We look ahead to week 10’s NFL betting slate and examine how the betting public’s early money is trending. Find out if the action is falling in line with sportsbook forecasts.
EARLY BIRD's Week 10 NFL Betting Preview
After last week’s wild run around the NFL track, we look ahead to the NFL odds board for the upcoming week 10. Specifically we look at early betting trends and determine which games are sure things, or as close to it as it can get, which are fairly sure bets, and which are complete tossups that could go either way. Also, we look at which games offer the highest probability of the upset.
SURE THING BABY
Broncos -12.0 over Raiders
Of all the games, this one is the surest NFL pick of the lot on paper. Reason being is a) the Raiders are winless on the season, the lone winless team in both the AFC and NFC Conferences combined; and b) after being shelled at Foxborough by Tom Brady and the plucky Patriots, wide expectations have Peyton Manning and the Broncos bouncing back in a big way. At the moment various online NFL betting sources are recording approximately 66% of the money on this matchup in the Broncos camp to cover the hefty spread of 12-points (or thereabouts) and 100% of the money coming down the wire on the OVER 48.5-point total set for this game.
Bengals -6.0 over Browns
The NFL betting public is heavily invested in the Bengals in early betting markets with various online sources recording 63% of the action coming down the wire going towards the Bengals at home. Where the overwhelming consensus appears to be is in total betting with a whopping 96% going towards the OVER 44.5-point total set across various sportsbooks. If you agree with this early NFL betting trend, jump on these NFL lines before the betting public bets them up further.
Steelers -4.0 over Jets
This might be the softest NFL betting outlook of the week’s slate. Steelers are after a monster three-game winning stretch, but they are matched as only nominal 4-point road favourites against the New York Jets. Seriously, with the quarterback issues in the Jets camp, such an outlook seems puzzling. It’s no wonder early trading reveals money pouring onto the Steelers side of the coin. At the moment, sportsbooks are recording a staggering 71% stake in the Steelers.
Eagles -6.0 over Panthers
Finally, Monday’s clash between the Eagles and Panthers emerges as the most one-sided with a staggering 92% of the betting public backing the Eagles at -6-points at home to the Panthers. That there’s a quarterback change in the Eagles’ camp – Nick Foles is out (collarbone injury), Mark Sanchez in – hasn’t fazed the faith in the Eagles value as the sharp NFL pick. Nor has it deterred bookies one might add. Clearly, bookies are confident with either centre to lead Chip Kelly’s offense, particularly against a Panthers side that leaves much to be desired since Cam Newton and the Panthers’ standout deposit against the Bengals in week 6 NFL betting. Arguably, the best deposit by the black cats this season.
FAIRLY SURE BETS
Ravens -9.5 over Titans
Baltimore Ravens are installed as the whopping 9.5-point favourites at the expense of the visiting Titans on week 10’s NFL odds page. The reason for that is a) the Ravens at home are a solid team and b) the Titans are a one-win wonder this season. When comparing the X’s and O’s, the Ravens to win this game is an almost foregone conclusion. So why are they in our fairly sure bet section, you may be wondering.
Well, fact is, they don’t appear to be a sure NFL pick to lay the points. Since 2013, the Ravens are 7-5-0 ATS at home with a 6.7-point margin of victory and an average of plus 4-point cover margin. That’s why the betting public would appear to be almost split down the middle as far as the spread is concerned in this match with 57% backing the Ravens minus the points and 43% backing the Titans to pull off the road cover.
Packers -7.0 over Bears
For some reason, this matchup reveals a spilt in betting opinion. If the public had its way, this game would be in the ‘Complete Tossup’ section below. For our money, this is a fairly sure bet.
Packers have the market cornered with just 53% of the money (what?). Bears seem to be striking a convincing pose as the 7-point underdogs as they’ve garnered 47% of the money (huh?). To us, that’s a bit surprising. It’s the Packers at the Lambeau after all. It’s R-E-L-A-X Aaron Rodgers vs. Jay~walking Cutler. It’s the god-awful Bears, lest everybody’s forgotten. Oh, and the Packers are a perfect 2-0-1 ATS at home this season with a 20-point margin of victory.
