Week 10 Betting Trends: Be Wary of Big Ben at Indy?

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, November 7, 2017 4:04 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2017 4:04 PM UTC

Our Week 10 NFL trends and angles to consider uncovers a spot to fade Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, forecasts potential trouble for the staunch Jaguars defense, and leans ‘under’ the total in the Cowboys-Falcons clash. 

Roethlisberger Lying Too Many Points?

The Steelers are 10-point favorites at the Colts Sunday. The Steelers are 29-34-1 ATS (46 percent) as road chalk when quarterback Ben Roethlisberger starts under center. The average line is -5.3. When Pittsburgh gifts more than this figure on the NFL oddsboard, the cover rate drops to 9-19 ATS (32 percent). Big Ben and crew tend to under-perform offensively, more so against leaky defenses. The Steelers average 19.2 points per game in 14 played vs. units allowing more than 25.0 entering a contest. They have scored above their projected team total once by a total of 1 point. The Colts yield 28.9 per game, most in the NFL.

Jags Reversion Imminent?

The Jaguars own the NFL’s top scoring defense (14.6). It allowed a franchise-low 7 points total in the last two games and 43 combined in its last four. The latter equates to 37.5 points below betting market projections. This has proven a danger spot for many teams in Jacksonville’s position this Sunday. Not including the playoffs, home favorites holding their last four opponents at or below a team total sum of 35 points or less are 20-30 SU and 15-32-1 ATS since 1989. The average line is -3.9 with a 40.1 game total, nearly identical to the Jags-Chargers matchup (-4, 41.5).

Cowboys Offense Sputters Here

The ‘under’ is 16-6 when the Cowboys kick off road underdogs following a home game since Jason Garrett took control in 2011. A combined score of 42.9 points is staying 5.3 below a 48.2 average game total. The Dallas offense tends to fall flat in this spot, posting 19.4 points per game. The unit has failed to reach its projected team total in all but six of the 22 contests. The 3-point favored Falcons, who led the NFL with 34.1 points per game last year, enter this matchup scoring a pedestrian 21.3 per tilt, third fewest the ‘Boys have faced in this situation.

Broncos, Giants Points Bonanzas

The Broncos and Giants each did something last week that happens at most a few times a season: allow 50 points or more in a game. The Eagles and Rams both put up 51 points against in their respective matchups. Trends suggest bettors could see Denver and New York in more high-scoring affairs Sunday. Since 1989, teams that yield 50 points or more last time out and own a defense allowing fewer than 28 points per game for the season see the follow-up effort go 21-7 ‘over’ the total; a combined 51.7 points skyrockets past an average 43.7 game total under these conditions.  

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