Patriots-Titans A Risky Bet: Crystal Ball Cloudy on Side but Clear on Total

Pats vs. Titans

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, November 7, 2018 5:16 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 7, 2018 5:16 PM UTC

The Patriots will invade Nashville after an impressive win over the Packers but the Titans are coming off a solid win of their own over Dallas. The oddsmakers have this one pegged just right so we will eschew the side and put a wager on the total.

Tennessee (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) at New England (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS)Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)If You Must Bet: UnderBest Line Offered: Bookmaker

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I’m not sure what you do when you research a game but the first thing I do is set my own line before I look at the NFL odds board. I don’t want to be influenced and my immediate leans are those in which my line differs noticeably from those being dealt by the professionals who hang lines for a living. Last week the Patriots dispatched the Packers 31-17, and all that Brady vs. Rodgers nonsense came to a screeching halt, while the Titans overcame a first-quarter funk and drew away to a 28-14 road win over the Cowboys.

As for this matchup, I made my line New England -7 and it appears that most of the books are with me, although we do have 6 ½‘s out there. As big a deal as that hook can be, it’s not enough to get me to lay 6½ with the visitor because the Pats are dreaming of their bye week while the Titans could very well be buoyed by their solid win last week. If Belichick’s boys are locked in, then it’s a double-digit victory, however, Gronk will miss this game and who knows how well Sony Michel will bounce back after being on the shelf for the last two games? The whole things seems a bit suspect to me so both sides are a pass.

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\"Grinded it out, came in, did what we needed to do.\"

BB's postgame speech & #Patriots locker room celebration after victory vs. Packers. pic.twitter.com/H7fHWjoVWp

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 7, 2018
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However, if you have to include this game as one of your NFL picks this Sunday then I would suggest a wager on under in this game. The Patriots’ defense checks in at No. 11 in points allowed (22.4 PPG) despite a pass defense that has been of the bend-but-don’t-break variety. Stephon Gilmore is a true stud in the secondary and the team’s 11 picks are tied for fourth in the league. Marcus Mariota will have to be very cautious about slinging it against this ball-hawkish defensive unit and we may see more ground-and-pound than usual from the Titans.

Tennessee boasts a top 10 pass defense and despite the danger of a Tom Brady led offense, they should be able to disrupt the New England passing attack enough so that the scoreboard doesn’t flash crooked numbers on a regular basis. Below we find a few stats trending in the direction of a low scoring affair.

  • Under is 6-2 in Patriots last eight road games.
  • Under is 12-4 in Patriots last 16 games on grass.
  • Under is 8-3 in Patriots last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-0 in Titans last five vs. AFC.
  • Under is 5-2 in Titans last seven games overall.
  • Under is 5-2 in Titans last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 7-3 in Titans last 10 games following an ATS win.

The choice is yours. You can dabble on the side but make sure to get down on the under as the final score should look something like Patriots 24 –Titans 17.

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