Week 10 NFL Betting: Who Will the Public Blindly Back?

Jason Lake

Monday, November 3, 2014 1:31 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 3, 2014 1:31 PM UTC

For a change, the Denver Broncos weren’t the overwhelming choice of bettors in Week 9. But the Broncos will no doubt be a very popular Week 10 NFL pick when they visit the Oakland Raiders as double-digit favorites.

Jason’s record after Week 8: 24-33 ATS, 9-12-1 Totals

Profit: minus-29.93 units

It’s too bad the Denver Broncos can’t play the New England Patriots every week. Although Denver supporters might feel differently after their heroes lost 43-21 to the Patriots on Sunday. It was a tough day at Foxborough for Peyton Manning and Friends, but not entirely unpredictable – according to our consensus reports, the betting public was split pretty evenly between the two sides, with Denver laying three points on the road.

That’s what happens when you put two of the NFL’s most popular teams on the same field. But the story will change dramatically in Week 10, as will the NFL odds. Denver’s next game is next Sunday afternoon (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS) against the Oakland Raiders, who remain winless this year after dropping a 30-24 decision to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 9. Will people place their NFL picks on the Broncos this time? Is Luxembourg small?


Is Manning Godhead?
It’s pretty common these days for people to open up their wallets and/or purses and bet on the Broncos (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS). They were the No. 6 team on the public money charts in the 30 days before losing to New England – coinciding with their 4-0 SU and ATS streak after taking the bye in Week 4. Compare and contrast to the Raiders (0-8 SU, 4-4 ATS), who are No. 30 in public money over the past month.

You won’t find much argument over which team is better. However, this is exactly the kind of situation where sharp bettors have a chance to put one over on the general public. The Broncos have opened as 11-point road favorites against Oakland. Casual fans can be expected to overlook that spread and unload on Denver – especially as the weekend rolls around. They might even bet enough to make the spread jump to 12.5 or 13 points by kick-off.

That’s no guarantee the Broncos will fail to cover, of course. They might be 3-8 ATS as double-digit road faves dating back to 1987, but in the Manning Era, they’re 2-1 ATS, including back-to-back covers against Oakland. Still, if you’re in the market for some betting value, the Raiders are here for your consideration. They just got the cover as big dogs against Seattle (–13.5 at home), after all.

And Do Bears Sha-la-la-la-la?
Not quite to your NFL betting satisfaction? Perhaps we can interest you in a slightly used Chicago Bears team. They’re 3-5 SU and ATS after going into a horrible tailspin, losing four of their last five games. And their Week 10 opponents are the same team that put them on this wayward track, the Green Bay Packers. Chicago has opened as a 7.5-point road dog.

Once again, there’s no denying that the Packers (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) are the better team right now. But they’re also a tremendously popular team, No. 5 on the public money charts for the entire season – they had the bye in Week 9. So did the Bears, who are No. 15 in public money for the year and dropping like a stone. This could be another worthwhile “buy low” opportunity at sportsbooks like Pinnacle; Chicago is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine trips to Lambeau when getting more than seven points.

We’ve also got an interesting situation brewing in Baltimore, where the Ravens have opened as 10-point home favorites against the Tennessee Titans. Baltimore is still in action as we go to press, so we’ll need to see if there are any injuries or other developments of note. But the Titans are dead last on the public money charts, and they also had the bye in Week 9 while the Ravens had to play the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday night. Bet on Baltimore at your peril.

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