Week 10 NFL Picks: False Favorites & Dangerous Dogs

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, November 5, 2014 11:51 AM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2014 11:51 AM UTC

Just missed a perfect 3-0 week with our NFL picks for this article against the sportbooks last Sunday. I am poised and ready to take another swing at the betting odds for this week.

We have a slight deviation with this week's free NFL picks, having two Top Underdogs and just one False Favorite this week.


Miami Poised as Live Road Underdog in the Motor City
The Dolphins at this time are one of more polarizing team in the NFL. On one side you have those NFL football handicapper who consider themselves forward-thinkers and believe they can sense when a team is locked in and have no problem backing Miami who is 3-0 SU and ATS of late and on a 4-1 SU and ATS tear.

The other camp suggests the only thing Miami is known for football-wise is being consistently inconsistent, which is why they are 51-53 since the start of the 2008.

At the moment anyway, this squad does have a more confident look about them and from a wagering point of view, they are 30-13 ATS the past 11 years as non-AFC East road underdogs, making them a palatable play as a pooch.

NFL Underdog with Bite – Miami

Free NFL Pick: Bet Under 42 at Pinnacle

San Francisco gets busy in the Big Easy
You would have to be a hardcore 49ers fan to remember the last time San Francisco was abused on the offense line like what St. Louis did to them with eight sacks.

The Niners offense is completely out of sync and has lost their way, seemingly wanting to turn Colin Kaepernick into more of an Aaron Rodgers type as opposed to who he is.

San Francisco’s offense is at its best when they commit to running the ball and this is bore out again, being 4-0 SU and ATS when they have 30 or more runs attempts and 0-4 SU and against the spread when they do not.

Sometimes you cannot beat the NFL odds if you fall behind early and are forced to throw, I get it, but the proof is in the numbers not only this year, but during Jim Harbaugh’s tenure.

Expect San Francisco to return to its core values as team against New Orleans and those backing the 49ers to be rewarded this week.

NFL Underdog with Bite – San Francisco

Free NFL Pick: Bet Under 42 at Pinnacle

Ben Roethlisberger Cannot Stay This Hot Can He?
Twelve touchdown passes in two games - that is what Ben Roethlisberger has accomplished. To put this figure into perspective, in those eight quarters, that is more touchdown tosses in two weeks than 12 other NFL quarterbacks who have made four or more starts for their respective teams on the season.

The strangest aspect is just the game prior on a Monday night; Big Ben has virtually no connection with his receivers in the first half against Houston.

One thing to consider, this was done in the Steel City where Pittsburgh has played the past three weeks and while the New York Jets are not going to drum up much support as play on team, the circumstances would appear to be working against the Steelers who are 6-15 ATS facing clubd being outscored by six or more points a game. This line could be a trap for NFL bettors.

NFL False Favorite – Pittsburgh

Free NFL Pick: Bet Under 42 at Pinnacle

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