Week 10 NFL Betting - Falcons & Jaguars Amongst Top Last Minute Picks

Matt Ryan & Julio Jones

Saturday, November 12, 2016 9:55 PM GMT

Picks in the Texans-Jaguars, Dolphins-Chargers, and Falcons-Eagles games highlight out last-minute NFL plays in Week 10. Are you on the same sides? Check out the plays here.

Texans (-1.5) vs Jaguars

Analysis: Neither team is doing much offensively, each ranking in the league’s bottom five in points scored. The Jaguars put up 19.1 points per game, while the Texans manage a measly 17.1. But Houston’s unit is particularly anemic away from home, posting 7.3 points per game. Granted in its three road tests, it faced some of the NFL’s toughest Ds, including the Broncos, Vikings, and Patriots.

Jacksonville, though, is proving one of the most efficient, too, yielding a sixth-best 5.0 yards per play. The Jags must find a way to pressure Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler, who is awful under duress. Whichever team wins the sack battle, more than likely wins the game. Jacksonville signal caller Blake Bortles is mistake-prone as well.

For my last minute NFL pick, I expect a low-scoring game with a well-executed 2-minute drill to win it. Historically, the home team is 4-1 SU and ATS when the line is in-between field goals in the series.

Free NFL Pick: Jaguars +105Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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 Dolphins vs Chargers (-4)

Analysis: This game will be determined by the success of young workhorses Jay Ajayi and Melvin Gordon. Miami’s offense has found new life under Ajayi, scoring 30, 29, and 27 points in its last three games. The second-year pro has rushed for 529 yards in this stretch. The Chargers, though, have allowed only one team (Falcons) to go over the century mark this season. Don’t expect this to deter the Dolphins’ game plan, however.

San Diego’s Melvin Gordon leads the NFL in rushing attempts (193), and totaled 196 yards from scrimmage last week. The Dolphins will throw many bodies forward to contain him, and their “wide 9” scheme should help keep Gordon between the tackles.

Since 2015, the Chargers are just 3-12 SU when losing the rushing battle, dropping four of five as favorites. If Miami can’t establish a solid rushing game, quarterback Philip Rivers and company will likely light up a Reshad Jones-less secondary.

For what it’s worth, the UNDER is 10-0 in the last 10 meetings.

Free NFL Pick: Dolphins +4Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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Falcons vs Eagles (PK)

Analysis: Every Falcons game this season has finished with a combined score of 49 points or more. In order for the Eagles to win, they’ll have to keep pace—a tough task for any rookie quarterback in the league. Three of the four Philly losses have come against teams averaging more than 270 passing yards entering the contest. The defense allowed 24, 27, and 28 points in these, respectively. Carson Wentz is proving a very, very good quarterback, but we’ll take Matt Ryan head-to-head in a projected shootout in this spot.

Free NFL Pick: Falcons -116Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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