Week 1 NFL Picks: Where is All of the Action?

Jordan Sharp

Friday, August 7, 2015 9:04 PM UTC

Friday, Aug. 7, 2015 9:04 PM UTC

NFL football is almost here! Well, we have to get through the preseason first, but I will get more into that later this weekend and next week. For now we still have the luxury of looking ahead to Week 1. So where are most NFL bettors laying their money in the early Week 1 odds? 

Steelers vs. Patriots
Although we don’t have any Consensus data here at Sportsbook Review just yet for this game, because of the Tom Brady suspension being upheld and the high profile kickoff matchup, there are tons of people putting their cash on this game on September 10th. The evidence is in the line movement. After opening at -6 in favor of the New England Patriots earlier in the offseason, the line has dropped all the way to -3, and I doubt it moves much until we get some closure in deflate-gate. Look for this to be one of the most heavily wagered games in the Week 1 schedule.


Colts vs. Bills
According to our data, the Colts and Bills have had some hefty early money placed on both sides, but mostly on Indianapolis. Three quarters of the money wagered on this game seems to be coming from Indy-backers. What’s even more interesting is that despite most of the money coming in on the Indianapolis Colts, it doesn’t necessarily mean the big money is on them as well. In fact despite taking in most of the money so far on this game, the spread has dropped at most sportsbooks from -2 ½ to -2 in favor of the road Colts. This might be an instance where the public is on the Colts and the sharps are on the Bills. We have already identified the Bills as a team that could very well be undervalued this season if their quarterback situation is fluid. They could give the Colts a surprise in Week 1. Buffalo has the better defense and they are at home. Plus they added Rex Ryan, LeSean McCoy and Percy Harvin to an already talented team.


Packers vs. Bears
This is always a heavily betted game whenever it’s scheduled, but now that it’s in Week 1, everyone is all over it. Right now the Green Bay Packers come in anywhere from a -5 to a -7 favorite, and it appears as if most of the sharp and public money is on Green Bay. They should be as well. The Packers may be the NFC Champions this season, and the Chicago Bears may only get six wins. Plus, the Packers have owned the Bears in recent years, and on top of that, Jay Cutler is 1-10 lifetime against the Packers, he has a career completion percentage of 57% against them, and he has thrown 14 TDs to 21 INTs versus them as well. No wonder everyone is pouring their early Week 1 money onto this game.


Vikings vs. 49ers
Everyone seems to be jumping on the Minnesota Vikings bandwagon, because according to our data, they have more money on them in their Week 1 game against the San Francisco 49ers than any other team as of today. It’s not surprising either. Their defense should be pretty good this season, they are getting back one of the best running backs in NFL history this season, and their young quarterback looks poised for a breakout. Compare that to the 49ers, whom everyone has spent the last seven months trashing, and you get all the money on the Vikings, even on the road in San Francisco. It seems like it’s the sharps and public too. The NFL odds have gone from favoring the Niners at -4 ½, and now they are only -1 ½ favorites. 

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