Seahawks over Giants
Although the Seahawks are far from a sure bet at home these days, they would appear to be a fairly sure NFL pick against a banged up Giants side. Well, at least to win SU, you’d think. Since 2013, the Seahawks are 8-6-0 ATS with an 11.6-point winning margin on average and a plus 1.9-point average margin of cover. What’s more, the Seahawks have failed to cover their last four games, including last week when they allowed the hapless Raiders to storm back and cover as the whopping 15-point underdogs. So that’s something NFL bettors are going to have to consider before weighing in on this clash. How much do you trust this season’s Seahawks with your NFL picks against the spread.
Falcons (Even) over Buccaneers
The money coming down the wire on this game is almost wholeheartedly invested in the Falcons. Indeed, sports betting exchanges are recording 71% of the money on the Falcons, despite the fact that they are riding a five-game losing streak. At the heart of it is the balance of the quarterback, which tips towards the quality of Matt Ryan rather than his opposite. Where there is ultimate consensus in this game is in total betting. Unanimously (100%) the public is backing the Over 43.5-total set by the Vegas gods.
ODD ONES OUT
Rams +7.0 over Cardinals
At face value, this game looks like a straightforward affair for the Cardinals, who are the lone team in the league boasting just one defeat on the season. Needless to say, few would have predicted the Cardinals would be the best team, so to speak, by the numbers – 7-1SU, 4-0 SU at home. Curiously, football-betting aficionados are buying what the Rams are selling. Early indications show that 52% of the money is going towards the Rams to cover as the 7-point road dogs. That’s a conspicuous reaction to their big win over the Niners last Sunday and upset win over the Seahawks earlier this season. The UNDER 43-points is also garnering 55% of the public’s money. Does the public have it right or will the bookies clean up nicely?
Chiefs -1.5 over Bills
The NFL betting public is backing the road upset here with the Chiefs raking in 65% of the early money. That has something to do with the fact that the Bills are 1-3-0 ATS at home this season perhaps. That said both sides are riding winning streaks ahead of this clash – Chiefs have won three in a row while the Bills have won two in a row. Something is going to have to give when they collide. In more ways than one, this matchup is a complete tossup, and it probably should be listed in the corresponding section. Why have we put it in the ‘Odd Ones Out section’, might you be wondering. Well, simply because the way the betting public is reacting to the NFL odds on this game, already pushing the lines down towards the hosts, we think there could be a lot of fluctuation and fence jumping by bookies before the book closes.
Cowboys over Jaguars
Cowboys beating the one-win Jaguars is the instinctive NFL pick on this game. However, with the questions hanging over Tony Romo – compounded by the Cowboys’ inability to win without him last week – this game is a complete tossup. Jacksonville Jaguars have been the goose that lays the golden egg against the spread in recent weeks. It wouldn’t surprise us if the NFL betting public piles on top of them as soon as the trading windows open for this game.
Lions -3.0 over Dolphins
Detroit have 61% share of NFL wagers at early doors, but the Dolphins aren’t a side to take lightly. They have 39% of the money, which is a good chunk of change. What’s more, the NFL betting lines continue to fluctuate. The idea is that Ryan Tannehill isn’t being given the credit he deserves, particularly after tearing the Chargers to shreds in a 37-0 victory on Sunday.
Saints -4.0 over Niners
We’d have had this matchup in the ‘Fairly Sure’ category. For a change though we’re listening to the betting public and dropping it into this ambiguous section. It’s a 60-40 split at early doors in favour of the Saints against the spread and an almost similar split in over-under betting. Thing is: the Saints have yet to play this season a stingy defense as the Niners boast, so nothing can be taken for granted. Including the Saints’ impressive record at the Superdome, which is irreproachable in SU betting and ATS since 2013. Clearly, the public is not willing to write off the Niners just yet from their NFL picks.