Our Week 11 NFL trends and betting angles uncover a spot to back Ben Roethlisberger against a weak pass rush, forecast potential trouble for the Vikings, and expect the Bills hangover to linger at the Chargers.
Pittsburgh hosts Tennessee on Thursday night this week. The Titans defense is one of the worst at getting to the quarterback. It has 14 sacks all season, tied for second fewest in the NFL. Tennessee has had more than enough opportunities, too. Its 3.7 sack percentage is the lowest in the league. This is bad news when facing Ben Roethlisberger at Heinz Field.
Roethlisberger is 33-7 SU and 26-14 ATS all-time at home against teams averaging fewer than 2.0 sacks per game. The 5-time Pro Bowler puts up 7.8 yards per passing attempt in this spot, the offense averaging 26.3 points per game. When the betting line is in single-digit territory, the ATS record improves to 21-9 overall, the Steelers winning by 8.2 points per game. Give Big Ben time in the pocket, and he’ll clean your clock.
Rams Offense Too Potent For Vikes
The Rams travel to U.S. Bank Stadium sporting the top offense in the NFL, posting 32.9 points per game. Their 14.9-point differential is also No. 1 in the league. Past trends suggest the Vikings will keep it close, but likely come up short in the end. Oddsmakers opened Minnesota 2.5-point favorites. Let’s look at the angles.
Since head coach Mike Zimmer took over in 2014, Minnesota is just 4-12 SU and 9-7 ATS in the second half of the regular season vs. teams averaging better than 22.5 points. The always-stout defense has kept more than half under their projected team total (23.1 avg. points allowed), but matching them on the scoreboard (19.1 ppg) has always proven a tough task. Minny has kicked off as a favorite four times under these conditions, going 1-3 SU and ATS. The Rams are the first to test the waters this season. The Vikes have dropped the last seven in a row in this spot.
L.A.’s 14.8 average winning margin is also the highest of any opponent to play in Minnesota in the second half of the season during Zimmer’s tenure. A Rams regression is imminent, but teams winning by more than a field goal in this situation are 5-1 SU and 2-4 ATS. Minnesota kicked off chalk once (-2.5), beating Arizona 30-24 in Week 11 of 2016.Bills Hangover at Chargers
The Chargers are pitiful at home, going 5-13 SU and ATS since Week 4 of the 2015 season. Where they have proven a good bet in this stretch is against opponents coming off bad betting market performances in their previous effort. Four times L.A. has squared off at home against a team failing to match their ATS projection by a touchdown or more last time out. It is 3-1 SU and ATS overall.
The lone loss was by a single point (35-34) to the Saints early last year, a game in which Drew Brees tossed 2 TD passes off a pair of Chargers turnovers in the final four minutes of regulation time. New Orleans blasted Buffalo 47-10 last week, covering the spread (-2.5) by 34.5 points. Expect the Bills hangover from that loss to linger a little longer in a tough West Coast date.