Week 1 NFL Prop Betting: NFL Picks

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, September 7, 2013 5:16 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 7, 2013 5:16 PM UTC

Week 1 is finally here and it’s time to take a look at prop bets in the NFL Odds, and there are several that I have my eye on as excellent value coming up this Sunday.

All of these odds are from Bet365, so follow along and let’s see if we can uncover value from some of these NFL Picks.

O/U Number of Touchdowns- Titans vs. Steelers

The NFL Odds have the number of touchdowns for this game set at 5.5, and the ‘Under’ holds the value here at +140. This game could be a very low scoring game, and some seem to be brushing that off. Five and a half touchdowns seem like way too much for these two teams. The Steelers’ defense is still very good and the Titans’ offense should struggle some in their first game of the season.

On the other side, the Steelers’ offense is going to be slow going to start the season, and they showed that during the preseason. Their offensive line is having some issues coming together, as the only holdover from last year’s team on that unit is the center, Maurkice Pouncey. I could easily see a lot of field goals in this game, because these two teams were not very good in red zone efficiency a season ago. The Titans were 22nd in red zone efficiency and the Steelers were outside of the top ten at 55%. This being the first game of the season, I see defense winning the battle in this one, so take the ‘Under’.

My Pick: ‘Under’ 5.5 Touchdowns +140


Team Total- Seahawks vs. Panthers

I have already given my pick on this game, but the spread and total are not the only value in this one. The total is 45 points and I love the under in this one, but the team totals are just as valuable. Seattle’s team total is 24.5 at Bet365 and I think the ‘Under’ is once again the play here. On the road and in the first game of the season, and Hawks likely wont steamroll the Panthers like they were doing to teams in the preseason. Seattles has averaged under ten points per game in their last three trips to Carolina.

Carolina’s defense was good last season and is even better this season. I could see another low scoring game between these two teams. These two played early in 2012 against one another, and the final score ended at 16-12 in favor of the Hawks. I can’t see the Hawks blowing anyone out in this game, let alone score 25 points or more.


My Pick: Hawks TT ‘Under’ 24.5 at Bet 365

Score three unanswered touchdowns

I have three bets for this prop, and all of them are a ‘No’. The value is there and the three games are Chicago vs. Cincinnati, Miami vs. Cleveland, and Arizona vs. St. Louis. The Bears and Bengals likely won’t be an offensive explosion, and I cant see one team taking advantage of the other to that extent. Plus if no team scores three unanswered times, you can net a profit of +135 for this game.

The other two are great value as well. The Dolphins and Browns will likely be a back and forth game and I can’t even see three field goals in a row in that one, and the Cards and Rams is strictly a value play. If neither team scores three unanswered times, one could get a +140 profit if it’s a back and forth game.

My Picks: CHI vs. CIN ‘No’ +135, MIA vs. CIN ‘No’ +120, ARI vs. STL ‘No’ +140

Check out my Guide to NFL Prop Betting here!

comment here