Week 10 NFL Picks: Side With Giants to Cover ATS vs. Patriots at Home

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, November 14, 2015 9:51 PM GMT

The New England Patriots look to improve to 9-0 when they visit the New York Giants and we found betting value on this game. Read why we like the Giants for our Big Dog of the Week NFL pick.

New England Patriots (-7) vs. New York Giants 4:25 EST
The New England Patriots travel south to the Meadowlands to face the New York Giants in this 4:25 ET kick. It will be the first matchup of the teams since the 2011 Super Bowl (won by the New York Giants). Have Brady and Belichick really waited four years for their Super Bowl revenge?  Knowing the above and the statistics of New England this season, is it not sacrilege to fade the Patriots at this price point?

 

New England Patriots
Motivated by Deflategate and the opportunity to snub their collective noses at the NFL, the Patriots have exploded from the gate with a perfect 8-0 record, including 5-2-1 ATS. In fact, every victory has been by 7 or more points with their only non covers in the role of double digit favorite. Today, however, New England is in one of the toughest scheduling scenarios of the season, for they will now be playing as non-division road favorite following three consecutive home wins (two of them division games), in which they have outscored the opposition 93-40. And if there’s one role in which New England has faltered, it is the one in which they stand 4-8 ATS recently as road chalk. Well aware of the New England excellence on offense, which finds Brady completing 69% of his passes with a 22/2 ratio. That means they are averaging NFL highs of 35 PPG, 420 YPG, and 6.5 YP play. Even for the Patriots, however, what goes up must come down!

 

New York Giants
The New York Giants have been a shaky defensive team at best. The team allows 25 PPG on 423 YPG and 6.2 DYP play. Those latter numbers are among the worst in the league.  Yet, the Giants maintain positive records for the season of 5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS. That includes a confidence building road win last week, when they defeated Tampa Bay 32-18. Now, the Giants return with huge confidence in playing in an optimum role where they are a perfect 14-0 ATS as underdog of 5 or more points coming off a victory.

B. U. D. s (Big Ugly Dogs) rarely look pretty, especially in the NFL. Just such is the case any time we are fading New England this year in NFL play. But with the help of huge converging technical support, I invite you to join me for this week’s top Big Dog play in the NFL. Put the NFL odds in your favor with this week’s NFL pick on the New York Giants plus the points vs the New England Patriots as the Big Dog Game of the Week.

NFL Picks: Giants +9 at 5Dimes

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