Week 10 Special Props: Mahomes Gunning for Cardinals & Chicago Sack Exchange

Swinging Johnson

Friday, November 9, 2018 4:16 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 9, 2018 4:16 PM UTC

There are teams that look like a good bet, totals you like, but prop bets are another way to add to your bankroll. Let’s check out a few in Week 10 that look like good value as part of your NFL picks this weekend.

Total Passing Yards for Mahomes in Week 10
  • Over 299.5 Yards (-175) at Bovada
  • Under 299.5 (+135)

When you think Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes in 2018, you think long ball, 300-yard games and touchdowns. That’s the public perception, and based on what he’s done thus far it’s hard to argue. However, the NFL odds board is teasing us with this prop because it’s like buying gas and you see that the price is $2.83 per gallon. Well, no, it’s nearly $2.84 but you don’t notice the 9/10th at the end of the price on the board. Of course, we know it’s there and just like this 299.5, the masses will see they can get Mahomes to go over at less than 300 yards and will salivate at the prospect. They won’t care about the 75 cent vig, either, because you don’t pay juice when you win.

Well, we’re going the other way. The Cardinals look like easy pickins at Arrowhead as evidenced by the 17-point impost on the heavily-favored Chiefs. Only in Week 1 did Mahomes put up less than 300 yards passing which makes “under” a contrarian play in more ways than one. However, as lousy as the Cardinals are, one thing they do right is defend the pass as they rank seventh in the league in passing yards allowed by surrendering just 225 per game. Patrick Peterson is the mainstay in the Arizona secondary, and he takes away the opposition’s top target, in this case Tyreek Hill, which will obviously impact Mahomes’ stats. And let’s also not forget that if the Chiefs break out to a comfortable lead, they may be inclined to run the ball and grind the clock. Go low in this prop and grab the juice in your NFL picks!

Free NFL Pick: Under 299.5 Passing Yards

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Snow today.
Storms on Sunday.#DaBears pic.twitter.com/RjcbgZFexY

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) November 9, 2018
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Total Sacks by the Chicago Bears in Week 10
  • Over 3.5 (-120)
  • Under 3.5 (-120)

The Bears will entertain Matt Stafford and the Lions on Sunday at Soldier Field with an eye towards maintaining first place in the NFC North. This could be a good spot for the Bears’ defense to play wrecking ball to Stafford’s aging edifice. The veteran quarterback was punished last week by a relentless and swarming Vikings’ pass rush and found himself sacked a career-high 10 times over the course of the afternoon.

The Bears may not reach those lofty heights this week but the 'over' 3½ sacks certainly looks easy enough, particularly when you consider that the Bears have 24 on the season, which ranks them seventh in that category. Chicago had four last week against the Bills, and against a porous Detroit offensive line there should be at least that many this week -- especially with pass-rushing stud Khalil Mack expected back after missing the past two due to injury.

Free NFL Pick: Over 3.5 Total Sacks

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