitimate 6-3 SU side, top of the AFC North ahead of preseason paper favourites Ravens, Steelers and Bengals. Yet, for some reason, the public isn't buying what they are selling in week 11. Only 43% of the money at early doors has gone towards the Browns as the 3-point favourites at home. Texans, 4-5 SU on the season and 2-3 SU on the road, have managed to attract 57% of the market on this game. Does the public have this game right?
Vikings +3.0 over Bears
Clearly, Bears have lost the public's faith entirely, nowhere more so at Soldier Field where they are winless on the season. Only 45% of early NFL betting money has gone towards the Bears winning and covering as the 3-point home chalk. Not even the prospect of rookie Teddy Bridgewater and a so-so Vikings side is enough to encourage more Bears money. Of course, this early NFL betting trend could turn round as the week progresses.
Dolphins -5.0 over Bills
Miami has the early market cornered with 61% of the bets coming down the wire. A good chunk of the public however is piling on top of the Bills (39%) as the 5-point road dogs. Dolphins are 2-2-0 ATS at home this season while the Bills are 3-1-0 ATS on the road. Both lost their games in week 10 after fritting away leads. Neither side can seem to find any sort of consistency, making this one of the tossups on the week's NFL odds board.
Falcons vs. Panthers
Two decent quarterbacks face off in a matchup that could technically go either way given how each team's season is shaping up at the moment. It's a battle of the inept vs. inept right now. Anybody's guess which side will come through for NFL bettors, but seeing how the Falcons just clinched their first road win, they might find favour with NFL bettors.
Redskins -7.0 over Bucs
If you thought that now RGIII is back the Redskins would strike an attractive pose in NFL betting markets, you couldn't have been more wrong. Redskins have only acquired 51% of the bets on this matchup recorded at early doors. The Bucs, one of the worst outfits this season, have 49% of the early action as the 7-point underdogs. So much for the notion Redskins should now at least be able to beat up on bad teams. This NFL Line is sure to fluctuate as the week progresses and more bets pour in.