Week 11 Betting Odds Analysis for Conscious NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, November 17, 2015 12:04 PM GMT

As Sunday’s action winds down, bookies roll out NFL odds for week 11. We cast our eye on the preliminary serving on the NFL odds board and analyse the key matchups to spot on your NFL picks.

Week 10 Roundup
Both the Panthers and Patriots improve to 9-0 SU at the close of Sunday’s round of NFL betting action, marking the main flashpoint of the week’s action. The former didn’t have it too difficult over the Titans in a 27-10 winning account, but the latter were under the cosh until Tom Brady’s last drive set up Stephen Gostowski for the game-winning field goal in 27-26 win.

It remains to be seen whether the Bengals will join the leading tandem on Monday Night Football betting as they close week 10 NFL betting.

Other takeaways from the week include the Packers slipping to a third straight defeat – the mother of all shockers – and the Broncos losing to the Chiefs at Mile High in one of the worst performances by Peyton Manning as a Denver Bronco. Speaking of the NFC North, the Vikings currently lead the field with a 7-2 SU record.  Whaaaat?

Elsewhere Ravens slip to a 2-7 SU record following a last-gasp win by the Jaguars; Eagles regress behind a narrow loss to the Dolphins and the Cowboys slip to 2-7 SU after losing to the Bucs 10-6, marking the dullest clash of week 10 NFL betting.

So those were some of the highlights. Let’s now look ahead to week 11’s veritable buffet of NFL betting lines tabled across sports betting platforms for your NFL picks and spot some of the must-see games.

Table 1: Week 10 Opening NFL Odds As Per Odds Shark

The Battle for the NFC North: After Aaron Rodgers and the Packers slipped to a third straight defeat, they opened the door for the Minnesota Vikings to move firmly ahead in the race for the divisional title. So they did with a 30-14 win over the Oakland Raiders to improve to 7-2 SU on the season. Now, the Vikings are at home in week 11, gearing up for a mighty showdown against the Packers all while installed as the home chalk.

At first glance, this market stance looks odd. It’s the first time this season the Packers are matched as the road underdogs – two previous trips saw them trading on favourable odds at Mile High in Denver and Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. Back-to-back losses in those followed by a shocking loss to the Detroit Lions at Lambeau this week – the first in 24 years against their divisional rival – and odds makers have no choice but to take the shine off the Packers.

In more ways than one this is a must-win game for both teams. Opening NFL odds were set to EVEN, but it’s also the Vikings stock is up in NFL betting circles as they improve to 1-point home faves. This is going to be a line to watch this week before making your NFL picks.

As a side note: The NFL has the right to flex games if it so chooses based on the importance of it in the broad spectrum of divisional title runs and/or Conference standings towards the playoff picture. It comes as no surprise therefore that this game was flexed to a 4:25 PM ET start, giving it a wider audience across the nation.

 

Can Panthers and Patriots Continue Winning? Both the Panthers and Patriots opened as 7.5-point favourites in their respective matchups in week 11. The former takes on the Washington Redskins, fresh off an upset win over the Saints at home. The latter take on Rex Ryan and the Bills, buoyed by a win over the NY Jets in week 10. As such, both the Panthers and Patriots have seen their lines fall by half-a-point already to 7-points in some sportsbooks. These might shorten further depending on the action coming down the wire. Pay attention.

 

Seahawks Riding Two-Game Home Losing Streak: In spite of the a two-game losing streak at home highlighted by losses to the Panthers and Cardinals, the Seahawks enter week 11 as the significant home favourites on 10-points at opening doors. The fact that they are coming up against Blaine Gabbert and the Niners has everything to do with that double-digit outlook. What’s more, given how poorly the Niners have played this season, it seems NFL bettors are merrily pounding the Seahawks on their NFL picks, prompting bookies to increase the line up to 12-points in some cases.

 

Tony Romo Is Back: Most likely, Tony Romo returns to the fold in week 11 to lead the 2-7 SU Cowboys into Miami. The Cowboys are riding a seven-game losing streak, the worst run of form of any team in the NFL this season. They are desperate to get back into the win column but can’t seem to buy a win no matter how hard they try. Can Romo finally cash one in for the Cowboys as the nominal 1-point underdog?