Week 10 Opening Lines: Are Chiefs Too Chalky for Your NFL Picks?

Jason Lake

Monday, November 5, 2018 6:57 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 5, 2018 6:57 PM UTC

The Kansas City Chiefs look like the best team in football. The Arizona Cardinals? Not so much, but they might be getting enough points to go in your Week 10 NFL picks.

Now here’s something you don’t see every day: The Kansas City Chiefs opened as 18.5-point home faves for next Sunday’s game (1 p.m. ET, FOX) against the Arizona Cardinals. According to the fine folks at Pro Football Reference, there are only 17 games on record where the NFL odds were that high. And go figure, the underdog lost every single game. But they also cruised to a 13-4 ATS record. You want the Cardinals in your Week 10 NFL picks, right?

Maybe. The sharps, being sharp and everything, have already jumped on these odds and driven the Chiefs (8-1 SU and ATS) down to –16.5 at most locations. That might still be enough points to fade arguably the best team in the league right now; FiveThirtyEight have Arizona (2-6 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) projected as a 14-point road dog. But crossing that magic number 17 is a big dent in your potential profit margin. Hope you got in early while the getting was really good.

Chalking in L.A.

Two other teams opened as double-digit dogs for Week 10: the Oakland Raiders (1-7 SU, 3-6 ATS), who are getting 10 points at home versus the Los Angeles Chargers (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS), and the Seattle Seahawks (4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS), who are 10-point puppies on the road versus the Los Angeles Rams (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS). The early consensus reports show 67 percent of bettors on the Chargers and 56 percent support for the Seahawks.

But wait, there’s more. The Miami Dolphins (5-4 SU and ATS) opened as 9-point road dogs against the Green Bay Packers (3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS); at press time, Miami is available at +10 following heavy betting on the Pack. Sportsbooks got absolutely soaked in Week 9 when favorites like Kansas City (–8 on the road in Cleveland) covered the spread. Maybe this will be their chance for redemption.

Blue Peterman

If you’re looking for totals big and small, the New Orleans Saints (OVER 4-4) once again have the biggest over/under on the NFL odds board, checking in at 54 points for their road game against the Cincinnati Bengals (OVER 5-3). That’s down from 55 at the open, making this one of those somewhat rare occasions when the sharps didn’t pounce on the OVER as soon as the dinner bell rang.

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Reminder: the Bills signed a player this week who...

- Has won multiple NFL starts at QB
- Wears a QB eligible number
- Doesn't throw an interception on 11% of his passes
- Isn't Nathan Peterman pic.twitter.com/HiWQ5rxSZC

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) 4 de novembro de 2018
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On the other side of the coin, there’s a 37-point total on the board for Sunday’s battle at The Swamp between the New York Jets (OVER 5-4) and the Buffalo Bills (UNDER 6-3). This game opened at 36.5; the sharps were understandably keen on getting in before the total hit the magic number 37 – yes, there are magic numbers for totals – but if the Bills trot out Nathan Peterman as their starting quarterback again, the Jets might have to score all 37 of those points themselves to prevent the UNDER from cashing in. Shop smart, and may the prolate spheroid be with you in Week 10.

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