Week 1 NFL Top Value Picks Against the Spread

Nikki Adams

Saturday, September 6, 2014 9:50 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 6, 2014 9:50 PM UTC

The book is all but set to close on the first week of NFL betting, so get your ATS picks in before it’s too late. Here are some of our top picks for you to bank on. 

Oakland Raiders +5.5 at New York Jets -5.5
NFL Betting Analysis: There is still a lot of uncertainty about the Jets offense this season, whether it’ll improve from last year’s challenges and that could make the 5.5-point spread appear too generous. That said the Jets did go 8-8 last year and the Raiders are still the worse team in the NFL according to player opinion polls and form over the last decade.

NFL Pick: Jets -5.5


Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 at Baltimore Ravens -1.5
NFL Betting Analysis: This is virtually a pick’ em, which suggests the bookmakers aren’t buying what the Ravens are selling. But the Ravens have been solid at home over the last four seasons, including last year’s disappointing run which ended without a playoff berth. What’s more, there’s been plenty to like about Kubiak’s offense in preseason. Bengals are of course a decent team but the Ravens at home are typically money in the bank.

NFL Pick: Ravens -1.5


Tennessee Titans +3.0 at Kansas City Chiefs -3.0
NFL Betting Analysis: Jake Locker is yet an unproven entity at centre for the most part while Alex Smith did his part and led the Chiefs on an incredible run last season all the way to the playoffs. Now that he’s got the lucrative contract he richly earned, it’s time to show what he’s worth. Chiefs went 11-5 SU overall and 5-3 SU last season at home, a run of form that included a nine-game winning streak.

NFL Pick: Chiefs -3.0


Buffalo Bills +6.5 at Chicago Bears -6.5
NFL Betting Analysis: Buffalo Bills are clearly uncertain about EJ Manuel’s abilities at centre, signing veteran Kyle Orton to the roster. With the quarterback situation thrust into doubt, it’s no wonder the bookies have released a rather big spread for Week 1 NFL betting. When making your NFL picks consider the Buffalo Bills on the road would appear to be easy pickings for Chicago Bears and their lightning offense, so long as the hosts keep it tidy on defense that is.

NFL Pick: Chicago -6.5


New England Patriots -3.5 at Miami Dolphins +3.5
NFL Betting Analysis: That’s almost a full point more than a field goal? That’s all the bookies are giving Tom Brady and his Patriots over the Miami Dolphins. Granted, last season both games were decided by four points only, with the Patriots and Dolphins each winning. But last season, Brady was playing without his favourite stud Gronkowski for almost the entire season. Surely, the Patriots can turn up the heat in Miami in week 1 NFL betting when teams aren’t still in the best shape.

NFL Pick: Patriots -3.5


San Francisco 49ers -4.0 at Dallas Cowboys +4.0
NFL Betting Analysis: Both the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys struggled in preseason. It’s almost hard to decide which of these two sides was worse. That said the Cowboys’ defensive woes however were the most concerning, along with the many questions surrounding Tony Romo. If those defensive issues spill forth into week 1, Colin Kaepernick should face little opposition as he drives into the end zone, be it through an aerial assault or on the ground.

NFL Pick: Niners -4.0

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